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US Crude Stocks Seen Rising as Record Refinery Runs Offset SPR Draws, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 900,000-barrel build for the week ending July 10, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Tuesday, following a 1.7 million-barrel draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to rise by about 200,000 barrels per day during the week to about 17.3 million b/d, the highest level in several years. Crude exports are projected to rise by 100,000 b/d, while imports are projected to increase by 400,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, dropped by 100,000 b/d for the week ended July 10, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 5.1 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to drop by 1.7 million bbls, while distillate stocks and jet fuel inventories rose by 2.6 million bbls and 2.1 million bbls.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.4 mmb/d.

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