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OECD Cuts Philippines GDP Growth Projections for 2026, 2027

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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trimmed the Philippines' real GDP growth outlook to 3.2% in 2026 from the 5.1% projection in December 2025.

The growth forecast for 2027 was also cut to 5% from 5.8% previously due to weaker household demand and higher inflation, according to a Thursday report.

The OECD said private consumption is expected to soften as rising energy prices and weaker labour market conditions weigh on real incomes.

Inflation is projected to rise further due to higher energy costs and peso depreciation, while the current account deficit is expected to widen, it said.

The organization also said the Philippines, as a net energy importer, remains vulnerable to global energy price shocks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The country's monetary policy is expected to tighten in 2026, while fiscal policy will remain expansionary in the near term due to energy-related support measures, OECD said.

The public investment is expected to recover gradually after weakening in late 2025, though risks remain tilted to the downside, according to the report.

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