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FINWIRES

US Crude Processing Hits 7-Year High, EIA Data Show

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US refiners raised crude processing to 17.4 million barrels per day in the week ended Aug. 14, the highest level since Sept. 6, 2019, when crude runs stood at 17.5 mmb/d, according to US Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday.

Jet-fuel output stayed above 2 mmb/d for the 18th straight week, while gasoline, residual fuel oil, propane and propylene production also increased, EIA data show.

Global fuel supplies face pressure from Gulf shipping disruptions and damage to Russian refineries, while diesel margins have topped $100 per barrel, encouraging US refiners to maximize output and serve global markets, according to a Bloomberg report.

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Commodities

US Power Update: US Electricity Markets Mixed as SPP Prices Peak at $247.82/MWh

US wholesale electricity markets were mixed Wednesday afternoon, with prices peaking above $150 per megawatt-hour across multiple markets, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time LMP stood at $32.41/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 48.74 GW, with natural gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 39.6%.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came in at $36.39/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 5.55 GW, while solar led the generation mix at 61.2%.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP was $63.98/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 43.51 GW, with natural gas accounting for the largest share of generation at 40.3%. Prices peaked at $247.82/MWh at 4:30 p.m. ET.PJM Interconnection's real-time LMP stood at $35.54/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 121.83 GW, with gas supplying the largest share of generation at 47%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $185.67/MWh at 10:10 a.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came in at $42.89/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 88.89 GW, with natural gas leading the generation mix at 35.2%. Prices climbed to an intraday high of $176.03/MWh at 2:40 p.m. ET.New York Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was $51.89/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 22.82 GW, with dual-fuel sources representing the largest share of generation at 33.3%.ISO New England's real-time LMP reached $67.71/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load came in at 16.37 GW, with natural gas supplying the largest share of the generation mix at 54%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP was $30.90/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 18.84 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear providing the largest share of generation at 41.9%. Prices hit an intraday peak of $125.17/MWh at 11:50 a.m. ET.The hot and dry weather pattern is expected to persist across the ERCOT region this week, with widespread highs topping 100 degrees, ERCOT said in a post on X on Tuesday.The hottest conditions are expected through the weekend, while rain chances remain minimal and mostly confined to parts of Far West Texas. ERCOT expects strong demand, with peaks in the upper 80,000- to lower 90,000-megawatt range.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across much of the West and South from Aug. 26 to Sept. 1, with near-normal and below-normal readings across parts of the Northeast.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Prices Jump on Hotter Weather Forecasts, Strong Demand

US natural gas prices rose in after-hours trade on Tuesday as forecasts for above-average temperatures across the US South boosted expectations for gas-fired power demand to meet increased air-conditioning use.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 3.83% to $2.793 per million British thermal units.The Commodity Weather Group said on Tuesday that forecasts had shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across the western and southern US through Sept. 1.The Energy Buyers' Guide noted that the Winter 2026-27 strip also rebounded, but despite today's move, winter pricing remains weaker over the past week and month. Further out, the curve was comparatively steady, with Calendar 2027 edging higher but still below last week's levels.Gelber said the latest weather forecast added another 6.7 billion cubic feet to projected demand over the next two weeks, building on Monday's upward revision as the Midwest and South Central regions shifted warmer. However, it said the warmer outlook should keep cooling demand elevated through the coming week, but temperatures and cooling degree days are still expected to ease toward seasonal levels later in the month, Gelber said.Liquefied natural gas demand could also strengthen as Freeport LNG recovers and Golden Pass commissioning volumes continue to rise, providing another source of support into the shoulder season, Gelber said.But strong production kept a lid on price rises, as it remains historically strong and projected inventory declines are still above 4.0 trillion cubic feet, which should limit the market's ability to extend the rally much beyond the upper end of its recent range, the firm said.Barchart, citing BNEF data, said US Lower-48 dry gas production on Tuesday was 112.4 Bcf/d, up 2.5% from a year earlier. Lower-48 state gas demand was 83.6 Bcf/d, up 3.2% year over year.Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals were 17.8 Bcf/d on Tuesday, up 2.7% from the previous week.The market is keeping an eye on progress on the Hugh Brinson pipeline, which is expected to reach its full transportation capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d by Sept. 1, allowing more gas to flow from the Permian Basin.

Commodities

Permian Gas Capacity Could Support 70% Production Growth Through 2031, TPH Says

Permian gas infrastructure could support production growth of about 70% as new pipelines ease capacity constraints through 2031, TPH Energy Research said in a Tuesday note.WhiteWater's Solitude Pipeline announcement aligns with TPH's updated outlook, with the system expected to ease an emerging Permian gas bottleneck heading into 2031.Higher drilling and earlier start-ups for Hugh Brinson and Blackcomb could lift Permian gas growth by about 2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, with similar gains expected in 2027.Compression limits at Hugh Brinson could keep Waha prices relatively close to Katy through late 2027 before the spread temporarily widens during the first half of 2028.Eiger's planned start-up in Q3 2028, with about 3.7 Bcf/d of capacity, should further improve Permian gas takeaway as new infrastructure comes online.By year-end 2029, Desert Southwest and Solitude Phase I could add about 4.55 Bcf/d of gas takeaway capacity. Solitude Phase II could add another 2.25 Bcf/d in 2030.TPH believes the 48-inch pipelines could support over 10 Bcf/d of total takeaway capacity with modest additional investment, up from the nominal 6.8 Bcf/d.Planned projects through 2031 could add more than 17 Bcf/d of gas takeaway capacity, versus about 10.5 Bcf/d of expected production growth, with Kinder Morgan's (KMI) Permian Link potentially adding another 2.6 Bcf/d.Permian gas output would need to rise by about 70% to fully utilize the planned capacity, while the basin's oil mix could fall by about 7.5% between 2025 and 2030.The industry may be expanding infrastructure ahead of actual production needs after earlier takeaway constraints, TPH said. That could support Waha gas pricing and increase the value of gassier acreage from 2030, while challenging data centers that expect consistently cheap Permian gas.

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