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India's Wholesale Price Inflation Accelerates to 3.88% in March

India's wholesale price inflation, measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), rose to 3.88% in March from 2.13% in February, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Wednesday.In the same month last year, wholesale inflation was lower at 2.25%.The rise in WPI was attributed to an increase in prices of crude petroleum and natural gas, other manufacturing, non-food articles, the manufacture of basic metals, and food articles, among others.The index for primary articles increased by 6.36% year-on-year to 197.3 in March from 192.9 in the previous month, while fuel and power inflation rose by 1.05% to 153.7 in the reported month from 147.6 in February.Manufactured products, the largest component of the WPI basket, were up by 3.39% to 149.5 in March from 148.2 a month ago.

India's Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.1% in March

India's unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in March from from 4.9% in February, driven by the urban unemployment rate, according to government data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on Wednesday.Unemployment in urban areas rose to 6.8% in March from 6.6% in the previous month, while rural unemployment was up at 4.3% in March from the previous month's level of 4.2%.Female unemployment increased to 5.3% in the reported month from 5.1% a month ago. The rural female unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%, while the urban female unemployment rate climbed to 9.0% in March from 8.7% in the previous month.The male unemployment rate also rose to 5.0% in March from 4.8% in February. Rural male unemployment rate in March grew to 4.4% from 4.2% in the preceding month, while urban male unemployment rate moved up to 6.1% in the reported month, from 5.9%.India's overall Labour Force Participation Rate slipped to 55.4% in March, compared with 55.9% in the previous month.

Indian Equities Gain on Wednesday as US-Iran Talks Hopes Lift Sentiment

Indian equity benchmarks moved higher on Wednesday, each gaining over 1.5%, as expectations of renewed talks between the U.S. and Iran lifted sentiment.The BSE Sensex rose 1,263.67 points, or 1.6%, to close at 78,111.24, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 388.65 points, or also 1.6%, to settle at 24,231.30.Markets reacted to reports indicating that Washington and Tehran could resume discussions shortly. U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly said talks may take place in Pakistan within the next two days. The development followed an inconclusive round of talks over the weekend and helped ease investor concerns.Crude oil prices declined further, with Brent trading near $95 per barrel, supporting market sentiment.Among stocks, Diamond Power Infrastructure rose over 2% after receiving a letter of intent worth 454.7 million rupees from Adani Electricity Mumbai, for cable supply from May 2026 to May 2027.Wipro gained over 3% after saying it will acquire select customer contracts of U.S.-based Alpha Net Consulting and its subsidiaries for up to $70.8 million.

IMF Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook for Most Asian Economies Amid Middle East War

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth estimates for most Asian economies for 2026, according to a recent release.The organization revised down its growth outlook for emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from a previous prospect of 5% in January, which was before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.Growth for the group will continue to decline to 4.8% in 2027, the IMF said.The organization projects China's economy growing 4.4% this year and 4% next year, while India will post growth of 6.5% for the next two years.Cumulative growth among Southeast Asia's five biggest economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, will fall to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.9%, although this will recover to 4.7% next year, the organization said.Individually, Vietnam will post the strongest growth of 7.1%, although this is still lower than the 8% growth last year.The rest of the economies in the group will also see lower growth, with Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1%, and Thailand at 1.5%.Among advanced economies in Asia-Pacific, Korea's growth will rise to 1.9% from 1% last year, while that of Australia will remain flat at 2%.Japan's growth will slow down to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 from 1.2% last year, according to the IMF.Taiwan will see lower expansion of 5.2% from 8.7% in 2025, while Singapore's growth will come to 3.5%, down from 5% last year.Hong Kong will also observe lower growth of 2.4%, compared to 3.5% in 2025.The IMF forecasts global economic growth to weaken to 3.1% this year from 3.4% last year, accounting for the impacts of the continued conflict in the Middle East.

