FTSE 100

IEA Warns of Further Price Volatility as Middle East War Continues to Disrupt Global Oil Supply, Demand

The International Energy Agency expects to see further price volatility in 2026, with global oil inventories being depleted at a record pace since the Middle East war began in February amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.In its May oil market report published Wednesday, the IEA said global oil supply fell to 95.1 million barrels per day in April, while observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 4 million barrels a day in March and April.Looking ahead, global supply is anticipated to decline by 3.9 million barrels of oil per day on average in 2026, to 102.2 million barrels per day, under the assumption that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume from June.Meanwhile, the IEA now expects oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day on an annual basis this year to 104 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million-barrels-per-day below its projections before the war.

UK Plans Bill to Scale Up Homegrown Renewable Energy, King Charles III Says

UK Shares Flat Amid Growing Political Uncertainty; Intertek Shines

British equities were little changed on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100 down 0.04% at closing, as political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer and fresh signs of weakness in the retail sector weighed on sentiment.Four ministers have resigned from the government, adding to concerns over instability within the Labour administration and fueling speculation about Starmer's leadership."A growing rebellion against UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer staying on as Prime Minister could force him to resign and generate significant policy uncertainty. A ballot of grassroots Labour party members would decide his replacement, risking a leftward pivot in policy and a lesser commitment to fiscal consolidation. This would likely put downward pressure on UK asset prices in the near term," Berenberg Senior UK Economist Andrew Wishart said.Across the UK's retail sector, sales dropped 3.4% year over year on a like-for-like basis in April 2026, against the 3.1% rise in the previous month, according to data from the British Retail Consortium. The reading, which missed market expectations of a 0.8% increase, marked the first fall in retail activity since November 2024."April's sales fall was largely driven by the Easter shift, with food hit hardest. But weak consumer confidence also played a role as fears about the Middle East conflict driving up living costs led shoppers to rein in. Big-ticket purchases fell, with the recent recovery in furniture losing steam, and uncertainty around summer holidays hitting discretionary spend. With the World Cup coming, retailers hope it will provide a lift, and early signs show demand for TVs and sound systems picking up," BRC Senior Analyst Ian Bendelow said.In corporate news, telecommunications company Vodafone (VOD.L) said its loss attributable to owners of the parent for the 12 months ended March 31 shrank to 397 million euros from 4.17 billion euros year over year amid an increase in revenue. Vodafone was down 7.02%, becoming the blue-chip index's worst performer.On the upside, Intertek Group (ITRK.L) was the top stock, rising 6.43%, after receiving a fourth and final proposal from Swedish private equity giant EQT of 60 pounds sterling per share in cash plus Intertek's planned 2025 final dividend of up to 1.077 pounds per share. The British assurance, testing, and certification company's board rejected EQT's previous offer of 58 pounds per share in cash."ITRK's shares have not been above GBP60 since Q221 and have materially lagged key benchmarks and peers until recently," RBC Capital Markets said. "We see EQT's bid as a fair balance between compensating ITRK shareholders for future upside potential (whilst there is no guarantee that the current Board can deliver seamless upside), and creating a cushion of safety for EQT as it likely plans to prepare ITRK for the next stage on it strategic journey."

BRC: UK Retail Sales Decline 3.4% in April

Retail sales in the UK dropped 3.4% year over year on a like-for-like basis in April, against the 3.1% rise in the previous month, according to data from the British Retail Consortium published Tuesday.The reading, which missed market expectations of a 0.8% increase, marked the first fall in retail activity since November 2024.BRC attributed the contraction to the Easter shift and weak consumer confidence amid the Middle East conflict.

