S&P/ASX 200

Australia's Jobless Rate Remains at 4.3% in March, Participation Rate Slips to About 67%

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Open Flat as Trump Signals Optimism on Iran Deal Talks; Viva Energy Group Refinery in Geelong on Fire

Australian shares are expected to open flat on Thursday as markets weighed renewed optimism from the Trump administration over a possible Iran deal against escalating threats of tighter sanctions on Iranian oil buyers and ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%.In the macroeconomy, Australia's labor force report is due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, A fire erupted at Viva Energy Group's (ASX:VEA) oil refinery in Geelong overnight, and firefighters are still working to bring it under control, multiple media outlets reported Thursday.Rio Tinto Group (ASX:RIO) commissioned a new alumina conveyor at its BC Works smelter in Kitimat, Canada, the company said on Thursday.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.1% or 7.9 points to close at 8,978.70 on Wednesday.

IMF Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook for Most Asian Economies Amid Middle East War

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth estimates for most Asian economies for 2026, according to a recent release.The organization revised down its growth outlook for emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from a previous prospect of 5% in January, which was before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.Growth for the group will continue to decline to 4.8% in 2027, the IMF said.The organization projects China's economy growing 4.4% this year and 4% next year, while India will post growth of 6.5% for the next two years.Cumulative growth among Southeast Asia's five biggest economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, will fall to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.9%, although this will recover to 4.7% next year, the organization said.Individually, Vietnam will post the strongest growth of 7.1%, although this is still lower than the 8% growth last year.The rest of the economies in the group will also see lower growth, with Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1%, and Thailand at 1.5%.Among advanced economies in Asia-Pacific, Korea's growth will rise to 1.9% from 1% last year, while that of Australia will remain flat at 2%.Japan's growth will slow down to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 from 1.2% last year, according to the IMF.Taiwan will see lower expansion of 5.2% from 8.7% in 2025, while Singapore's growth will come to 3.5%, down from 5% last year.Hong Kong will also observe lower growth of 2.4%, compared to 3.5% in 2025.The IMF forecasts global economic growth to weaken to 3.1% this year from 3.4% last year, accounting for the impacts of the continued conflict in the Middle East.

Credit Losses for Asia-Pacific Banks to Rise by $180 Billion Under Prolonged Middle East War, S&P Says

Credit losses for Asia-Pacific banks could surge by about $180 billion over the next two years under a downward scenario of a prolonged war in the Middle East, S&P Global Ratings said in a Wednesday release.Total biennial credit losses could hit $910 billion over 2026 and 2027 under this scenario, compared with $730 billion under S&P's base case.The rise in credit losses to total loans would hit Vietnam, Indonesia, and India the most under this scenario, S&P said.Under S&P's base case, banks will feel a weaker impact from the war since direct exposures to the Middle East are low and indirect ones are manageable.In a downward scenario, banks will likely be hit by secondary effects on the household, corporate, and government sectors, credit analyst Gavin Gunning said.The impact will be felt more by banks with sizable exposures to susceptible corporate sectors such as airlines, energy, chemicals, and transportation.However, S&P expects bank buffers to be resilient at current rating levels under a downside case.Of more than 400 S&P-rated financial institutions in the region, 92% have ratings with a stable outlook, while only 2.9% are negative.

Australian Shares Flat; Virgin Australia Says Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance Unchanged, Fiscal H2 EBIT Expected to Rise

Australian shares were flat with a positive bias on Wednesday's close as investors weighed reports of a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran.The S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed to close at 8,978.70.US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan over the next ​two days, even as a US naval blockade ⁠on Iranian ports continued. Brent crude oil futures rose 1% to $95.77 per barrel.On Wall Street, the Nasdaq was up nearly 2% on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%.On the domestic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its economic growth projections for Australia, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate now expected to come in at 2% in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2.1%, and 1.7% in 2027, down from the earlier forecast of 2.2%.Australia's private sector credit is projected to grow by 7.2% year over year this year, tracking at its fastest pace since 2022, before slowing to 5.7% year-over-year by late 2027, ANZ said in a report.Australian consumer spending rose 2.1% in March, month-on-month, driven by a sharp increase in fuel spending due to higher prices, according to NAB's consumer spend trend report.In company news, Virgin Australia Holdings (ASX:VGN) said that its fiscal year 2026 financial guidance remains unchanged, with the underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and underlying EBIT margin in the second half expected to be higher than the prior-year period. Its shares were up 7% on market close.Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) acquired an exclusive license to a patented chimeric antigen receptor technology platform to boost the effectiveness of its products. Its shares rose 7% at close.Lastly, Yancoal Australia (ASX:YAL) said that it entered into binding transaction documentation with EMR Capital Advisors, Kestrel Coal (EMR), Adaro Capital, and EMR Capital Management to acquire Kestrel Coal Group, which holds an 80% interest in the Kestrel coal mine joint venture in Queensland, for up to $2.4 billion. Its shares closed down 2%.