India Wholesale Prices Rise in March on Fuel Costs

Jarred by fuel bills, India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose 3.88% on year in March, accelerating from a 2.13% on-year rise in February, reported the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MCI) on Wednesday.India's WPI rose 1.64% in March from February, added the MCI.Global petroleum and gas prices surged following the effective closure to shipping of the Strait of Hormuz in early March, through which about 20% of world fossil fuels supplies are transited.With supplies scarce, India's crude petroleum WPI rose 49.10% in March from February and 51.57% on year, according to the MCI.The WPI is distinct from the consumer price index (CPI), that measures prices in retail locations, faced by ordinary shoppers. The WPI provides insight into cost pressures within the supply chain and production sectors, and is considered one precursor to subsequent changes in the CPI.In March, India's Wholesale Food Index rose 1.85% on year, while the manufactured products WPI rose 3.39% on year, reported the MCI.No doubt, the price pressures stemming from Persian Gulf turmoils will be watched by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the nation's central bank.The RBI has an annual target-rate of inflation band of 4%, plus or minus 2%, on the nation's CPI.India's CPI in March rose 3.40% on year, accelerating from a 3.21% on-year gain in February, the Ministry of Statistics reported on Monday.Last week, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decided to keep its key policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, citing relatively strong economic growth but geopolitical tensions, and emergent inflationary pressures.

IMF Raises India's 2026 Growth Forecast to 6.5%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to 6.5% from its previous forecast of 6.4% made in January, according to its latest World Economic Outlook for April 2026, released on Tuesday.The Indian economy is expected to grow faster than previously anticipated despite the war in the Middle East and growing geopolitical tensions."For 2026, growth is revised upward moderately by 0.3 percentage point (0.1 percentage point relative to January) to 6.5%, led by positive contributions from the carryover of the strong 2025 outturn and the decline in additional US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 10%, which outweigh the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict," the IMF said.Growth is expected to be maintained at 6.5% in the fiscal year 2027.In India, growth for fiscal year 2025 is revised upward by 1.0 percentage point from its earlier October forecast to 7.6%. This reflects "better-than-expected outturn in the second and third quarters of the fiscal year and sustained strong momentum in the fourth quarter," the IMF said.Inflation in India is expected to return to near target levels after subdued food prices drove a marked decline in 2025.The IMF's India growth projection for the current financial year is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 6.9% and the World Bank's 6.6%.At the global level, the IMF warns that the Middle East conflict would be a drag on growth and lead to inflationary pressure."Under the assumption of a limited conflict, global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027," the IMF said.

Energy Shock Impact on India Inflation to Pick Up in Next Months, Nomura Says

Nomura expects the impact of the energy shock due to the Middle East conflict to gain ground in India following a limited effect in March, according to a Tuesday research note.India's CPI inflation ticked up to only 3.4% year over year in March from 3.2% in February, aided by government subsidies for consumers, weak food inflation, and stable core inflation, the equity research firm said.Further price pressures should pass through in the next few months amid a general increase in input cost pressure and heightened margin pressure for firms, according to Nomura.Food price inflation may face strains from below-normal rains and El Niño, the research firm said.Inflation is moving toward slightly under 4% in April, while core inflation could rise to 3.8% from 3.5% last month, Nomura said.The research firm forecasts headline inflation at an average of 5% in fiscal 2027 and core inflation at 4.5% in average.

Middle East Escalation Could Cost Asia Up to $299 Billion, UNDP Warns

The ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could inflict economic losses of up to $299 billion across Asia and the Pacific, as higher fuel, freight and input costs ripple through regional economies, UNDP's latest assessment report release Tuesday showed.The report said the shock is weakening household purchasing power, increasing food insecurity, straining public budgets and undermining livelihoods, particularly in countries heavily reliant on imported energy and food, as well as those exposed to Gulf trade routes, labor markets and remittance flows.It estimated that under a 28-day disruption scenario, regional output losses could range between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to 0.3% to 0.8% of GDP, with South Asia facing the most pronounced impact.Around 8.8 million people across 14 countries could fall into poverty, including more than 5 million in Iran, where the poverty rate may rise from 36% to 41.5%, according to the simulations.The report, prepared as of April 9, draws on inputs from 22 UNDP country offices covering 36 countries, alongside modelling and external data. It noted that outcomes will depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the conflict, with risks rising further if disruptions persist.

