S&P/ASX 200

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Fall Amid Oil Surge, Fed Policy Uncertainty; Champion Iron Swings to Fiscal Q1 Loss, Revenue Down

Australian shares are poised to fall on Thursday as a surge in oil prices fuels inflation concerns and heightens worries over Middle East supply disruptions.Investors are also weighing uncertainty around US monetary policy after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged while signaling further tightening could be considered if inflation remains persistent.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%, 1.7%, and 2.2%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, Australia's building approvals and international trade price indexes data are due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Champion Iron (ASX:CIA) reported Thursday fiscal first quarter loss of CA$0.07 per share on revenue of CA$356.9 million, compared with profit of of CA$0.05 on revenue of CA$390 million a year earlier.Domino's Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP) reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 underlying profit after tax guidance of AU$118 million to AU$122 million despite expecting a statutory loss after booking around AU$300 million in mostly non-cash balance sheet write-downs.Australia's benchmark index rose 1%, or 90.8 points, to close at 9,038.60 on Wednesday.

Australian Shares Advance; Rio Tinto Group Posts Higher H1 Underlying Earnings, Revenue

Australian shares advanced further on Wednesday, as investors reacted to softer-than-expected June quarter inflation data, cutting expectations of a rate hike.The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.01%, or 90.80 points, to close at 9,038.60, setting a new 100-day high.Brent crude oil futures rose to trade around $86 per barrel after the US military said Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles, which had been intercepted.Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% and the S&P 500 inched up 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.On the domestic front, Australia's consumer price index rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June from a 4% increase in the year to May. Trimmed mean annual inflation was 3.6% in the 12 months to June, unchanged from the 12 months to May.In company news, Rio Tinto Group (ASX:RIO) reported Wednesday that its underlying earnings per basic share in the first half rose to $4.214, from $2.96 a year earlier. Consolidated sales revenue for the six months ended June 30 was $31.03 billion, up from $26.87 billion in the same period last year.Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) reported second-quarter operating revenue of $4.19 billion, up 28% from $3.28 billion a year earlier. The company's quarterly production volume hit 41.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), down 18% from 50.1 MMboe in the year-ago period.Lastly, CSL (ASX:CSL) is set to conduct clinical trial work to confirm the efficacy and safety of immunoglobulin manufactured using its Horizon 2 process. It expects clinical activities to start in mid-2027.

Australia's Downside Inflation Surprise Removes Case for Rate Hike in August, Westpac Says

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver a hawkish interest rate hold at its August monetary policy meeting as inflation has been more benign than the central bank's forecast, Westpac said in a Wednesday report.Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June, moderating from a 4% increase in the previous month, with market services inflation and the all-important housing-related components both coming in below expectations."We no longer expect rate hikes by the RBA this year," Westpac said. "The substantial pass-through of higher energy costs seen in the early phase of the Middle East conflict has not been followed up in recent months."Westpac still expects the RBA to debate the case for a rate increase in August, noting that a risk of a hike in November still exists if inflation accelerates again in the third quarter, although this is not part of the bank's base case scenario.Additionally, the latest inflation print does not alter Westpac's forecast August 2027 timing for the central bank to start unwinding rate hikes implemented earlier this year, it said.

RBA Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged in August After Softer-than-Expected June Quarter Trimmed Mean Inflation Data, ANZ Says

The softer-than-expected June quarter trimmed mean inflation print of 0.8% should see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keep rates on hold at 4.35% at its August meeting, ANZ Research said in a note on Wednesday.Trimmed mean inflation was lower than expected at 3.6% on an annual basis, compared with the RBA's forecast of 3.8%. The central bank governor acknowledged the softening in economic activity in a speech on Tuesday.Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June from a 4% increase in the year to May. The largest contributor to annual inflation was housing, which rose 6.8%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture, both up 3.3%.The RBA is forecast to ease rates by 50 basis points in the second half of 2027, ANZ said, adding that the risk of a rate hike in November remains.The monthly CPI showed signs that second-round passthrough is limited so far, with new dwelling costs increasing just 0.4% on a monthly basis in June after lifting 0.9% in May and 0.7% in April. The food group also recorded softer monthly growth in June at 0.4%.The lender concluded that there are signs that the demand environment is making it challenging for businesses to pass on higher costs to households.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Healthcare Stocks Lead Broad-Based Rally

Healthcare stocks jumped nearly 4%, leading a broad-based rally at midday Wednesday.CSL (ASX:CSL) gained almost 7% in recent trade following news that it will conduct clinical trial work to confirm the efficacy and safety of immunoglobulin manufactured using its Horizon 2 process.Meanwhile, the financial sector edged up nearly 1%.Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) shares inched up in recent trade.