IMF Revises Down Australia's GDP Growth Rate As It Flags Global Economic Slowdown

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its economic growth projections for Australia, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate now expected to come in at 2% in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2.1%, and 1.7% in 2027, down from the earlier forecast of 2.2%, according to a Tuesday report.Global economic growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, while global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027, assuming the conflict in the Middle East remains limited in duration and scope, according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook. Under this scenario, oil prices are expected to average $82 per barrel for 2026.A longer or broader conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations regarding artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could significantly weaken growth and destabilize financial markets, IMF cautioned.Australia's consumer price growth is projected to clock in at 4% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, exceeding most advanced economies.

Australia's Consumer Spending Rise 2.1% in March, NAB Says

Australian consumer spending rose 2.1% in March, month-on-month, driven by a sharp increase in fuel spending due to higher prices, according to NAB's consumer spend trend report published on Wednesday.Consumer spending rose 8.4% compared with the same month last year.Excluding fuel, spending rose 0.7% month on month and 7.5% on a yearly basis, supported by higher food spending and rising construction and service costs."Consumer spending rose 2.1% in March, driven by a sharp 33.5% increase in fuel spending following the fuel price surge," said NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld.Fuel spending was up 34% in March and 25.7% higher over the year, with price growth outpacing spend per transaction in March, pointing to precautionary purchases and smaller refuelling top‑ups as prices rose, the report added.Goods spending rose 3.7%, and services spending rose 0.4% in the month, led by utilities & telecoms.Consumers began to scale back on discretionary services in March as spending shifted toward non‑discretionary items, led by fuel, while categories such as cafes and restaurants, hotels, and travel declined.Consumer spending grew across all states and territories in March, with South Australia and Queensland seeing the strongest growth, while over the past year, spending growth nationally has been driven primarily by essential categories, particularly utilities and fuel."For now, consumers have absorbed higher fuel expenses with only a small impact on their broader spending. However, there is clear underperformance among discretionary categories, particularly hospitality, travel, and personal services," Auld said."We expect renewed cost-of-living pressures to continue to place ongoing pressure on household budgets and weigh on discretionary purchases," Auld added.

Australia's Private Sector Credit to Grow Over 7% Year Over Year, ANZ Says

Australia's private sector credit is projected to grow by 7.2% year over year this year, tracking at its fastest pace since 2022, before slowing to 5.7% year-over-year by late 2027, ANZ said in a report on Wednesday.Since the last credit forecasts in February, the Middle East conflict has escalated, and two additional 25 basis points rate hikes have been added in the RBA profile, leading to a projected cash rate peak of 4.35%.Early signs indicate a slowdown in housing credit growth, with housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne falling below their October 2025 levels.Capital city prices are expected to rise 2.8% this year and 2.1% in 2027, which should see the pace of housing credit ease and grow 6.9% year over year this year and 5.4% next year, ANZ said.Non-financial business credit has shown resilience and it is expected to grow solidly for a few months before higher rates and economic uncertainty start to impact numbers.Meanwhile, personal credit growth, which has trended higher over the past year, is anticipated to ease to 2.1% year over year by year-end and 1.5% by the end of 2027.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Information Technology Stocks Advance, Energy Sector Struggles

Information technology stocks advanced 2% at midday Wednesday.Shares of WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) and Xero (ASX:XRO) rose 2% in recent trade.Meanwhile, the energy sector struggled, shedding 2%, as global oil demand is expected to plunge due to disruptions stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict.Shares of Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) fell nearly 3% in recent trade, while those of Santos (ASX:STO) were down over 2%.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Rise on US-Iran Talk Hopes; Virgin Australia Says Fiscal 2026 Guidance Unchanged, Fiscal H2 EBIT Expected to Rise

Australian shares are poised to rise on Wednesday as easing oil prices and renewed hopes of US-Iran talks offset concerns over Middle East tensions, even as risks persist following reports of a blockade of Iranian ports and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%, 2%, and 0.7%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the release of Australia's labor force report on Thursday.In corporate news, Virgin Australia Holdings (ASX:VGN) said that its fiscal 2026 financial guidance remains unchanged, with the underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and underlying EBIT margin in the second half expected to be higher than the prior-year period.Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) reported group production of 170,137 ounces of gold for the quarter ended March, compared with 179,778 ounces a year earlier.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.5% or 44.8 points to close at 8,970.80 on Tuesday.