UK Shares Gain Amid PM Starmer's 'Reset' Speech; Compass Advances

London's FTSE 100 closed 0.36% in the green on Monday as Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed to reinforce ties with Europe as part of efforts to create a "stronger, fairer Britain.""The last government was defined by breaking our relationship with Europe. This Labour government will be defined by rebuilding our relationship with Europe by putting Britain at the heart of Europe so that we are stronger on the economy, stronger on trade, stronger on defence, you name it," Starmer said in his so-called reset speech.Amid calls for him to quit, Starmer's speech in Central London also included a proposal to nationalize British Steel, pending a public interest test and royal assent of the new bill, which will be formally presented to parliament this week."Strong domestic steel production is vital for our economy, and this legislation would allow us to ensure stability for British Steel's workers, suppliers and customers and avoid damaging disruption to crucial supply chains, while we consider options for the [Scunthorpe] site's future," said Business Secretary Peter Kyle.In corporate news, food services company Compass Group (CPG.L) climbed 2.34% after profit attributable to equity shareholders for the six months ended March 31 increased year over year to $1.07 billion from $919 million on revenue growth."A solid H1 performance ~1% ahead of consensus for underlying EBITA and EPS. Net new business wins of +3.8% for H1 a touch below the typical 4-5% range (with Q2 implied rate muddied by Q1 rounding), but promise of H2 acceleration should be taken reassuringly. Guidance for FY underlying EBITA growth ticked up by at least 1 pp which appears to be driven by organic operating leverage," RBC Capital Markets said in its quick take note.International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L) was one of the top stocks, rising 6.42%, amid plans to repurchase its outstanding 825 million euros of 1.125% senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2028.

UK's FTSE 100 Closes Week Downbeat; Intertek Group Shares in Red

British stocks finished the trading week in the red, with the FTSE 100 down 0.43% on Friday's close, as markets assessed a fresh batch of corporate updates while awaiting the outcome of the UK elections."The UK's ruling Labour Party has suffered heavy losses as the results of council elections start to come in. Most areas are yet to declare results, including in the crucial Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections. Some Labour figures are already out this morning calling on Prime Minister Starmer to go," ING analysts said. "Investors will be watching the cabinet closely for signs of pressure or even resignations, as markets weigh up the possibility of an increase in borrowing later this year under different leadership scenarios."On the housing market front, average house prices in the country ticked down 0.1% month over month in April, following a 0.5% decline in March, data from Halifax showed. On an annual basis, average house prices were up 0.4%, against the 0.8% rise in the previous month.In corporate news, Intertek Group (ITRK.L) rejected Swedish private equity giant EQT's takeover offer for the third time, saying the conditional proposal "significantly undervalues" the group and its prospects. EQT's latest improved offer of 58 pounds sterling per share for the British quality assurance provider comes after previously rejected proposals of 54 pounds per share and 51.50 pounds per share. The stock lost 2.70% at closing.Meanwhile, International Consolidated Airlines Group's (IAG.L) total revenue grew 1.9% year over year to 7.18 billion euros in the first quarter, while after-tax profit surged to 301 million euros from 176 million euros. The group mainly attributed the growth to continued robust demand for its networks and airline brands. The British Airways owner's shares closed the trading session 2.83% lower."IAG have made a strong start to the year, although IAG's guidance/ commentary implies downside to FY26E EBIT. IAG expects to recover ~60% of higher fuel costs (~EUR1.9bn higher based on the forward curve on the 5 May) in FY26E through cost and revenue actions, which could suggest a decline in EBIT of ~EUR0.7bn to ~EUR0.8bn y/y in FY26E to EBIT of ~EUR4.2bn to EUR4.3bn in FY26E vs VA cons of EUR4.66bn," RBC Capital Markets said in a quick take note. "IAG trades at an attractive valuation, given its margin and return profile. Relatively high margins leave IAG's earnings less at risk to higher fuel costs than for some peers, and we think there is greater scope to pass on FY26E fuel headwinds in long-haul."

Halifax: UK Monthly Average House Prices Down 0.1% in April

Britain's average house prices ticked down 0.1% month over month in April, after a 0.5% decline in March, according to data from Halifax published Friday.Analysts expected zero growth for the month, according to Investing.com data.On a yearly basis, average house prices in the UK were 0.4% higher, compared with a 0.8% gain in the previous month and an expected 0.6% uptick.