Australia's Inflation Increases 3.8% in Year to June

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June from a 4% increase in the year to May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Wednesday.The largest contributor to annual inflation was housing, which rose 6.8%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture, both up 3.3%.Annual housing inflation was primarily driven by rising costs for electricity and new dwellings.Electricity remains a major driver of annual inflation, with prices over 22% higher than a year ago, largely due to the end of government rebates that had previously lowered household electricity bills, said Rachael McCririck, the bureau's head of prices statistics.Trimmed mean annual inflation was 3.6% in the 12 months to June, unchanged from the 12 months to May.Transport inflation eased notably, with the annual rate slowing to a 0.1% increase, compared with a 3.3% rise in May."Lower world oil prices as a result of some stabilization in the Middle East in June contributed to fuel prices falling 10.9% in the month," McCririck added.The CPI declined by 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms during the month of June.

Australia's CPI Up 3.8% in Year to June, Trimmed Mean Inflation at 3.6%

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Rise as Oil Slides on US-Iran Ceasefire Hopes; Rio Tinto Group Posts Higher H1 Underlying Earnings, Revenue

Australian shares are poised to rise on Wednesday, tracking a sharp drop in oil prices as hopes for a sustained pause in US-Iran hostilities eased concerns over global crude supply disruptions despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.In the macroeconomy, Australia's consumer price index report is due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Rio Tinto Group (ASX:RIO) reported Wednesday first-half underlying earnings of $4.214 per basic share on revenue of $31.03 billion, compared with underlying earnings of $2.96 on revenue of $26.87 billion a year earlier.Woodside Energy Group's (ASX:WDS) operating revenue rose to $4.19 billion in the second quarter ended June 30 from $3.28 billion a year earlier.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.6%, or 53.8 points, to close at 8,947.80 on Tuesday.

Australian Shares Rise; Viva Energy Group's H1 Sales Volume Rises, EBITDA Expected to More Than Double

Australian shares rose further on Tuesday, as oil prices fell further after the US and Iran engaged in diplomacy in order to end the conflict in the Middle East.The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.6%, or 53.80 points, to close at 8,947.80.Brent crude oil futures fell a further 1% to trade around $87 per barrel. US President Donald Trump said the US and Iran were engaged in talks to end the ongoing conflict.On the domestic front, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence fell 4.4 points to 71.2 in the week of July 20 to July 26. The four-week moving average fell 1.2 points to 74.2.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said the monetary policy board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed as it assesses how higher input costs and geopolitical tensions will affect inflation.In company news, Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) reported a first-half sales volume of 8.49 billion liters, up 1.5% from about 8.37 billion liters in the year-ago period. It expects first-half earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization on a replacement cost basis of AU$770 million to AU$780 million, up from AU$305 million a year earlier.DroneShield (ASX:DRO) secured two contracts totaling AU$23.2 million from a reseller for the supply of vehicle-mountable counter-drone products. It expects first-half revenue of AU$125.8 million, an increase of 74% from the prior corresponding period. The company's first-half gross margin is estimated at 60%, down from 65% a year earlier.Lastly, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) Chief Executive Frank Calabria said the firm had completed the initial phase of its ongoing review into a recent customer data security incident, which indicated that the information of around 900,000 current and former customers was accessed.

RBA Governor Bullock Says Board Prepared to Raise Cash Rate Further if Needed

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said the monetary policy board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed as it assesses how higher input costs and geopolitical tensions will affect inflation.In her speech at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch on Tuesday, Bullock said domestic demand has eased broadly as expected. In addition, labor market conditions have softened somewhat, but continued weak productivity growth means the economy cannot grow strongly without putting pressure on inflation, describing this as a fundamental challenge for the Australian economy over the next few years.The governor said monetary policy cannot address the economy's slow productivity growth. Meaning that while it persists, the ability of the economy to grow without generating inflation is constrained, and Australians will continue to experience limited real wage growth.Bullock said the full effects of earlier cash rate increases will take time to materialize, and that even if the renewed disruption to oil supply abates quickly, underlying inflation is still expected to be higher as fuel price rises flow through to other prices.