Australian Consumer Confidence Declines in April on War Outlook

Australia's consumer confidence levels "crashed" in March, marking the largest monthly decline since the COVID-19 era and striking low levels not seen since 2023, reported the Westpac-Melbourne Institute on Tuesday.The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 80.1 in April from 91.6 in March, as consumers faced fuel bills and higher interest rates, said the Institute.In April, the "spike in fuel prices following the US-Israel war on Iran and a further 25 basis point interest-rate increase (by the Reserve Bank of Australia) are again putting finances under intense pressure," advised the Institute.Readings above 100 on the Australian consumer index point to optimism, while below that level suggest pessimism.In April, Australian fears of job loss rose to a near six-year high, while consumers became much less bullish on the house-price outlook as well, according to the monthly Institute survey.After generally rising since 2022, the Australian consumer sentiment index is back near historical lows, "albeit above the extremes seen at the onset of the (COVID-19) pandemic and during the recessions of the early 1990s and 1980s," said the Westpac-Melbourne Institute.The "time to buy a major household item" sub-index in April fell to 83.3 from 98 in March, another sign of waning consumer confidence.Household outlooks in April also soured. "Near-term expectations for the economy and family finances also deteriorated sharply, suggesting consumers see little prospect for improvement and are bracing for more difficulties," reported the Institute.The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey polls about 1,200 Australian adult consumers (or households), each month.

Persian Gulf Turmoils Douse Australian Business Confidence in March

Business confidence in Australia "plunged" in March due to the Persian Gulf conflict, echoing the gloom of the 2008-9 Global Financial Crisis, and COVID-19 era, NAB Economics reported on Tuesday."The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East saw business confidence fall...to negative 29 index points, the second-largest monthly fall in the survey's history," said NAB Economics. "Falls of this magnitude have previously only been seen in the GFC and the onset of COVID."Before March, business confidence index had been flat, at zero.In better news, while Australian confidence declined in March, perceived business conditions were roughly constant according to survey respondents, reported NAB Economics, a part of NAB, the large bank."Meanwhile, business conditions fell only 1 point to 6 index points in March, reflecting the fact that while the global news backdrop has impacted sentiment, it is still early in terms of the flow through to activity," said NAB Economics.However, the category of forward orders fell sharply in March, "erasing gains seen earlier in the year and pointing to rising caution among firms," added NAB Economics.Australian enterprise also reported rising costs of operation. The cost of goods to operate in March rose at a 3% quarterly rate, while labor costs rose at a 1.5% rate, said NAB.In March Australian businesses also reported easing sales and slipping profitability, according to survey results.The NAB Monthly Business Survey contacts about 600 small, medium, and large non-agricultural companies to assess business confidence and conditions, by telephone, each month.

Australian Shares Rise; Qantas Airways Raises FY26 Fuel Cost Forecast Expectation to Up to AU$3.3 Billion

Australian shares rose on Tuesday's close as investor sentiment was buoyed by optimism around a peace deal between the US and Iran, even as the US naval blockade of Iran took effect.The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.5% or 44.80 points to close at 8,970.80, reaching a new 20-day high.US President Donald Trump said Iran had called the White House over a potential peace agreement.Both countries had left room for further negotiations, and there was forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, Reuters reported, citing sources.Brent crude oil futures declined 1.5% to $97.90 per barrel.On the domestic front, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply around 13% to 80.1 in April from 91.6 in March, as rising fuel prices and interest rates added to cost-of-living pressures and weighed heavily on economic sentiment.Business confidence in Australia fell 29 points to negative 29 in March, its lowest level since April 2020 and one of the sharpest declines since the global financial crisis and COVID-19, following the Middle East conflict, National Australia Bank said in a report.Australia's consumer confidence lifted 2.2 points in the April 6 to April 12 week to 64.5 points, recording its second consecutive weekly rise, while the four-week moving average fell 1 point to 62.2 points, ANZ said in a report.In company news, Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) now expects fuel cost for the fiscal second half to be AU$3.1 billion to AU$3.3 billion, as February jet refining margins peaked at about $120 per barrel. The airline said it has hedged about 90% of its fiscal H2 crude oil exposure but remains largely exposed to movements in jet refining margins.Cleanaway Waste Management (ASX:CWY) now expects fiscal 2026 earnings before interest and taxes of AU$460 million to AU$480 million, down from a previous range of AU$480 million to AU$500 million, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict. Its shares declined 2% at close.Lastly, Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) signed a commercial manufacturing agreement for its copper-64 SAR-bisPSMA next-generation diagnostic imaging agent with Nucleus Radiopharma. The agreement includes manufacturing at Nucleus Radiopharma's facility in Rochester, Minnesota. Clarity's shares closed down 5%.