UK Shares Fall as Local Elections Kick Off; JD Sports Shines

London's FTSE 100 closed 1.43% lower on Thursday as local elections began in the UK.Market sentiment was off amid the possibility of a "significant setback" for the ruling Labour Party, which could increase pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, Danske Bank said."Grassroots Labour party members will choose the next party leader, who automatically becomes Prime Minister," Berenberg said. "Keir Starmer's replacement will therefore likely sit further left on economic policy. This raises the risk of another increase in business costs and/or looser fiscal policy, both of which could undermine the rate cuts and consequent pick up in GDP growth in our forecasts."Across Britain's construction sector, the downturn worsened in April as residential and civil engineering activity levels continued to decline amid rising input cost inflation. The S&P Global UK Construction PMI came in at 39.7, lower than 45.6 in the previous month and the consensus of 45.8 from Investing.com.In corporate news, energy and services company Centrica (CNA.L) dropped 5.32% to log the second-steepest decline among FTSE 100 constituents after guiding 2026 retail EBITDA towards the lower end of its outlook range, owing to the impact of warmer weather, commodity prices, and ongoing challenges in residential energy bad debt collection.On the contrary, JD Sports Fashion (JD.L) gained 8.62% to lead the blue-chip index after recommending a higher final dividend amid a lower attributable profit for fiscal 2026 and higher revenue year over year."JD Sports has delivered a mixed bag with its FY26 results with FY26 [pretax profit] inline with guidance, a sequential slowdown in 1Q [like-for-like] to -2.3%, FY27e PBT guidance c.-4% below consensus at the midpoint but a welcome [free cash flow] beat in FY26 combined with a new capital return framework of growing dividends and a rolling GBP200m share buyback," Deutsche Numis Research said. "The 3-year FY27-29 FCF guidance of at least GBP1.4bn will provide reassurance and is largely delivered in [capital expenditure] discipline and working capital improvement."

S&P: UK's Construction PMI Falls in April Amid Elevated Cost Inflation

Britain's construction sector remained in a downturn in April, as residential and civil engineering activity levels continued to decline, amid rising input cost inflation, S&P Global said Thursday.The S&P Global UK Construction PMI came in at 39.7, lower than 45.6 in the previous month and the consensus estimate from Investing.com of 45.8.The latest reading marks the weakest level in five months as elevated business uncertainty persisted due to the conflict in the Middle East.

UK Shares Rally on Potential End to War; Smith & Nephew Shares Fall

London's FTSE 100 closed 2.15% higher on Wednesday on signs of a potential US-Iran deal to end the war, while expansion across the UK's private sector accelerated."Trump announced a temporary pause to 'Project Freedom,' a naval operation in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a potential de-escalation. Oil prices declined following the announcement and continued to fall overnight, driven by expectations of progress toward a peace deal with Iran, as hinted by Trump. Trump's upcoming visit to China adds further complexity, given Beijing's close ties with Tehran and its economic reliance on oil transit through the strait," Danske Bank said.Back home, Britain's private sector output growth accelerated in April, indicating a moderate rise in manufacturing production and in services sector activity, data from S&P Global showed. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK PMI Composite Output Index rose to 52.6 from 50.3 in March. The flash estimate stood at 52."[This] improvement could easily prove short-lived as new business intakes remained subdued in comparison to the start of 2026," S&P Global Market Intelligence Economics Director Tim Moore said. "Survey respondents widely noted that the Middle East conflict and subsequent global supply chain disruptions had weighed heavily on business and consumer confidence."In corporate news, alcoholic beverage company Diageo (DGE.L) climbed 6.34% after affirming its fiscal 2026 guidance and logging a 2.3% yearly increase in net sales for the fiscal third quarter ended March 31 to $4.48 billion."While the spirits environment remains challenging, particularly in the US, Diageo's refreshed strategy and increased reinvestment should support a medium-term growth acceleration, we believe," BofA Global Research said. "The US remains a key headwind, with limited visibility on the timing and pace of a recovery, but performance elsewhere in the group is solid. We see further upside from accelerated deleveraging."On the downside, medical device manufacturer Smith & Nephew (SN.L) dropped 3.58% after launching a $500 million share repurchase program, maintaining its outlook for full-year 2026, and posting growth in first-quarter revenue to $1.50 billion from $1.41 billion."We expect investors to be incrementally reassured by the in-line revenue delivery in Q1 and the $500m share buyback programme. However, we do not see these results as materially de-risking 2026 guidance at this stage, and we continue to see potential downside to guidance in future periods," RBC Capital Markets said.

