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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Prices Jump on Hotter Weather Forecasts, Strong Demand

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US natural gas prices rose in after-hours trade on Tuesday as forecasts for above-average temperatures across the US South boosted expectations for gas-fired power demand to meet increased air-conditioning use.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 3.83% to $2.793 per million British thermal units.

The Commodity Weather Group said on Tuesday that forecasts had shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across the western and southern US through Sept. 1.

The Energy Buyers' Guide noted that the Winter 2026-27 strip also rebounded, but despite today's move, winter pricing remains weaker over the past week and month. Further out, the curve was comparatively steady, with Calendar 2027 edging higher but still below last week's levels.

Gelber said the latest weather forecast added another 6.7 billion cubic feet to projected demand over the next two weeks, building on Monday's upward revision as the Midwest and South Central regions shifted warmer. However, it said the warmer outlook should keep cooling demand elevated through the coming week, but temperatures and cooling degree days are still expected to ease toward seasonal levels later in the month, Gelber said.

Liquefied natural gas demand could also strengthen as Freeport LNG recovers and Golden Pass commissioning volumes continue to rise, providing another source of support into the shoulder season, Gelber said.

But strong production kept a lid on price rises, as it remains historically strong and projected inventory declines are still above 4.0 trillion cubic feet, which should limit the market's ability to extend the rally much beyond the upper end of its recent range, the firm said.

Barchart, citing BNEF data, said US Lower-48 dry gas production on Tuesday was 112.4 Bcf/d, up 2.5% from a year earlier. Lower-48 state gas demand was 83.6 Bcf/d, up 3.2% year over year.

Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals were 17.8 Bcf/d on Tuesday, up 2.7% from the previous week.

The market is keeping an eye on progress on the Hugh Brinson pipeline, which is expected to reach its full transportation capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d by Sept. 1, allowing more gas to flow from the Permian Basin.

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