GrainCorp's (ASX:GNC) fiscal 2027 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimate was almost unchanged at around AU$217 million, but there is more skepticism than consensus on the firm's through-the-cycle earnings power, with the fiscal 2028 EBITDA estimate 16% and net profit after tax estimate 39% below consensus, Jarden said in a note on Tuesday.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' (ABARES) first fiscal 2027 crop estimate east coast winter crop of 23.8 million metric tons is in line with expectations and consistent with an average crop size. If the El Niño phenomenon develops over June and July, creating soft levels of rainfall, then for fiscal 2027 there are downside risks to ABARES' forecast.
The canola crop forecast is relevant for GrainCorp's nutrition and energy segment, with Jarden estimating it to account for 48% of the fiscal 2027 EBITDA estimate. ABARES' fiscal 2027 east coast canola crop estimate of 2.2 million metric tons is well below the fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2026 period but is impacted by a weak New South Wales forecast.
The investment firm retained its neutral rating and AU$5.40 price target on GrainCorp.
GrainCorp's shares gained about 2% in recent Wednesday trade.