Permian gas infrastructure could support production growth of about 70% as new pipelines ease capacity constraints through 2031, TPH Energy Research said in a Tuesday note.
WhiteWater's Solitude Pipeline announcement aligns with TPH's updated outlook, with the system expected to ease an emerging Permian gas bottleneck heading into 2031.
Higher drilling and earlier start-ups for Hugh Brinson and Blackcomb could lift Permian gas growth by about 2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, with similar gains expected in 2027.
Compression limits at Hugh Brinson could keep Waha prices relatively close to Katy through late 2027 before the spread temporarily widens during the first half of 2028.
Eiger's planned start-up in Q3 2028, with about 3.7 Bcf/d of capacity, should further improve Permian gas takeaway as new infrastructure comes online.
By year-end 2029, Desert Southwest and Solitude Phase I could add about 4.55 Bcf/d of gas takeaway capacity. Solitude Phase II could add another 2.25 Bcf/d in 2030.
TPH believes the 48-inch pipelines could support over 10 Bcf/d of total takeaway capacity with modest additional investment, up from the nominal 6.8 Bcf/d.
Planned projects through 2031 could add more than 17 Bcf/d of gas takeaway capacity, versus about 10.5 Bcf/d of expected production growth, with Kinder Morgan's (KMI) Permian Link potentially adding another 2.6 Bcf/d.
Permian gas output would need to rise by about 70% to fully utilize the planned capacity, while the basin's oil mix could fall by about 7.5% between 2025 and 2030.
The industry may be expanding infrastructure ahead of actual production needs after earlier takeaway constraints, TPH said. That could support Waha gas pricing and increase the value of gassier acreage from 2030, while challenging data centers that expect consistently cheap Permian gas.