India's Inflation Quickens to 3.4% in March

India's inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.4% annually in March, faster than 3.21% in February, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on Tuesday.The overall increase was driven by a rise in both rural and urban inflation, which stood at 3.63% and 3.11%, respectively, in March.Food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index, climbed to 3.87% in March from 3.47% in February. Rural food inflation was recorded at 3.96%, while urban food inflation came in at 3.71%.Housing inflation for March was provisionally at 2.11%, with rural housing inflation at 2.54% and urban at 1.95%, the data showed.

India's Inflation Accelerates to 3.4% in March

Asian Development Bank Tempers APAC GDP Forecasts for 2026

The Middle East outlook and consequent higher oil prices will temper the economic expansion of developing countries in the Asia Pacific in 2026, reported the Asian Development Bank (ADB) late Friday.Economic growth in developing Asia is expected to slow to 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the previous 5.4% estimate, weighed down by the Persian Gulf conflict and continuing trade uncertainty, said the ADB.The Asian Development Bank (ADB) makes economic projections for developing nations in Asia, focusing on gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation outlooks. The ADB forecasts cover 46 nations, including China and India, and all 10 ASEAN members."Higher energy prices will raise production costs and consumer prices, while export growth will normalize following last year's front-loading ahead of US tariff increases," said the ADB. "Solid domestic demand---particularly in South Asia and developing Southeast Asia---will continue to anchor growth."Regional inflation is projected to rise to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, up from 3% last year, added the ADB.GDP growth in China is projected to decline to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, down from 5% in 2025, "with continued property market weakness and slower export expansion expected to weigh on activity," said the ADB."In India, growth is forecast to ease to 6.9% this year from 7.6% last year, before rising to 7.3% next year, underpinned by resilient domestic consumption," added the ADB, a Manila-based regional bank that lends on infrastructure and other projects.

Indian Equities Fall on Monday as Ceasefire Talks Fail

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Monday after U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend failed to produce a deal.The BSE Sensex dropped 702.68 points, or 0.9%, to close at 76,847.57, while the NSE Nifty 50 fell 207.95 points, or also 0.9%, to settle at 23,842.65.Sentiment weakened after no agreement emerged from weekend talks, held in Pakistan. Meanwhile, the U.S. has also announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, adding to the investor concerns.Markets remain cautious as a prolonged conflict could keep volatility high, hurting global growth.In corporate updates, Oriental Rail Infrastructure (BOM:531859) secured a 15.7-million-rupee order from Rail Coach Factory, Kapurthala, for supplying seats and berths.Laxmi Organic Industries (NSE:LXCHEM, BOM:543277) has appointed Harshvardhan Goenka as interim chief financial officer, effective April 14.

