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US Oil Update: Crude Falls After Reports of Gulf-Iran Talks to Ease Hormuz Risks

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Crude oil futures closed lower in after-hours trading on Friday, but notched sharp weekly gains, as markets weighed reports of potential talks between Iran and Gulf states to ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures slipped 2.4% to $99.99 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.3% to $104.31/bbl.

Gelber & Associates strategists said that the pullback reflects a partial reduction in the immediate Hormuz risk premium rather than a meaningful improvement in physical supply, with vessel traffic still severely restricted.

US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 400,000 barrels to 424.1 mmbbls in the week ended Sep. 4, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report released Thursday.

Crude inventories matched the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said. The draw is significantly below Investing.com's estimate of 1.4 million barrels for the week ended Sep. 4.

Gelber & Associates analysts said WTI is still on track for a weekly gain of over 8%, making Friday's decline a volatile reversal in a market dominated by Middle East shipping disruptions.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline as a precaution after it came under multiple attacks in the Riyadh and Medina regions.

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said that the attacks caused several injuries and that emergency teams are taking steps to secure the pipeline and assess its safety.

Diplomats from the six-member bloc of Gulf countries are set to meet Iranian officials on Monday in a push by Oman and Iran to secure buy-in for a deal to temporarily manage shipping via the Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that the meeting would bring together Iran, Iraq and other countries bordering the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, describing the initiative as an important step toward strengthening regional understanding and cooperation.

Saxo Bank strategists said that the meeting would be the first at this level since the war began, underscoring the growing urgency to restore more reliable maritime flows through the Gulf.

Fueling bearish sentiment, the International Energy Agency said on Friday that disruptions to global oil supplies are forcing lower consumption. The IEA slashed its forecast for this year's decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels per day, projecting a drop of 2.5 million b/d.

The agency projected that 2026 will see the biggest contraction in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic as a result of higher fuel costs and lower supply.

Crude demand is projected to recover by 2.6 million b/d in 2027, narrowly offsetting this year's losses, the IEA said.

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Oil & Energy

Hormuz Traffic Remains Subdued as Iran Maintains Pressure on Shipping

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels as Iran continues to surveil merchant vessels, while US forces have redirected almost 100 commercial ships to enforce compliance, shipping data showed Thursday.The UKMTO said Thursday in its 96-hour operational summary that no confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported during the latest period.However, activity by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has persisted, including drone overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping and occasional radio hailing.The UKMTO said that activity signals Iran's continued intent to assert its presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on vessels using the strait.It said that independent vessel-tracking data showed traffic remained suppressed, with single-digit numbers of ships transiting in each direction.However, the agency said the US Navy reported higher activity, with commercial traffic averaging more than 20 vessel transits a day over the past week.The differing figures reflect the challenges of assessing shipping activity through the strategic waterway amid heightened security measures and changes in vessel-routing behavior.US forces have redirected 96 commercial vessels as of Sep. 10 as part of efforts to ensure compliance with restrictions, the US Central Command said in an X post. Over 50 vessels carrying humanitarian aid have been permitted to transit.Meanwhile, conditions in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb did not change, with no confirmed attacks or disruptions reported during the latest period.Commercial traffic remains below normal levels, consistent with the pattern established after the July 20 Houthi declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and earlier confirmed attacks on vessels in the region.On Thursday, Yemen's Houthis reportedly seized control of the port city of Mocha on Thursday and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands.Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam posted on X Thursday, saying that operations carried out by the Yemeni armed forces in some coastal areas were a national operation aimed at enforcing Yemeni sovereignty and addressing threats to civil peace.On maritime traffic, Abdulsalam said navigation and international trade through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb were safe and orderly, with no threat from Yemen."As for the freedom of navigation and international trade movement in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, it is safe and orderly, and there is no cause for any international concern regarding it, for it faces no danger from Yemen's side, and the operations currently underway are targeted in accordance with what was previously announced and fall within a defensive framework," according to a translation of Abdulsalam's post on X.Abdulsalam's remarks contrast with the continued caution among ship operators, with reduced traffic through both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb indicating heightened security concerns and the risk of vessels becoming caught up in regional hostilities.

Oil & Energy

Brent, WTI Surge 7% to Highest Levels Since May on Middle East Uncertainty

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Dangote Refinery Buys 16 Million Barrels of Nigerian Crude for October

Nigeria's Dangote refinery has bought at least 16 million barrels of Nigerian crude for October delivery, maintaining recent purchase levels as the 700,000-barrels-per-day plant ramps up processing, Reuters reported on Thursday.The volumes, equivalent to about 520,000 b/d, reportedly include monthly allocations from Nigerian National Petroleum, or NNPC, and crude purchased through a tender.Dangote received 565,000 b/d of Nigerian crude in August, nearly double last year's average, Reuters said, citing Kpler data. NNPC is to supply eight October Nigerian cargoes and one US WTI Midland cargo, while additional spot purchases will bring the total to 16 million barrels.Dangote Refinery and NNPC did not immediately respond to requests for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)