Final PMI: UK Private Sector Growth Accelerates in April

Britain's private sector output growth increased in April, indicating a moderate rise in manufacturing production and in services sector activity, data from S&P Global showed.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK PMI Composite Output Index rose to 52.6 from 50.3 in March, according to final data published Wednesday. The flash estimate stood at 52.Meanwhile, the services PMI came in at 52.7, compared with the previous month's 50.5 and the preliminary reading of 52.

UK's International Reserves Fall in April

The UK government's gross reserve assets declined to $226.61 billion in April from $230.29 billion in March, according to Bank of England data published Wednesday.The amount consists of $123.19 billion in foreign currency reserves, $7.31 billion in International Monetary Fund reserve position, $39.73 billion in special drawing rights, $46.09 billion in gold, and $10.29 billion in other reserve assets.

UK Shares Drop as Holiday-shortened Week Starts with HSBC Earnings, Geopolitical Tensions

After a long weekend in the UK, the FTSE 100 closed 1.40% lower on Tuesday as corporate earnings continued to pour in against the backdrop of a fragile US-Iran ceasefire.British banking group HSBC (HSBA.L) dropped 5.86% after reporting first-quarter results that were described as "mixed" by BofA Global Research, with profit after tax attributable to ordinary shareholders of the parent edging up year over year to $6.94 billion from $6.93 billion."HSBC printed an ok set of Q126 numbers," BofA said. "[Pretax profit] ex notable items was in line with consensus, with income beat (from fees and other income) offset by higher costs and impairments. Banking [net interest income] was in line. We are encouraged by HSBC's continued balance sheet and Wealth fee income growth, and remain confident in management's ability to manage cost. While [expected credit loss] was noisy in Q1, we are not concerned about the fundamental credit quality of HSBC's loan book."On the upside, Intertek Group (ITRK.L) rose 5.95% to lead the blue-chip index after confirming it had received a third unsolicited, indicative and conditional proposal from Swedish private equity firm EQT, offering 58 pounds sterling per share in cash, up from prior rejected bids of 54 pounds per share and 51.50 pounds per share."We raise ITRK to Outperform and our [price target] by ~30% to GBP58.50 following announcements of a strategic review to potentially split the business in two and of potential private equity interest in the whole group," RBC Capital Markets said. "We think the status quo is the least likely outcome and think key protagonists have their eye on an eventual US listing of the core testing assets to sit alongside highly comparable, highly valued UL Solutions."In the economic corner, the UK's new car registrations surged 24% year over year to 149,247 units in April, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The reading indicated a recovery in the car market from the negative tax change impact in 2025 and marked the best outturn since 2019, SMMT said."The mounting cost of compliance threatens to limit consumer choice, overall decarbonisation and the sector's competitiveness so the need for a rapid review of the transition to align policy with market realities is unchanged, else Britain's attractiveness as a vehicle market and manufacturing hub will be put at risk," said SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes.

SMMT: UK's New Car Sales Up 24% in April

The UK's new car registrations surged 24% year over year to 149,247 units in April, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders published Tuesday.SMMT said the reading indicates a recovery in the car market from the negative tax change impact in 2025, and marked the best outturn since 2019.For the four months to April, new car sales in Britain totaled 764,101 units, up 9% annually.

