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Low Wind, Nuclear Outages Push Belgian Power Prices to Record High, Kpler Says

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Belgian day-ahead power prices climbed to a record 1,038.25 euros ($1181.29) per megawatt-hour on June 24 as weak wind generation and nuclear outages tightened electricity supply, Kpler said in a Thursday note.

Belgium's 20:45 CET day-ahead contract exceeded 1,000 euros/MWh for the first time since 15-minute trading began in September 2025. The price also surpassed the previous record of 658.09 euros/MWh, which was set for the same delivery period on June 23.

Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark's DK1 zone all cleared above 600 euros/MWh during the 20:45 CET trading block on June 24.

Kpler said weak wind generation, rather than heat-driven electricity demand, drove the elevated prices.

As solar generation faded during the evening hours, the remaining electricity demand shifted to a limited thermal generation fleet with little spare flexibility, Kpler said.

German wind generation was forecast to fall to about 2 GW during the evening peak on June 24, or about 16% of seasonal averages. Wind output in Denmark and Poland also dropped below 50% of normal seasonal levels.

Belgium faced the greatest supply pressure because an eight-month nuclear outage removed 2.3 GW of baseload capacity through October.

France, by comparison, cleared at 281 euros/MWh, creating a 757 euros/MWh price spread as interconnector flows reached capacity across Central Western Europe.

Central Eastern European markets also remained under pressure, with prices ranging from 645 euros/MWh to 705 euros/MWh.

Poland's electricity demand remained near 20 GW, within seasonal expectations, suggesting prices rose due to weak wind generation and limited thermal supply rather than cooling demand.

Belgium's supply curve tightened significantly during the 20:45 CET block. Kpler estimated an additional 3 MWh of supply demand would have pushed prices to the European day-ahead market cap of 4,000 euros/MWh, while only 2.3 MWh of supply remained before scarcity conditions could trigger market splitting.

Southern European electricity demand responded more strongly to rising temperatures than Northern Europe. Italy's demand increased by about 1.3 GW for every 1-degree Celsius rise in temperature in 2026, up from about 1.2 GW in 2021.

Italy cleared at 260 euros/MWh and the Iberian market at 150 euros/MWh on June 23 because ample gas-fired generation covered the evening ramp.

Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, meanwhile, showed little temperature-driven demand response.

Belgium's electricity demand increased by only about 117 MW for every 1-degree Celsius rise in temperature in 2026.

Kpler said the limited demand response suggests low wind generation and constrained thermal capacity, rather than hotter weather, triggered the record price spike.

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