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RBC Sees Canada's CPI Holding at 3.0% Y/Y in August

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Canada's consumer price index is expected to hold at 3.0% annually in August, according to RBC Economics in a note.

Energy inflation remains high, but little changed from July, as gasoline prices slipped slightly monthly but remain 23% above year-ago levels, wrote the bank in a Friday note. Food inflation has moderated in recent months but is expected to hold near 3%.

Statistics Canada is slated to release August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday.

Core price pressures are expected to stay subdued in August, with inflation projected at roughly 1.9% annually, added the bank.

While the Bank of Canada has warned that elevated energy prices could broaden inflationary pressures and lead to further rate hikes, signs of significant pass-through remain limited, according to RBC. Inflation breadth is steady, and the BoC's preferred core measures remain broadly aligned with the 2% year-over-year target.

The risk of earlier BoC rate hikes is rising, particularly if underlying inflation accelerates or economic activity remains resilient, said the bank.

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International

Supplier Costs for New Zealand Supermarkets Rise Nearly 2% in August

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showed an average 1.9% year-over-year increase in supplier costs for supermarkets in August, unchanged from July's result, according to an Infometrics report on Monday.Supplier costs rose across all departments in August compared with a year earlier, with seafood and butchery costs remaining higher due to sustained global demand and pricing trends, although the pace of cost growth for chilled foods slowed a little amid slightly lower dairy costs."The August data continues a recent trend of a more elevated number of cost increases being recorded, but at a less intense pace than originally expected," said Brad Olsen, principal economist at Infometrics."Broader input cost data shows businesses were either less willing to raise costs, or unable to respond as quickly as the knock-on economic effects of the Middle East conflict emerged," Olsen added.The renewed conflict continues to cloud the cost outlook for the remainder of this year, with oil prices moving higher again and raising expectations for further cost adjustments in the coming months, Olsen said.

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International

Australia's Annual Pace of Inflation Expected to Rise in August, Westpac Says

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.4% in August from the previous month, which would increase the annual pace of inflation to 4% from 3.5% in July, Westpac said in a Monday report.The bank expects a 0.7% monthly CPI increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.Meanwhile, the August trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation is expected to rise 0.2%, down from the 0.4% average over the previous three months and holding the annual pace steady at 3.6%, the bank said.Westpac also revised its CPI estimate for the third quarter to 1.3% from 1.1% previously, and now expects the quarterly trimmed mean to print at 0.9%, compared with a previous call of 0.8%."A stronger-than-expected July set a higher starting point which we expect to be partially unwound in August-September," the bank said, adding that it still foresees a moderation in the fourth quarter with the trimmed mean reading expected at 0.7%.Westpac now sees annual headline inflation at 2.4% by the end of 2027 and at 2.3% by the close of 2028, noting that its year-ended estimates are below the Reserve Bank of Australia's current forecasts.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand Farmer Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions in January Show Strongest Reading Since 2017

New Zealand farmer perceptions of present general economic conditions strengthened further to a net 37% viewing conditions as good in January, the strongest reading since 2017, according to the Federated Farmers' January Farm Confidence Survey released on Monday.The result indicates continued benefits from official cash rate cuts to 2.25%, strong commodity prices, and reduced debt servicing costs.In January 2025, farmer confidence rose 68 points since July 2024, rebounding to a net positive score of 2% from negative 66%.Forward sentiment in January was modestly positive at net 4%, down from 6% in July 2025, signaling a shift away from negativity since 2014. However, cost pressures and market volatility concerns continue to create a gap between strong current performance and a cautious future outlook.Current farm profitability reached a record 70%, with the recovery across most sectors stable, but profit expectations turned negative for the first time since early 2024, with a 21-point drop driven by dairy's decline to negative 32% due to margin concerns.

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