UK's FTSE 100 Closes Lower; NatWest, AstraZeneca Shares Down

London's FTSE 100 concluded the trading week on a downbeat note, closing 0.14% lower on Friday amid a busy day of corporate updates, economic data prints, and private sector data releases.The UK's manufacturing sector remained in the growth territory in April, with the final S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI reaching a 47-month high of 53.7, against the previous month's 51 and the flash estimate of 53.6. The latest reading, which sits above the neutral 50 threshold for the sixth straight month, is supported by higher output and improved new order intakes."The upturn comes with several of catches, however. Restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz are causing substantial disruptions to input deliveries, with supplier lead times lengthening to the greatest extent in almost four years," said S&P Global Market Intelligence Director Rob Dobson. "It should also be noted that the gain in production is partly the result of clients bringing forward purchases to mitigate expected price uplifts and supply disruptions. As this process unwinds later in the year, alongside declining business optimism, growth in the sector could cool while inflationary pressures remain on high heat."On the housing market front, annual house price growth in the UK climbed to 3% in April from 2.2% in March, according to Nationwide Building Society data, beating the consensus estimate of a 2.2% rise. On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted house prices were 0.4% higher, marking four consecutive months of growth and exceeding the expected 0.3% decline.In corporate news, NatWest Group's (NWG.L) first-quarter attributable net profit jumped to 1.43 billion pounds sterling from 1.25 billion pounds. The banking group's total impairment provisions stood at 3.74 billion pounds as of March 31, up from the year-ago 3.59 billion pounds, amid increased economic uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict. The group was the biggest loser on the index, shedding 3.35% at closing.AstraZeneca (AZN.L) also saw its shares fall 3.13% after the US Food and Drug Administration's Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted against approving the benefit risk profile of the drugmaker's investigational drug camizestrant combined with a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor as a first-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer.The London Stock Exchange will be closed on May 4 for the Early May Bank Holiday, with trading to resume the next day.

Nationwide: UK House Prices Rise in April Amid Middle East Uncertainty

House prices in the UK unexpectedly rose at a faster pace in April, signaling renewed momentum after a slowdown at the turn of 2026 and despite the geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Annual house price growth climbed to 3% in April from 2.2% in March, data from Nationwide Building Society showed Friday. The latest figure exceeded the consensus estimate of a 2.2% increase.Month over month, house prices were 0.4% higher on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking an increase for the fourth consecutive month and bucking the expected 0.3% decline. The average UK house price is now worth 278,880 pounds sterling in April, up from 277,186 pounds a month before."This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably. GfK's headline index has fallen to its lowest level since late 2023, reflecting households' more pessimistic views of the economic outlook and their own financial position over the year ahead," Nationwide's Chief Economist Robert Gardner said.Nationwide attributed the housing market resilience to the strength of household finances, noting that households accumulated "sizeable" savings in recent years and that debt relative to income is at its lowest level in 20 years. Nationwide said the market is also supported by improved housing affordability, which has seen limited impact thus far from higher interest rates, and a "modest" decline in mortgage rates."Looking ahead, UK economic growth is likely to be somewhat weaker and inflation higher than previously expected as a result of developments in the Middle East, although the ultimate impact will depend critically on the duration of the shock and the policy response," Gardner added.

UK's M4 Money Supply Rises 0.8% MoM in March

Britain's M4 money supply rose 0.8% month over month in March, against the revised 0.7% increase in February, the Bank of England said Friday.Analysts expected a 0.5% decrease for the month.

S&P: UK Final Manufacturing PMI Hits 47-month High in April

The UK's manufacturing sector remained in the growth territory in April, benefiting from a continued increase in production and an improvement in new order intakes.The final S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI stood at 53.7 in April, against the previous 51 and the flash estimate of 53.6, S&P Global said Friday. The final reading marks a 47-month high and stands above the 50 neutral threshold for the sixth straight month.

UK Consumer Credit Growth Slows in March; Mortgage Approvals Up

Net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals in the UK stood at 1.90 billion pounds sterling in March, following the revised 1.98 billion pounds in February, according to Bank of England data published Friday.The consensus estimate for the month was 1.8 billion pounds.Meanwhile, net mortgage approvals for house purchases came in at 63,531, compared with the revised 62,708 in the prior month and the expected 60,000.

Nationwide: UK Annual House Price Growth Rises to 3% in April

The annual growth rate of house prices in the UK increased to 3% in April from 2.2% in March, according to data from the Nationwide Building Society published Friday.The consensus estimate for the month was a 2.2% jump in housing prices.The average price of houses was 278,880 pounds sterling, up from 277,186 pounds a month ago.On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted house prices were 0.4% higher, against the 0.9% gain earlier and the expected 0.3% decrease.