FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Natural Gas Update: US Gas Prices Slide on Supply, Weather Pressures

By

US natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trading Monday as the market continued to focus on ample supply, cooler weather forecasts and lingering LNG maintenance, outweighing expectations for stronger demand later in July.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both fell by 2.54% to $2.837 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas prices retreated Monday and remained just above last Thursday's two-month low, Barchart said. The Energy Buyers' Guide noted the front of the curve continues to trade near the bottom of its recent range and is now down more than 40 cents over the past month, mainly due to a lack of expected cooling demand.

The Commodity Weather Group said forecasts shifted cooler, with below-average temperatures expected in the Northeast through July 24.

Weather concerns intensified as traders monitored a tropical depression expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha, raising fears of disruptions to LNG export facilities along the US Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center said the system could bring tropical storm conditions from the Florida Panhandle westward to southern Louisiana on Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially reducing LNG exports and increasing domestic gas supplies.

Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 18.0 Bcf/d on Monday, down 0.1 Bcf/d from Friday but up 0.5% from a week earlier, according to BNEF data cited by Barchart.

Gelber & Associates said LNG feedgas held at 17.8 Bcf/d following Freeport LNG's partial recovery, with flows expected to approach 20 Bcf/d next week as maintenance concludes. While that should tighten market balances later this month, the firm said traders appear reluctant to price in stronger demand before higher consumption and export nominations are reflected in physical market data.

Total lower-48 gas demand was 78.4 Bcf/d on Monday after exceeding 80 Bcf/d for most of last week. Celsius Energy said Sunday's power burn totaled 43.8 Bcf/d, down 2.4 Bcf/d from Saturday but 1.4 Bcf/d above year-ago levels. Gelber & Associates estimated power burn at 47.5 Bcf/d and said updated modeling added 17.5 Bcf to cumulative demand over the next two weeks as heat becomes more concentrated across the southern US.

Lower-48 dry gas production was 113.0 Bcf/d on Monday, down 2.1 Bcf/d from Friday but up 3.9% year over year.

Related Articles

Commodities

Ukraine Reports Strike on Yanos Refinery, Russian Tankers, Oil Depot

Ukraine struck the Yanos refinery and several Russian military-linked fuel and naval assets during operations on July 16-17, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Friday.The strikes damaged the Yanos refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl region. The attack ignited a fire at the site, while officials continued to assess the extent of the damage, the General Staff said.The plant processes about 15 million metric tons of crude annually and produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants and bitumen, the General Staff said.Ukraine also struck two tankers, including one gas carrier, and one tugboat in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, the General Staff said.The military said Russia uses the vessels to transport oil, petroleum products and liquefied gas while bypassing international sanctions and to deliver fuel for military operations.Ukrainian forces additionally struck the Shakhtarsk oil depot in Donetsk region as part of efforts to reduce Russia's military and economic capabilities, the General Staff said.Gazprom and Rosneft did not immediately reply to' request for comment.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rebound as Traders Weigh Global Supply Risks Against Cooler Weather

US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trade on Friday, recovering the previous session's losses as traders balanced concerns over global supply disruptions against expectations for weaker near-term cooling demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 2.03% to $2.916 per million British thermal units.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, August 2026 natural gas futures gained 5 cents to settle at $2.91/MMBtu, while the Summer 2026 strip also rose 5 cents to $2.90/MMBtu. Further along the curve, the Winter 2026-27 contract added 2 cents, finishing at $3.55/MMBtu.Despite Friday's recovery, most contracts remained lower on both a weekly and monthly basis after the market recently moved into a lower trading range, according to the note.Analysts at Barchart said Friday's advance was supported by a sharp rally in European natural gas prices, which climbed to a 3.75-month high amid concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran could disrupt energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.Such disruptions could reduce LNG supplies to Europe and prompt European buyers to increase purchases of US LNG, providing additional support for US natural gas prices.However, gains were capped by forecasts for cooler US weather, which could reduce demand for natural gas-fired electricity generation for air conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said updated forecasts called for below-average temperatures across the Southwest and Mid-Atlantic through July 26.The rebound followed Thursday's decline, when natural gas futures fell to a two-month low after US government data showed an increase larger than what most analysts expected in weekly natural gas storage inventories, reinforcing concerns about ample domestic supply.Meanwhile, Barchart, citing BNEF data, put US gas production at 112.6 billion cubic feet per day on Friday, up 0.6 Bcf from the day before and 3.6% more than a year ago.Total Lower-48 gas demand was estimated at 80.5 Bcf/d, down 2.3 Bcf on the day, but up 1.2% year over year. Celsius Energy said Powerburn for Thursday was 48.7 Bcf, down 0.7 Bcf on the day, but up 1 Bcf on the year.Net LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals were estimated at 18.1 Bcf/d, up 0.5% from the previous week.

Commodities

Irving Oil Schedules Fall Turnaround at Saint John Refinery

Irving Oil will conduct a fall turnaround at its Saint John refinery from Sept. 8 to Nov. 18, 2026, according to an update on the company's website on Friday.The stream-to-stream turnaround will run from Sept. 8 to Nov. 18, while the mechanical work is scheduled for Sept. 11 to Nov. 8. The maintenance could tighten gasoline and diesel supplies across the northeastern US.Located in New Brunswick, the Saint John refinery can process about 300,000 barrels of crude per day and supplies gasoline and diesel to Maine, Massachusetts and other northeastern US states, according to Bloomberg.Irving Oil has not identified the processing units scheduled for maintenance or disclosed any alternative supply arrangements for customers during the turnaround, according to the report.