Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) continues to outperform banking majors with a simple and fully digitized platform, according to Jarden in a Thursday note.
At this pace, Macquarie may surpass around 10% market share on both sides of the balance sheet in the near term. Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (ASX:CBA) net interest margin edge, free deposits look tenuous with IT and competition from Macquarie, ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ, NZE: ANZ), National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), and potentially, stablecoins. Strong volumes are offset by competition.
Jarden considered the fiscal year 2026 Australian budget as changing incentives, increasing complexity, and exacerbating the skew to financialization over increasing physical industrial capacity.
High valuations reflect market index concentration and disappointment in other sectors, but expose major banks to abrupt and extreme mean reversion if the status quo changes.
The investment firm assigned ANZ Group an overweight rating and price target of AU$35.50 per share. It also has sell ratings on Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, and Westpac Banking (ASX:WBC, NZE:WBC) with price targets of AU$90 per share, AU$29 per share, and AU$31 per share, respectively.
It also assigned Macquarie a buy rating with a price target of AU$250 per share, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX:BEN) a neutral rating with a AU$11 per share price target, Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) a sell rating with a price target of AU$5.50 per share, and Judo Capital Holdings (ASX:JDO) a buy rating with a price target of AU$2.50 per share.