FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Australia Walks Economic Tightrope as Rates, Inflation, Property Concerns Cloud 2026 Outlook, Says Bendigo Bank

By

Australia's economy faces mounting pressure from a softening labor market, stubborn inflation, and global energy uncertainty, weighing on growth and reshaping the property outlook, according to Bendigo Bank's Chief Economist, David Robertson, in a Thursday statement.

Robertson said the recent award wage increase, combined with Australia's weak productivity growth, might keep pressure on the Reserve Bank to hold rates at restrictive levels.

"Looking ahead, economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.5%, dependent on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the resilience of household spending and labour markets," Robertson said.

On housing, Robertson said auction clearance rates were already easing before the budget and are expected to fall further, pointing to a levelling off in capital city prices.

After average gains of 9% last year, prices across much of the country could be broadly flat for the rest of the year, Robertson said, adding that Australia needs more work on supply and the bigger economic concern of productivity.

Robertson believes that bold structural and tax reforms are needed to lift productivity and allow wages to rise without stoking inflation, but said it remains unclear whether that could be achieved without changes to the goods and services tax to reduce reliance on personal income tax.

Related Articles

International

New Zealand Property Values Flat in May, Cotality Says

The national median home value in New Zealand held steady in May at NZ$808,187, unchanged from April but down 0.1% over the past three months, according to Cotality's Home Value Index released Thursday.Values were 0.6% lower than a year earlier and remain 17% below the early 2022 peak of NZ$974,002.Among the main centers, Christchurch led monthly gains with a 0.4% rise, while Dunedin and Tauranga each edged up 0.2%, and Hamilton added 0.1%. Auckland and Wellington continued to slide, falling 0.2% and 0.3% respectively."There are differing patterns beneath the surface. Key areas, including Auckland and Wellington, are still subdued, while even 'strong' markets such as Christchurch or Invercargill aren't racing away," saidCotality NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson.Auckland's modest overall decline in May was broad-based, with nearly all sub-markets slipping 0.2% or 0.3%. The exceptions were Rodney, which gained 0.2%, and Franklin, which was unchanged."The longer the OCR stays on hold, the greater the chances inflation is harder to rein back in again, which will tend to put more upwards pressure on mortgage rates," Davidson added.Davidson warned that upward pressure on mortgage rates raises the risk of a more pronounced economic slowdown, which could weigh on household confidence, the labor market, and both property sales and prices."All in all, housing market conditions remain challenging. Having previously anticipated sales volumes rising from around 90,000 in 2025 to 100,000 this year, the market may actually do well to hold at similar levels to last year. This points to a sluggish outlook for values too," Davidson said.

$^NZ50
International

Market Chatter: India's Bank Lending Hits Two-Year High as Firms Choose Loans Over Bonds as Financing Sources

Bank lending in India grew 16.2% year-on-year through May 15, marking the fastest pace of growth since June 2024 as companies chose bank loans over bonds, owing to their lower borrowing costs, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.Local bond sales over the same period declined 11% to 10.9 trillion rupees. This could be a result of higher sovereign bond yields because of the U.S.-Iran war, which led the yields to rise 38 basis points to 7.04% since the conflict began, the report said.The higher benchmark bond yields have raised corporate borrowing costs, lowering firms' demand for bonds, despite speculations that the Reserve Bank of India will keep its interest rates steady on Friday, it said.Muthoot Microfin (BOM:544055, NSE:MUTHOOTMF) has moved nearly 50% of its funding to bank loans, lowering borrowing costs by roughly 75 basis points, the company's Chief Executive Officer Sadaf Sayeed said in an interview.State-run power transmission firm Power Grid Corporation of India (BOM:532898, NSE:POWERGRID) also secured a credit facility of up to 40 billion rupees from State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN, BOM:500112), the report said.Shares of Power Grid Corporation of India rose nearly 1% in recent trade, while those of State Bank of India added about 2%.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$BOM:500112$BOM:532898$BOM:544055$NSE:MUTHOOTMF$NSE:POWERGRID$NSE:SBIN
International

ANZ Commodity Price Index Rises in May

The ANZ World Commodity Price Index climbed 0.7% month over month in May, with all commodity groups in the index seeing incremental gains, according to a Thursday report from ANZ Research.Over the past year, the index rose 1.3%, with wool jumping more than 75%, aluminum rising over 49%, and beef up more than 25%.Dairy prices slipped 0.1% sequentially during the month and were down over 11% annually, with higher milk powder prices offsetting lower butter prices, per the report. Over the past year, skim milk powder prices were up nearly 26%, while butter prices were down more than 29%.Meanwhile, the meat and fiber index edged 0.4% higher from April. Beef and lamb prices were stabilizing near record-high levels, and wool prices increased 14% month over month. Wool is benefiting from strong demand and low supply, tilting the balance toward higher prices, ANZ said.The horticulture index jumped 3.4% in May, as New Zealand's main produce hit supermarket shelves overseas and early price indications were encouraging.The forestry index was up just 0.6% in the month. In-market log prices jumped roughly 12% since the Middle East conflict started, but these higher prices are going toward higher shipping costs, according to the report.Aluminum prices jumped 1.8% month over month and continued to strengthen due to damaged production facilities in the Persian Gulf, ANZ said. The Middle East accounts for around 8% to 9% of global production, and production out of this region was down 35% from pre-conflict levels.

$^NZ50