FTSE 100

Bank of England Holds Key Rate Steady at 3.75% in July Meeting

The Bank of England on Thursday maintained its key rate at 3.75% as it noted continued economic uncertainty amid volatile crude and refined energy prices, which are higher than before the Middle East war began.The decision is in line with consensus expectations.The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 in favor of a hold, with the dissenters voting to raise the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4%. The MPC said it will continue to monitor economic risks related to the energy price shock and higher global trade tariffs and their implications on the inflation outlook.Based on the latest government data, the UK's annual inflation rate eased to 2.6% in June from the previous month's 2.8%, with the core rate stable at 2.6%. The BoE's medium-term inflation target stands at 2%.

Bank of England Holds Key Rate at 3.75%

SMMT: UK's Total Vehicle Production Down 1.2% in June

Britain's total vehicle manufacturing dropped 1.2% year over year to 68,200 units in June, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said Thursday.Car production slipped 1.3% to 65,483 units, while commercial vehicle output edged up 1% to 2,717 units.For the six months to June, total vehicle manufacturing fell 7.5% annually to 385,979 units.

British Equities Rise on Earnings Bonanza; Weir Group Surges

The UK's FTSE 100 climbed 0.24% on Wednesday's close, led by corporate heavyweights that published interim financial results during the session.Weir Group (WEIR.L) was the top gainer on the blue-chip index, rising 9.03%, after first-half attributable profit increased year over year to 128.6 million pounds sterling from 111.3 million pounds amid revenue growth. The engineering company confirmed its guidance for growth in constant currency revenue and operating profit."Strong Q2 orders (+10% organic) coming in 7% above consensus and H1 sales / profits are in line. FY outlook reiterated in line with guidance. Solid delivery and order acceleration should alleviate some market concerns after a softer Q1," RBC Capital Markets said.Glencore (GLEN.L) gained 2.13% as analysts said the overall half-year production report was better than expected. "We anticipated a strong H1 for Marketing, but the US$3.3B EBIT expected by the company in its upcoming results is 56% higher than our forecast and should underpin good [free cash flow] in the half. Elsewhere, a more mixed Q2 for volumes, with copper in line, zinc and thermal coal better than us (+11/5%), offset by met coal (-8%) and minor changes to coal guidance," BMO Capital Markets wrote.Meanwhile, Standard Chartered (STAN.L) jumped 3.77% after reporting higher half-year attributable profit and operating income. It also raised its full-year operating income growth guidance to the middle of the 5% to 7% range at constant currency, compared with the previous guidance of the bottom end of the range.In global news, Brent crude ascended once again after the US resumed fighting with Iran. While the US said it blocked an Iranian missile on its bases in the Middle East, Iran's IRIB News reported that the attack was in retaliation for "aggressive US actions."Next, investors await the Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday, which is widely expected to include no change in interest rates."We do not think that the BoE will follow through with its threat to raise interest rates for two reasons: 1) Inflation in wages and services prices - the part of inflation that the BoE can best influence - continue to trend lower. 2) We think US President Donald Trump wants to avoid high oil prices because high petrol prices would damage the Republican party's chances in the 3 November mid-term elections. If our reasoning holds, the BoE should turn more dovish over the remainder of the year, resume interest rate cuts in December, then lower the policy rate twice more to 3.00% in mid-2027," Berenberg said.

BofA Expects Bank of England to Maintain Key Rate in July Meeting; Potential Hikes Ahead

BofA Global Research forecasts the Bank of England will leave its key rate unchanged at 3.75% at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with a 7-2 vote in favor of a hold and a "high risk" of a 6-3 vote."We expect the overall message to be balanced. We expect the MPC to keep the door kept open to a hike, but don't expect it to give a strong signal about an imminent hike either, given uncertainty and limited second round effects so far. But the recent rise in energy prices imply that risks are tilted to a hawkish tone. But we also think the MPC could push back against market pricing, which is currently pricing close to three hikes," the research firm said in a Wednesday preview note."Based on our expectation of lower energy prices in H2 and given soft growth/ labour market, BoE's high bar for action, limited second round effects so far and restrictive rates, we expect the BoE on hold through the year ... But it is becoming a closer call than before, given the recent reescalation and the risk of a hike is rising."Analysts noted that markets have priced back in 50 basis points of cumulative bank rate hikes through July 2027, to 75 basis points as of late last week, following the recent collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

