Oil, gas and electricity markets face diverging forces as Saudi supply risks lift crude while natural gas and power demand show seasonal shifts, EBW Analytics strategists said in a weekly note on Sunday.
West Texas Intermediate climbed to $104.46 per barrel Friday after Iraqi drone attacks halted Saudi Arabia's 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline, a major route around the Strait of Hormuz, EBW analysts said.
Renewed US-Iran hostilities and stronger Chinese consumption have tightened the crude market, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have added fresh concerns about global supply adequacy.
US crude inventories remain above the five-year average, but refinery runs reached seven-year highs as crack spreads hit records, increasing the potential for larger draws if imports tighten.
Chinese crude demand is gaining seasonal momentum as Iranian and Russian supplies weaken amid US and Ukrainian attacks, adding further upward pressure on oil prices, EBW said.
WTI's move above $100/bbl and technical strength support further gains, while the International Energy Agency's call for additional demand reductions suggests higher prices may help balance the market.
EBW sees October WTI testing higher at $95/bbl to $106.50/bbl over 7 to 10 days, with a $104.25/bbl target, before November futures begin to erode toward $83.50/bbl over 30 to 45 days.
EBW sees longer-term oil weakness as Chinese demand declines 600,000 b/d from a year earlier, while Iraqi calls for higher quotas or an OPEC exit could weigh on prices through 2027 and beyond.
US distillate prices topped $6 per gallon as IEA lowered its 2026 demand outlook by 940,000 b/d, while steep global inventory draws point to further price gains to curb demand.
Natural gas faces longer-term pressure from high starting inventories, rising production and a super El Nino that could bring milder heating through the first half of 2027, EBW said.
Against that backdrop, October gas settled at $2.888 per million British thermal units Friday, up 7.7 cents, or 2.7%, over the week, but failed to hold above $3/MMBtu.
EBW sees near-term support for October gas, forecasting a $2.76/MMBtu to $2.99/MMBtu range and a $2.86/MMBtu target over 7 to 10 days, while November could reach $3.03/MMBtu over 30 to 45 days.
A 99 billion cubic feet storage deficit in the South Central region could provide further support by leaving more room for injections and arbitrage over the next 30 to 45 days, EBW said.
Weather could add upside pressure, with early cold spells in the 11-15 day forecast potentially lifting gas prices into late October if production remains constrained, EBW said.
Demand also remains supportive in the near term, as weekend heat added nine cooling degree days and liquefied natural gas demand reached a 20-week high, EBW said.
However, production approached record levels despite Marcellus spot prices averaging $1.43/MMBtu, pointing to significant regional curtailments and a potential supply headwind.
Power demand began its seasonal retreat last week as lower cooling degree days and the Labor Day holiday reduced loads by as much as 6%, while power-sector gas demand fell 2.4 billion cubic feet per day.
Day-ahead peak power prices fell across most of the Lower 48, with PJM West at $59.81 per megawatt-hour, MISO Indiana at $65.71/MWh and California's NP-15 at $48.93/MWh, while ERCOT North rose to $34.95/MWh.
Seasonal nuclear maintenance cut generation by 3% over the week, increasing gas-fired power demand by 0.4 Bcf/d as natural gas gained a larger share of the generation mix, EBW said.
EBW expects seasonal cooling to reduce electricity demand another 1.6% this week and power-sector gas consumption by 1.2 Bcf/d, with a larger decline likely as the heat breaks.
The Energy Department may begin rulemaking tied to President Trump's order on foreign-made grid components, potentially slowing battery storage growth if it tightens restrictions on Chinese-made equipment.