Asia Week Ahead: GDP Growth; Trade Data; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, markets will be focused on a slate of monthly data that will help investors assess how the Middle East conflict is feeding into economic conditions across the region.The week opens Monday with New Zealand's services sector survey and India's March inflation print, as well as a scheduled speech by the Bank of Japan's governor that could offer clues on the timing of a possible rate hike.Attention then shifts Tuesday to China's trade figures and a monetary policy decision in Singapore, alongside business and consumer confidence readings from Australia and industrial production data from Japan.Midweek brings trade and labor market data from India and South Korea, while Thursday is headlined by China's first-quarter GDP report and a broad batch of activity indicators.Friday rounds off the week with Malaysia's preliminary first-quarter GDP and inflation data, as well as Singapore's March trade numbers, including non-oil exports.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 13The week kicked off with a report indicating New Zealand's services sector shrank for the third consecutive month as the conflict in the Middle East impacted consumer confidence.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for March came in at 46.0, down 1.6 points from February and 6.6 points lower than the long-term average of 52.8."So poor was the PSI reading that our combined PMI/PSI indicator is suggesting the economy could soon be contracting," said Stephen Toplis, BNZ's head of research.Outside of New Zealand, markets will be on the look out for India's March inflation print.A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated that the pace of price increase may have quickened during the month to around 3.5% year on year from the 3.2% recorded in February.The March print will give observers the first real look on how the Indian economy is faring after war broke out in the Middle East.While overall inflation is expected to rise, core inflation--which excludes the impact of some items--is likely to clock in at below 4%, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to shy away from a hawkish stance near term, economists at DBS said, the Wall Street Journal reported.Meanwhile, markets will also be closely following a scheduled speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the possible timing of a rate hike. The central bank is reportedly considering a rate hike this month to counter price pressures from the Iran war.Elsewhere, Indonesia reported a 6.5% annual rise in retail sales during February, quickening from the 5.7% growth witnessed a month prior.TUESDAY, April 14China's trade figures will capture headlines Tuesday.The world's second-largest economy could report a trade surplus of $112 billion in March, higher than the $91 billion captured in February, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Despite the rising surplus, economists at ING said they expect March export growth to moderate from the figures seen in the first two months of the year.A monetary policy decision and an advance estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter is expected in Singapore.Unlike other economies, Singapore tweaks its currency exchange rate rather than its domestic interest rates to control inflation. While the Monetary Authority of Singapore has not adjusted its policy since April 2025, it is now expected to tighten the valves in response to the Middle East conflict, according to a survey of economists compiled by Bloomberg, CNA Digital reported.Meanwhile, Singapore's economy likely slowed during the first three months of the year due to a pullback in manufacturing activity, the WSJ reported, citing Barclays economists.The city-state's economy expanded 6.9% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and by 5% during the entirety of the year.In January, the city-state had upgraded its 2026 forecast to a range of 2% to 4%, with growth outlook raised to 3%. However, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said in March the government will reassess its GDP forecast following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence in Australia are expected.Consumer confidence was near the bottom of its 18-month range in March, and the April survey was shaping up for a bigger drop as consumers reckoned with the implications of the conflict in the Middle East, the National Australia Bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, the March business confidence report should capture the flow through impacts from the energy crisis and higher borrowing costs in Australia, Westpac said."Widespread supply disruptions and soaring energy costs are likely to be reflected in higher business input and output costs," the firm said in a note.Japan's industrial production stats will also be in focus on Tuesday, while India will release wholesale price inflation data the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 15A slew of macro data from India and South Korea will be in the news Wednesday.India will report its trade figures for March which could show a widening of the trade deficit to $32.75 billion from $27.1 billion in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Labor data, due the same day, could show unemployment climbed to 5.1% from 4.9% in February, according to another Trading Economics consensus estimate.South Korea will similarly report March labor data and export and import prices.Unemployment in South Korea has been on a downward trajectory since December when it stood at 3.3%. The most recent reading was of 2.9%.Japan's machinery orders stats are also scheduled for release Wednesday.THURSDAY, April 16Markets will turn their attention to a flurry of data coming in from China, including the closely watched GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the year.Analysts place China's Q1 GDP growth rate at 4.9% year on year, rising from the 4.5% recorded in the closing months of 2025, the WSJ reported. Economists at DBS attributed the expected rise in growth to a jump in overseas demand for Chinese goods, the WSJ added.The GDP release will be accompanied by China's house price index, offering an insight into new home prices across 70 cities that markets use as a benchmark. New prices are expected to stay in negative territory, though any moderation would be viewed positively, economists at ING said.Additional releases will include China's industrial production data, retail sales figures, and unemployment stats."Other than industrial production, which we expect to grow around 5.5% YoY, economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March," ING said in a preview.Labor data from Australia is also expected Thursday.The National Australia Bank expects the jobless rate to stay at 4.3%, with employment rising by 25,000. "While the survey period captures the escalation in the Middle East conflict, it is likely too early to see a response to this reflected in the data," NAB said in a note.The Reuters Tankan Index for April, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.FRIDAY, April 17The week rounds off with Malaysia's preliminary GDP growth rate figures for the first quarter of the year.Economists at ANZ expect first-quarter growth to ease to 5.3% from the 6.3% recorded in the final quarter of 2025, the WSJ reported. Despite stronger agriculture output, the Malaysian economy saw industrial and retail activity moderate during the opening months of 2026, the report said, citing ANZ.Malaysia's inflation data is also expected Friday, with Trading Economics forecasting the pace of price increase to quicken to 1.8% year on year from the 1.4% recorded in February.Singapore reports March trade data, including non-oil exports, the same day.