Business Confidence in Australia Plunges in March on Middle East Tensions, NAB Says

Business confidence in Australia fell 29 points to negative 29 in March, its lowest level since April 2020 and one of the sharpest declines since the global financial crisis and COVID-19, following the Middle East conflict, National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) said in a Tuesday report.Business conditions remained at 6 index points, slightly below the long-run average of 7, as an improvement in employment was offset by declines in trading and profitability."The divergence between confidence and conditions highlights how quickly sentiment can respond to global shocks, even as activity data remains more stable in the near term," said Gareth Spence, NAB head of Australian economics.Industry conditions were mixed, with mining and transport and utilities recording the strongest gains, while wholesale experienced the largest decline, the report added.By state, conditions improved in Western Australia and South Australia by 17 and 9 index points, respectively, while Victoria recorded the largest decline, falling by 11 points.Capacity utilization rose past 83% and remained well above its long-run average, while forward orders fell 7 points back below their long-run average, and capital expenditure declined 3 points, reversing last month's increase but still staying elevated."The impact on measures of costs and prices has been immediately obvious, with purchase cost growth in quarterly terms more than doubling to 3% and product price growth rising to 1.1%," Spence added.

Australia's Weekly Consumer Confidence Rises, ANZ Says

Australia's consumer confidence lifted 2.2 points in the April 6 to April 12 week to 64.5 points, recording its second consecutive weekly rise, while the four-week moving average fell 1 point to 62.2 points, ANZ said in a Tuesday report.Weekly inflation expectations declined 0.5 percentage points to 6.7%, while the four-week moving average was unchanged at 7%.The survey's measure for current financial conditions over the last year eased 0.8 points to 52.6, while future financial conditions for the next 12 months rose 4.4 points to 76.4.Short-term economic confidence for the next 12 months was up 3.2 points to 54.1, and medium-term economic confidence for the next five years gained 2.3 points to 76.7.The survey's "time to buy a major household item" subindex increased 1.6 points in the week to 62.7.Most subindices improved last week, which may have been driven by news of the US-Iran ceasefire, the report said.However, on a four-week moving average basis, inflation expectations remain at their highest since this subindex series began in 2010, the bank added.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Information Technology Stocks Gain, Energy Declines

Information technology stocks were advancing over 4% to lead gainers in midday trading Tuesday, as markets remained hopeful for an eventual peace agreement between the US and Iran even as a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz took effect.WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) and Xero (ASX:XRO), the two biggest stocks in the sector based on market capitalization, rose past 6% and over 5%, respectively.On the flip side, energy stocks were declining less than 1% as oil prices again tracked below $100 per barrel.Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR) bucked the trend and was advancing more than 16% after Euroz Hartleys said in a Monday note that the company is a key pick to tap the potential of the Taroom Trough, an emerging onshore oil and gas basin in Queensland that is gaining mainstream attention.

Australia's Consumer Sentiment Slides in April on Rising Fuel Costs, Rate Hike Pressure: Westpac-MI

