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Venture Global Raises 2026 Profit Outlook on Strong LNG Demand, RBC Says

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Venture Global's (VG) outlook has strengthened after the energy firm raised its 2026 earnings guidance, as ongoing disruptions to Middle East energy supplies are expected to create additional demand for US LNG, RBC Capital Markets strategists said on Tuesday.

RBC analysts said that the US liquefied natural gas producer now expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion.

The new midpoint of $8.9 billion represents a 6.5% increase over its previous outlook and exceeds the $8.5 billion forecast previously held by analysts.

The upward revision comes despite a slight miss in Q2 results, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.49 billion falling about 1% short of FactSet consensus expectations.

Venture Global's shares remain rated "Outperform" with a $16 price target, according to RBC.

"We still believe Venture Global can capture incremental demand for LNG from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and impact on supply," RBC analysts said in a note.

Global appetite for LNG has remained resilient despite higher price tags, said RBC. The latest data shows that Asian importers, led by China, Japan, and India, have sustained purchasing levels even as prices jumped 56% year-over-year in Q2.

Meanwhile, low natural gas inventories in Europe suggest the potential for further spikes in demand for US exports ahead of the winter season.

Operationally, the company exported 127 cargoes in Q2, buoyed by increased production at its Plaquemines facility during commissioning.

Despite undergoing major maintenance at its Calcasieu Pass site, Venture Global used its modular design to maintain output of 37 cargoes, avoiding the broader curtailments typically seen at larger, traditional facilities.

Venture Global is pressing ahead with its capital expenditure program. RBC analysts expect the first phase of Plaquemines to enter commercial operation by Q4, with the second phase slated for mid-2027, and the first LNG from its CP2 project expected in H1 2027.

Going forward, RBC said that Venture Global is positioning itself for a total run-rate capacity of approximately 85 million tonnes per annum by 2029.

Price: $13.82, Change: $-0.38, Percent Change: -2.68%

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