Berenberg: Bank of England to Hold Key Rate in July Meeting; December Rate Cut Possible

Berenberg expects the Bank of England to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% at its Thursday monetary policy meeting but "threaten" to increase it if energy prices rise a lot more or evidence of second-round effects materializes amid the continued US-Iran war."This provides a convenient insurance policy for the BoE: every time the Iran conflict flares up, investors revise up their interest rate expectations and mortgage borrowing costs rise, immediately squeezing demand and reducing the risk of persistent inflation," Berenberg Senior UK Economist Andrew Wishart said in a Wednesday note. "We do not think that the BoE will follow through with its threat to raise interest rates for two reasons: 1) Inflation in wages and services prices - the part of inflation that the BoE can best influence - continue to trend lower. 2) We think US President Donald Trump wants to avoid high oil prices because high petrol prices would damage the Republican party's chances in the 3 November mid-term elections."If this reasoning holds, Berenberg noted that it forecasts the UK central bank will adopt a more dovish stance for the remainder of 2026 and resume lowering rates in December, with a majority on the monetary policy committee voting in favor of a cut.The BoE is then expected to cut the bank rate two more times to 3% in mid-2027.

UK Consumer Credit Growth Accelerates in June; Mortgage Approvals Up

Net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals in the UK stood at 1.81 billion pounds sterling in June, following the revised 1.72 billion pounds in May, according to Bank of England data published Wednesday.The consensus estimate for the month was 1.70 billion pounds.Meanwhile, net mortgage approvals for house purchases came in at 58,200, compared with the revised 56,565 in the prior month and the expected 57,000.

UK's M4 Money Supply Up 0.8% MoM in June

Britain's M4 money supply gained 0.8% month over month in June, against the 0.1% uptick previously, the Bank of England said Wednesday.Analysts expected a 0.2% growth for the month.

UK Shares Jump Amid Earnings Influx, US-Iran Talks; Unilever Updates Guidance

London's FTSE 100 closed 0.90% higher on Tuesday as corporate earnings dominated the news, while geopolitical tensions eased.Unilever (ULVR.L), up 8.58%, led the blue-chip index after the consumer goods giant raised its full-year outlook, saying it expects underlying sales growth within its 4% to 6% multi-year guidance range, compared with previous guidance of the low end of that range, while forecasting 3% underlying volume growth."This was a very good quarter for Unilever, with even the bit that didn't go well (food in Europe) playing into management's decision to offload that business," RBC Capital Markets said, noting in-line profit and earnings. "Marketing/sales fell by 10 [basis points], but that hardly seems a big problem in the circumstances. Asia in particular benefitted from solid growth 1H in India (+8% in 2H), China (mid single digit) and Indonesia (+7%)."GSK (GSK.L) grew 4.08% after it reported 3% annual growth in turnover for the first half to 16.04 billion pounds sterling and affirmed its 2026 outlook. The drugmaker also intends to invest 400 million pounds in three years to upgrade its research and development facilities and open a new global research and development center in Cambridge, UK.On the downside, lender Barclays (BARC.L) tumbled 5.52% to become the FTSE 100's worst performer as yearly growth in first-half earnings and better-than-expected second-quarter results were offset by a weaker investment banking performance than US peers."[Second-quarter pretax profit] was a 4% beat vs consensus driven by income and impairments, partially offset by higher-than-expected costs," RBC said in another note. "On a divisional basis, the beat was driven by the IB. On an underlying pre-provision profit basis, there was a 2% beat. ... We expect the focus of today's call will be on the return on investment of an acceleration in strategic cost actions and weaker performance than US peers in the IB."In macro news, the UK's shop price inflation softened to 0.9% year over year in July, from 1.2% a month ago, according to a survey by the British Retail Consortium. The latest reading was below the consensus estimate and three-month average of 1.1%, which BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson attributed to promotions on food and alcohol during the FIFA World Cup, discounts on clothing and footwear, and other summer deals.On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump suspended attacks on Iran, with a plan to resume "very strong military action" if peace negotiations fall through, Deutsche Bank Research said, citing an interview with Axios. Talks are advancing and there is a good chance of reaching an agreement with Iran, Trump told reporters.

BRC: UK Shop Price Inflation Eases to 0.9% in July

The UK's shop price inflation softened to 0.9% year over year in July, from 1.2% a month ago, a survey by the British Retail Consortium showed Tuesday.The latest reading was below the consensus estimate and three-month average of 1.1%.BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson attributed the decline in inflation to promotions on food and alcohol during the FIFA World Cup, discounts on clothing and footwear, and other summer deals.