Australia's consumer confidence tumbled in April, as rising fuel prices and interest rates added to cost-of-living pressures and weighed heavily on economic sentiment, according to a survey by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute published Tuesday.The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply around 13% to 80.1 in April from 91.6 in March.Australian consumers are facing renewed cost-of-living pressures from rising fuel prices and a 25-basis-point rate hike, driving sentiment to near historical lows and signaling prolonged weakness similar to the 2022 to 2024 inflation period, said Matthew Hassan, head of Australian macro-forecasting at Westpac.All components of the index fell sharply in April, with the biggest declines in "current conditions," especially "family finances vs a year ago," which dropped nearly 17% to 66.8 on higher fuel costs.Average pump prices reached AU$2.40 per liter in the first week of April, rising AU$0.37 from March, marking the largest increase in the survey's history despite a temporary fuel excise tax cut that lowered prices by AU$0.12 per liter.Consumers' outlook for the economy and their finances has deteriorated sharply, with both sub-indices falling as they anticipate continued economic strain, higher fuel prices due to the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and little near-term improvement.Consumers expect higher interest rates and mortgage costs over the next year amid persistent inflation and potential further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hikes, weakening buyer sentiment, as the "time to buy a major item" index fell 15% to 83.3 due to cost-of-living pressures.Consumers' medium-term economic expectations remain relatively resilient, with the "economy, next 5 years" sub-index down 5.1% to 91.4, suggesting expectations that current challenges are temporary.Consumers are growing more pessimistic about the labor market, with unemployment expectations rising 9.7% to 147.8 in April, with job loss concerns increasing most notably in energy and interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction and hospitality.Homebuyer sentiment rose modestly in April, led by gains in the mortgage belt, but it remains well below its long-term average, while price expectations fell sharply but remain relatively optimistic.The RBA is expected to tighten policy again in May as persistent inflation and energy-driven price pressures outweigh weakening demand and falling real incomes.

Brent Crude Oil Expected to Reach $88 Per Barrel by End of 2026, ANZ Research Says

Brent crude oil is expected to stay above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and reach $88-per-barrel by the end of the year, as tight balances alone are sufficient to sustain the price of Brent near or above recent threshold levels, ANZ Research said in a Tuesday report.The longer the conflict in the Middle East drags on, the more persistent these price dynamics are likely to be, ANZ said.The conflict resulted in large‑scale, realized supply curtailments across core Persian Gulf oil producers. Relative to the analysts' January baseline, 9.5 million barrels per day of crude supply have been effectively removed from the market. This turned a modest expected surplus at the start of the year into a deep deficit.The oil supply recovery is likely to be slow, incomplete and uneven, leaving the market structurally tighter and more volatile through mid‑2026, ANZ said.An estimated 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of oil supply is at risk of being permanently or semi‑permanently lost due to issues such as reservoir damage, aging fields, deferred maintenance, and ongoing sanctions or financing restrictions, according to the report.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Rise on Renewed US-Iran Talks Optimism; Qantas Airways Raises Fiscal 2026 Fuel Cost Forecast

Australian shares are poised to rise on Tuesday after oil markets were shaken by escalating Middle East tensions, as the US moves to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.US President Donald Trump said Iran had reached out to restart negotiations after failed weekend talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, as investors weighed the risk of further disruption to global energy supplies.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, 1.2%, and 0.6%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, Australia's wages rose 0.8% in the March quarter while employment added about 23,000 jobs, pointing to a steady but gradually cooling labor market with wage growth stabilizing near a new baseline, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) said in a Monday report.In corporate news, Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) now expects fuel cost for the second half of fiscal 2026 to be AU$3.1 billion to AU$3.3 billion, as February jet refining margins peaked at about $120 per barrel.Westpac Banking (ASX:WBC, NZE:WBC) will boost credit provisions for customers in energy-intensive sectors due to the volatility and economic uncertainty created by the Middle East conflict.Australia's benchmark index fell 0.4% or 34.6 points to close at 8,926 on Monday.

Australian Wage Growth Steady at 3.1% as Labor Market Stays Resilient, CBA Says

Australia's wages rose 0.8% in the March quarter while employment added about 23,000 jobs, pointing to a steady but gradually cooling labor market with wage growth stabilizing near a new baseline, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) said in a Monday report.Wage growth has remained steady at 3.1% annually, with recent CBA Wage insights indicating that Australia's labor market is beginning to stabilize after an extended period of strong performance."The CBA Wage insights series continues to show wages growth is steady heading into a period of higher inflation and inflation expectations period due to the Middle East conflict," said Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at Commonwealth Bank.The labor market remains relatively tight with unemployment at 4.3%, while wages growth has stabilized around 3.1% per year, and there is currently no clear response to tightening conditions, though some easing is expected as economic growth slows in 2026, Allen added.Wage growth across Australia remains uneven by region, with Western Australia leading at 3.9% year-on-year in March, while Victoria and Tasmania lag behind amid a softening trend, and other states and territories recording moderate, steady growth.The bank stated that its internal data does not indicate a clear shift in trends for wages or employment, pointing to a broadly stable outlook despite elevated external risks and inflation expectations.