Australian, Western Australian Governments Launch AU$4 Million Pre-feasibility Study for Building New Oil Refinery

The governments of Australia and Western Australia will conduct a jointly funded AU$4 million pre-feasibility study for a new large-scale oil refinery in the state, to be built by Perdaman, according to a Tuesday statement.The proposed refinery is expected to create thousands of jobs, boost the local economy, and help secure diesel for regional communities in Western Australia.This is the first agreement to be signed as part of the Australian government's AU$10 million support for feasibility studies into furthering fuel refining capabilities, as it seeks to retain current refining capability in the decade beyond 2030, per the statement.Australia currently has two oil refineries: in Brisbane, Queensland and in Geelong, Victoria.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Consumer Discretionary Stocks Advance, Materials Sector Struggles

Consumer discretionary stocks advanced more than 1% at midday Tuesday.Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) gained 1% in recent trade.On the flip side, the materials sector struggled, shedding more than 2%.BHP Group (ASX:BHP) shares fell past 2% in recent trade.

Australian Consumer Confidence Falls on Inflation, Middle East Concerns

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence fell 4.4 points to 71.2 in the week of July 20 to July 26, ANZ reported Tuesday.The four-week moving average fell 1.2 points to 74.2, per the report.Australian consumer confidence fell to a six-week low last week, weighed down by rising concerns over Middle East tensions, renewed inflation pressures and signs of a cooling labor market, according to ANZ economist Sophia Angala.Weekly inflation expectations have edged higher ahead of Wednesday's second quarter consumer price index release, with markets watching whether underlying price pressures ease enough to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia on hold in August, Angala added.Weekly inflation expectations inched up to 5.9% from 5.8%, while the current financial condition indicator for 12 months decreased 2.2 points to 63.9. The future financial conditions for the next 12 months fell to 77 points from 82.5.Short-term economic confidence for the next year fell 2.8 points to 64.9, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years decreased to 77.3 points from 81.4.The "time to buy a major household item" subcategory fell 7.6 points to 72.7.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Fall as Oil Slumps on Iran Ceasefire Hopes; Bellevue Gold Reports Higher Gold Production, Sales in June Quarter

Australian shares are poised to fall on Tuesday after oil prices slumped to their lowest levels in more than a week, as the US paused air strikes against Iran, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions and raising hopes for a diplomatic deal.Gold edged higher as investors weighed softer inflation risks ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.In the macroeconomy, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence fell 4.4 points to 71.2 in the week of July 20 to July 26, ANZ reported Tuesday.In corporate news, Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) produced 41,643 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of AU$2,604 per ounce and sold 40,671 ounces of gold at an average realized price of AU$4,180 per ounce during the June quarter.Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) produced 70,766 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of AU$2,797 per ounce and sold 77,797 ounces of gold at an average realized price of AU$6,175 per ounce during the June quarter.Australia's benchmark index rose 1.4% or 121.7 points to close at 8,894 on Monday.

Asia Week Ahead: U.S. Interest Rate Decision, Japan's Data Deluge, Industrial Output

Several key data releases are scheduled this week, with a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday regarding interest rates taking center stage.The economic release calendar will gain momentum as the week progresses.Following business and consumer confidence survey reports, industrial and production data, and import and export prices, the bulk of economic disclosures will be released Friday.Japan is set to announce an interest rate decision at the end of the week. The week ahead also features the usual end-of-month data deluge from Japan that could provide insights into its economic health and potential monetary policy direction.MONDAY, July 27The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy for a second straight review, slightly raising the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band.Meanwhile, the city-state's manufacturing output rose 7.2% year over year in June, slowing from a revised 17.8% increase in May and missing the 9% forecast of Trading Economics.Elsewhere, profits of China's major industrial firms grew 15.1% year over year in June, softer than the 21.1% gain in May.TUESDAY, July 28India is expected to see a year-over-year rise of 5.3% in industrial production in June, according to economists at ING. Manufacturing production is projected to increase 5%, based on a Trading Economics forecast.South Korea will release consumer confidence data.WEDNESDAY, JULY 29Markets will be on the lookout for the U.S. Fed's interest rate decision, with Investing.com and Westpac expecting the regulator to keep the policy unchanged for the fifth straight meeting.Elsewhere, Singapore is set to release domestic supply and manufactured products price index data, as well as export and import price figures.THURSDAY, July 30South Korea will release its business confidence report, while Japan publishes its consumer confidence data.Singapore will report its unemployment statistics for June, with Investing.com projecting a 2.1% rise.FRIDAY, JULY 31Japan is expected to keep its interest rate steady at 1%, according to predictions by ING and Investing.com.Japan's Usual End-of-Month Data DelugeInflation: Tokyo inflation figures will give further insights into Japan's inflation outlook. Tokyo's annual inflation rate is estimated to rise slightly to 1.8% in July, according to market consensus forecast data quoted by ING and Westpac Economics.Retail Performance: June retail sales are expected to increase 2.8% year over year, according to a Trading economics consensus.Activity: Industrial production is estimated to increase 1.8% compared with a 2.1% decline a year prior.Unemployment: Japan's unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged in the month at 2.5%, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Elsewhere, experts at ING forecast a slowdown of China's manufacturing PMI to 50.1 in July from 50.3 the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to decelerate to 50 from 50.2 in the previous month.ANZ Research, however, projects manufacturing PMI to fall to 49.9 amid a correction in commodity prices, which dampened business sentiment and corporate profit outlook, the Wall Street Journal reported citing Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma.Westpac Economics sees manufacturing activity as broadly stable, alongside a focus on domestic demand for services.Other key indicators due Friday are South Korea's industrial output and retail sales data for June, as well as Singapore's business confidence report for the second quarter.