British Equities Gain on Corporate Activity, Easing Middle East Tensions

The UK's FTSE 100 closed 0.42% higher on Monday, supported by a flurry of earnings and corporate activity, and an improvement in investor sentiment after the US and Iran paused attacks against each other, easing concerns over a further escalation in Middle East tensions."After 13 consecutive nights of US strikes aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping, Washington has refrained from further attacks since late Friday, while Tehran has publicly stated that it has also suspended retaliatory operations. The pause falls short of a formal ceasefire, but both sides are presenting it as an opportunity for diplomacy, with Omani-mediated talks continuing over the weekend focused on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz," Deutsche Bank Research said.In corporate news, British telecommunications group Vodafone Group (VOD.L) led the top risers of the blue-chip index after it reported growth in total revenue for the fiscal first quarter ended June 30 and updated its outlook for fiscal 2027. The company's shares were up 4.84% at closing."The market is expected to respond positively to this release. However, there is no longer an upside on the stock, which has returned to its highs from last spring following Xavier Niel's plan to acquire a 16.2% stake in Vodafone from the Emirati E& group for c.(Euro)5.1bn (equivalent to 112.5p). The stock offers in fact a highly demanding low dividend yield of c.3.5%," commented Baader Europe.AstraZeneca (AZN.L) gained 1.72% after its first-half attributable profit grew to $5.59 billion from $5.37 billion earlier, while revenue jumped to $30.67 billion from $28.05 billion. The drugmaker also confirmed its 2026 outlook, including mid- to high-single-digit growth in total revenue.Meanwhile, DCC Energy's (DCC.L) board agreed to the terms of a takeover proposal of 67.9722 pounds sterling per share from Bridgepoint Group's (BPT.L) Energy Capital Partners Management and investment giant KKR. The proposal values the target at 5.75 billion pounds. At closing, DCC rose 0.88%, while Bridgepoint grew 4.79%.On the economic front, the Confederation of British Industry distributive trade survey's retail sales balance improved to -26% in July from -54% in the previous month. Analysts expected -45% for the month. "Distribution firms will welcome the Prime Minister's focus on supporting local high streets and will be looking for broader business rates reform to address one of the key constraints on investment and growth," CBI lead economist Martin Sartorius said.Investors will now turn their attention to UK money supply data for June on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday.

CBI: UK Retail Sales Balance Rises in July

The Confederation of British Industry distributive trade survey's retail sales balance improved to -26% in July from -54% in the previous month, according to data published Monday.The consensus estimate was -45% for the month.

British Equities Stage Recovery as Private Sector Output Rises

London shares ended the week on an upbeat note, with the UK's FTSE 100 at 0.93% in the green on Friday, amid a widespread rally in European stocks following the release of fresh private-sector output estimates for July.The flash UK PMI Composite Output Index hit a three-month high of 52.1 in July, rebounding from 49.3 in the previous month, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The services PMI also rose to a three-month high of 51.8 from 48.8, while manufacturing PMI grew to 52.8 from 52.5."Business optimism about the year ahead improved, reflecting some relief at reduced geopolitical tensions during the survey period and the associated drop in oil prices. But with Middle East worries flaring up again in recent days, a sustained cooling in the price data and upturn in business confidence is by no means assured," S&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said.Meanwhile, retail sales growth in the UK slowed in June to 1% from 1.2%, according to Office for National Statistics data. Despite the slowdown, the June data defied analysts' expectations of a 0.3% decline. Year over year, retail sales in the country grew 4.2% in June.In corporate news, Antofagasta (ANTO.L) resumed operations at the Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile. Heavy rains and power interruptions prompted the mining company to pause the processing plant and entire operations at the site. Its stock closed 0.28% higher.Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT.L) gained 0.24% after agreeing to sell its Russian Hygiene business to Arnest Management in a transaction expected to wrap up in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals, among other closing conditions."The disposal of the Russian hygiene entity (announced this morning) extricates the company from a business that cast a shadow over its Q1 results, and is expected to carry on doing so for the remainder of the year. That said, the emergence of unanticipated problems in that business in Q1 revived the perception of Reckitt as being disproportionately accident-prone. We don't think this changes that, but should nonetheless be well received," RBC Capital Markets noted.