ADB Projects India's GDP growth at 6.9% for Financial Year 2026-27

The Asian Development Bank has projected India's economic growth, measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), at 6.9% for the financial year ending March 31, 2027, dragged by external pressures, the global agency said in its Asian Development Outlook report released on Friday.The real GDP grew by 7.6% in the financial year ended March 2026.The lender has also forecast GDP growth at 7.3% in the following fiscal year 2027-28, driven by strong domestic demand and easing financial conditions, as consumption and investment benefit from favorable policies and the external environment improves."Despite a worsening global economic and geopolitical environment, growth in India is forecast to remain robust at 6.9% in fiscal year 2026 (2026-27)," the report said, adding that domestic demand would drive economic activity.The projection marks an upward revision from its earlier estimate of 6.5% for the financial year 2026-27 made in December 2025.The report highlighted that the growth momentum will be supported by lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and sustained internal consumption, despite global uncertainties."On the supply side, manufacturing and services growth are expected to remain strong, aided by domestic reforms and by public spending on rural welfare programs, price support for key agriculture commodities, and resilient rural incomes," the ADB said.Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.5% in the financial year 2026-27 amid conflict in the Middle East, before easing to 4.0% in the financial year 2027-28 as food prices moderate.

Trump Declares Immediate U.S. Navy Blockade of Hormuz After Iran Talks Fail

U.S. President Donald Trump warned on social media that the U.S. Navy would immediately begin blockading all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz after a failed talk with Tehran.Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sunday that while the goal is eventually to reach an "all being allowed to go in, all being allowed to go out" arrangement, Iran has prevented this by citing vague concerns about undisclosed mines."Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, 'There may be a mine out there somewhere,' that nobody knows about but them," Trump wrote.Trump further directed the Navy to intercept any vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran while also ordering the destruction of mines allegedly laid by Iran in the strait and warning that any Iranian attack on U.S. or peaceful vessels would result in them being "BLOWN TO HELL."Meanwhile, Reuters News, citing the U.S. Central Command, reported that the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports is set to begin at 10 a.m. ET on Monday.The command clarified that freedom of navigation would remain unaffected for ships transiting the strait to non-Iranian ports, with formal notices to be issued to commercial mariners beforehand, the newswire said.

Indian Equities Rise on Friday Ahead of US-Iran Talks

Indian benchmarks indices closed higher on Friday, supported by optimism around upcoming U.S.-Iran talks that could ease geopolitical tensions.The BSE Sensex gained 918.60 points, or 1.2%, to end at 77,550.25, while the NSE Nifty 50 rose 275.50 points, or also 1.2%, to settle at 24,050.60.Markets saw steady buying through the session. Banking and financial stocks led the gains. Investors are tracking the outcome of peace talks scheduled over the weekend, as it could influence crude oil prices and near-term market direction.Among stocks, RailTel Corp. of India (NSE:RAILTEL, BOM:543265) edged higher after securing a 231.8 million rupee order to develop an online portal for a Goa government body.Oasis Securities (BOM:512489) jumped 5% after appointing Surendra Kumar Joshi as chief financial officer with effect from Friday.

Indian Equities Slip on Thursday Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Thursday as renewed geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices weighed on sentiment.The BSE Sensex fell 1.2%, or 931.25 points, to finish Monday's session at 76,631.65, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped 0.9%, or 222.25 points, to 23,775.10.Investors were cautious after fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon reduced hopes for a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Canara Bank's (NSE:CANBK, BOM:532483) board has extended Hardeep Singh Ahluwalia's additional charge as managing director and CEO for three months until June 30.Dilip Buildcon (NSE:DBL, BOM:540047) joint venture DBL-RBL won a 2.68-billion-rupee contract from the Gujarat government. The project covers the design and construction of the Ged Barrage across the Sabarmati River, including protection and allied works.