Australian Shares Jump; Evolution Mining to Acquire Carnaby Resources in AU$213 Million Deal

Australian shares closed higher on Monday, as a fall in oil prices provided relief over inflation concerns.The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.39%, or 121.70 points, to close at 8,894.Brent crude oil futures were trading over $92 per barrel, falling over 4%. Iran said it would stop its attacks if the US did the same. Gold rose to trade around $4,090 per ounce.Investors are also eyeing the results of the US Federal Reserve's July meeting on Wednesday.On the domestic front, Australia's headline inflation is expected to average 4% in the second quarter, below the Reserve Bank of Australia's 4.8% forecast, which should prompt the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting, BofA Securities said.In company news, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources (ASX:CNB) via a scheme of arrangement under which Carnaby shareholders will receive 0.0682 new Evolution shares for each Carnaby share held, valuing Carnaby at around AU$213 million.Santos (ASX:STO) and PRISM Energy International Australia jointly marketed and loaded the first condensate cargo from the Barossa gas project. The shipment of around 300,000 barrels of condensate was loaded from the BW Opal floating production, storage and offloading vessel for delivery to SK Incheon Petrochem's refinery in South Korea.Lastly, Myer Holdings (ASX:MYR) reported total sales for fiscal year 2026 of AU$4.1 billion and operating gross profit between AU$1.6 billion and AU$1.61 billion. The company reported total sales of AU$3.67 billion and operating gross profit of AU$1.41 billion for fiscal year 2025.

Australia's Q2 Inflation Reading Expected to Undershoot Central Bank's Forecast, BofA Securities Says

Australia's headline inflation is expected to average 4% in the second quarter, below the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 4.8% forecast, which should prompt the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting, BofA Securities said in a July 24 note.The RBA's preferred trimmed mean consumer price index (CPI) reading is expected to rise by 3.7% year over year in the second quarter, slightly below the central bank's 3.8% forecast, BofA Securities said.The brokerage firm forecasts the headline CPI to ease to 3.9% year over year in June, and expects the third consecutive monthly easing to mainly be driven by a 7.7% fall in auto fuel."While inflation remains too high, downside surprises should support the case for the RBA to remain on hold in August, especially as the impact of 75 basis points of hikes will only become evident from the [third quarter] CPI onwards," BofA said.It added, however, that an upside inflation surprise could push the central bank to hike borrowing costs again, especially if oil prices remain above $90 per barrel.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Information Technology Stocks Jump, Energy Sector Struggles

Information technology stocks jumped nearly 4% at midday Monday.Xero (ASX:XRO) gained 5% in recent trade.On the flip side, the energy sector struggled, shedding about 4%.Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) shares were down almost 4% in recent trade even after the Western Australian government decision to grant "state significant project" status to the proposed Browse to North West Shelf gas project.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares to Rise as Oil Prices Fall on Trump's Iran Strike Pause; Evolution Mining to Acquire Carnaby Resources

Australian shares are poised to rise on Monday, tracking a decline in oil prices after US President Donald Trump paused strikes on Iran, boosting hopes for a diplomatic resolution that could ease Middle East tensions and reduce concerns over energy supply disruptions.On July 24, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6%.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing Australia's consumer price index report on Wednesday.In corporate news, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources (ASX:CNB) via a scheme of arrangement under which Carnaby shareholders will receive 0.0682 new Evolution shares for each Carnaby share held, valuing Carnaby at around AU$213 million.Myer Holdings (ASX:MYR) reported total sales for fiscal year 2026 of AU$4.1 billion and operating gross profit between AU$1.6 billion and AU$1.61 billion.Australia's benchmark index fell 0.8% or 66.7 points to close at 8,772.30 on July 24.