The UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 closed 0.40% higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Bank of England's interest rate decision later this week, with rising oil prices and persistent Middle East tensions adding to inflation concerns.
The BoE is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% on Thursday, although policymakers are likely to maintain a hawkish tone as higher energy prices raise the risk of persistent inflation. "While we expect the central bank to keep the door open to a hike, we find it hard to believe they could actually 'out-hawk' the market. Our view is that the BoE will be on hold in 2026 and cut in late 2027. But risks of a hike later this year/early next year have become more pronounced," BofA Securities said.
Oxford Economics also warned that sustained higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions could put pressure on central banks to raise rates before the end of 2026. "Central banks that we thought would keep interest rates unchanged, including the Federal Reserve and [BoE], are coming under increasing pressure from the bond market to hike," the research firm said, adding that rising energy prices were challenging its previous expectation that rates would remain unchanged into early 2027.
Aside from the rate decision on Thursday, the UK economic calendar includes labor market data due Tuesday, August inflation and producer price data on Wednesday, and retail sales data on Friday.
On the corporate front, GSK (GSK.L) gained 4.63% at close, among the FTSE 100's strongest risers, after reporting positive lung cancer trial data. The drugmaker said its Ris-Rez antibody-drug conjugate cut the risk of death by 54% in the phase 3 Artemis-008 trial in China among patients with advanced or relapsed small-cell lung cancer, compared with topotecan.
Separately, GSK reported an objective response rate of 94% for Jideytro in previously untreated patients with advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer in updated phase 1/2 Arros-1 data. The company is expected to use the results to support a potential filing with the US Food and Drug Administration for first-line use.
In other news, the Upper Tribunal in London upheld the UK Financial Conduct Authority's lifetime ban on Crispin Odey following a sexual harassment scandal involving the hedge fund manager. However, it reduced the fine imposed on Odey to 1.5 million pounds sterling from 1.8 million pounds.