FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

June Renewable Fuel Credit Generation Rises, but 2026 Gap Remains, TPH Says

By

An increase in US renewable fuel credit generation in June is unlikely to eliminate an expected supply shortfall in 2026, a dynamic that should continue to support renewable fuel producers and feedstock suppliers, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Monday note.

The outlook comes despite US renewable fuel credit generation rising in June as domestic production of renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel increased, according to US Environmental Protection Agency data released late last week.

Total gross RIN generation increased to the equivalent of 2.27 billion credits in June, up from 2.14 billion in May and 2.01 billion a year earlier. The gain was driven primarily by D4 biomass-based diesel RINs, which rose to 839 million from 736 million in May and 630 million a year earlier, marking the third-highest monthly D4 total on record.

D1 through D7 are classifications of RINs tied to different renewable fuels and compliance categories under the US Renewable Fuel Standard.

The increase reflected stronger domestic output, with US utilization rates for RD, BD and SAF production climbing to 86% in June from 76% in May. Imports of renewable diesel and biodiesel edged higher but remained modest at 19 million gallons, accounting for about 4% of D4 RIN generation.

While annualizing June's net RIN production would yield about 25.9 billion credits, exceeding the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation of 25.5 billion, Blair cautioned that June reflects seasonally strong D6 ethanol RIN generation. Using more typical D6 production levels produces an annualized total of roughly 25.1 billion RINs, below the federal mandate.

Assuming D4 and D3 cellulosic biofuel generation remains at June's pace through year-end would result in only about 24.3 billion RINs, also well below the 2026 requirement. Under that scenario, the US would need substantially higher imports of RD, BD and SAF than seen in June to meet the RVO, likely requiring higher D4 RIN prices to attract additional supply.

A tighter RIN market could continue to benefit renewable diesel producers and refiners with renewable fuel operations, while supporting demand for agricultural feedstocks used in renewable fuel production, Blair said.

Related Articles

Commodities

Ukraine Reports Strike on Yanos Refinery, Russian Tankers, Oil Depot

Ukraine struck the Yanos refinery and several Russian military-linked fuel and naval assets during operations on July 16-17, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Friday.The strikes damaged the Yanos refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl region. The attack ignited a fire at the site, while officials continued to assess the extent of the damage, the General Staff said.The plant processes about 15 million metric tons of crude annually and produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants and bitumen, the General Staff said.Ukraine also struck two tankers, including one gas carrier, and one tugboat in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, the General Staff said.The military said Russia uses the vessels to transport oil, petroleum products and liquefied gas while bypassing international sanctions and to deliver fuel for military operations.Ukrainian forces additionally struck the Shakhtarsk oil depot in Donetsk region as part of efforts to reduce Russia's military and economic capabilities, the General Staff said.Gazprom and Rosneft did not immediately reply to' request for comment.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rebound as Traders Weigh Global Supply Risks Against Cooler Weather

US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trade on Friday, recovering the previous session's losses as traders balanced concerns over global supply disruptions against expectations for weaker near-term cooling demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 2.03% to $2.916 per million British thermal units.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, August 2026 natural gas futures gained 5 cents to settle at $2.91/MMBtu, while the Summer 2026 strip also rose 5 cents to $2.90/MMBtu. Further along the curve, the Winter 2026-27 contract added 2 cents, finishing at $3.55/MMBtu.Despite Friday's recovery, most contracts remained lower on both a weekly and monthly basis after the market recently moved into a lower trading range, according to the note.Analysts at Barchart said Friday's advance was supported by a sharp rally in European natural gas prices, which climbed to a 3.75-month high amid concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran could disrupt energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.Such disruptions could reduce LNG supplies to Europe and prompt European buyers to increase purchases of US LNG, providing additional support for US natural gas prices.However, gains were capped by forecasts for cooler US weather, which could reduce demand for natural gas-fired electricity generation for air conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said updated forecasts called for below-average temperatures across the Southwest and Mid-Atlantic through July 26.The rebound followed Thursday's decline, when natural gas futures fell to a two-month low after US government data showed an increase larger than what most analysts expected in weekly natural gas storage inventories, reinforcing concerns about ample domestic supply.Meanwhile, Barchart, citing BNEF data, put US gas production at 112.6 billion cubic feet per day on Friday, up 0.6 Bcf from the day before and 3.6% more than a year ago.Total Lower-48 gas demand was estimated at 80.5 Bcf/d, down 2.3 Bcf on the day, but up 1.2% year over year. Celsius Energy said Powerburn for Thursday was 48.7 Bcf, down 0.7 Bcf on the day, but up 1 Bcf on the year.Net LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals were estimated at 18.1 Bcf/d, up 0.5% from the previous week.

Commodities

Irving Oil Schedules Fall Turnaround at Saint John Refinery

Irving Oil will conduct a fall turnaround at its Saint John refinery from Sept. 8 to Nov. 18, 2026, according to an update on the company's website on Friday.The stream-to-stream turnaround will run from Sept. 8 to Nov. 18, while the mechanical work is scheduled for Sept. 11 to Nov. 8. The maintenance could tighten gasoline and diesel supplies across the northeastern US.Located in New Brunswick, the Saint John refinery can process about 300,000 barrels of crude per day and supplies gasoline and diesel to Maine, Massachusetts and other northeastern US states, according to Bloomberg.Irving Oil has not identified the processing units scheduled for maintenance or disclosed any alternative supply arrangements for customers during the turnaround, according to the report.