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US Crude Inventories Seen Rising Again After Record-Breaking Build, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 3.9-million-barrel build for the week ending Aug. 14, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Monday, following a 17.4-million-barrel build the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to edge higher, remaining at a robust level of about 17.2 million barrels per day. Crude exports are expected to rise by 700,000 b/d, while imports are expected to drop by 800,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, decreased by 300,000 b/d for the week ended Aug. 14, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by 5.3 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 800,000 bbls, while distillate inventories are projected to drop by 300,000 bbls and jet fuel stocks by 100,000 bbls.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.4 mm b/d.

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