S&P Global: UK Flash PMI Rises to Three-month High in July

Britain's private sector output returned to growth in July, supported by improved performances in both the manufacturing and services industries amid a rebound in new business volumes, flash data from S&P Global showed Friday.The flash UK PMI Composite Output Index hit a three-month high of 52.1, compared with 49.3 in the previous month and the consensus of 49.7.Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to a two-month high of 52.8 from the prior month's 52.5 and the expected 52. On the services side, the PMI came in at 51.8, against the previous 48.8 and the market forecast of 49.4.

UK's Monthly Retail Sales Rise 1% in June

Britain's monthly retail sales climbed 1% in June, after a 1.2% growth in May, according to data from the Office for National Statistics published Friday.Analysts expected a 0.3% dip for the month.On a yearly basis, UK retail sales rose 4.2%, against the revised 3.5% rise previously and the expected 2.3% gain.Excluding automotive fuel, retail sales were up 1.1% month over month and 5.4% annually, following an increase of 1.2% and a revised 4.9% jump earlier, respectively. The figures compare with the consensus estimates of a 0.4% monthly decline and a 3.2% yearly growth.

GfK: UK Consumer Confidence Hits Highest Since January

Britain's consumer confidence indicator increased to -17 points in July from -23 points in June, market research company Growth from Knowledge said Friday.The latest figure, which surpassed the consensus estimate of -22 points, was the highest since January.The improved reading was attributed to optimism regarding the appointment of Andy Burnham as prime minister and easing tensions in the Middle East, as the survey was conducted before recent escalations in the region.

London Shares End Lower as Earnings Take Center Stage

British equities closed lower on Thursday, with the UK's FTSE 100 0.73% in the red, as investors digested a fresh wave of corporate earnings.Centrica led the blue-chip index in retreat, closing 10.23% lower, after warning of a weaker outlook beyond 2026, particularly for its Centrica Energy business. The energy company, which swung to a profit in the first half, said Centrica Energy is expected to face a more challenging trading environment due to lower market volatility and actions to reduce risk exposure."2026 outlook reiterated, however CNA highlight a continued challenge in Centrica Energy with the trading business positioned for an excess supply of gas at the start of 2026 with the impact seemingly rolling into 2027. The cost transformation programme continues which helps to underpin future 2030 guidance, however we expect that an early downgrade to the trading business 2027 will likely be taken negatively," RBC Capital Markets noted.On the flip side, real estate group Segro (SGRO.L) closed 6.50% higher after saying it would be minded to recommend the fourth takeover proposal from US logistics property group Prologis (0KOD.L), while agreeing to extend the deadline for a firm offer to Aug. 12.Anglo American (AAL.L) also advanced 2.86% after reporting higher first-half production of copper, manganese ore and diamonds, offsetting lower output of premium iron ore, steelmaking coal and nickel. The miner reaffirmed its full-year 2026 production guidance for copper, premium iron ore and diamonds.On the macro front, data from the Confederation of British Industry showed that optimism among manufacturers in the UK remained negative in July, with the CBI Business Optimism Index at -36. Meanwhile, results of the CBI Industrial Trends showed total new orders in the sector were unchanged at -45 during the reporting month."We're seeing manufacturers being squeezed from both sides. Costs continue to climb while weak demand limits their ability to raise prices - leaving firms to absorb the pressure through shrinking margins, weaker investment and further cuts to employment," said CBI Senior Lead Economist Ben Jones.Meanwhile, the UK government under Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced 20% business rate cuts for nearly 32,000 pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027, with the typical pub expected to save about 1,100 pounds in the next financial year. The move is part of the government's plan to support high streets, encourage investment and reduce costs for local businesses.In other news, geopolitical risks continued to weigh on sentiment as the US conducted a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. US President Donald Trump warned of further attacks on Iranian infrastructure if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, while Tehran vowed retaliation.

CBI: British Manufacturers' Sentiment Deteriorates in July

Sentiment among UK manufacturers further deteriorated in July, with optimism on the business situation having a weighted balance of -36%, the Confederation of British Industry said Thursday.Meanwhile, export prospects also declined, coming in at -23%.

UK CBI: Total Order Books Balance Steady in July

Total new orders in the UK manufacturing sector were stable at -45% in July, unchanged from a month ago, the Confederation of British Industry's industrial trends survey showed Thursday.Analysts expected the reading to stand at -40%.