Keyera Provides Business Update, 2026 Outlook Following Plains Asset Acquisition

FINWIRES Analysis

The upgraded synergy range to $120-140 million and ~35% EBITDA-per-share growth signal the Plains integration is tracking ahead of the case set at announcement. Newly added frac-spread and marketing exposure boosts upside but injects commodity-margin volatility into a previously fee-heavy model. Execution on 2026 fractionation expansion and capacity fill is the key proof point for the longer 2027-2029 target.

Key Takeaways

Synergy target raised to $120-140 million

~35% fee-based EBITDA/share growth by 2027

Marketing adds frac-spread margin volatility

Keyera (KEY.TO) provided a business update and multi-year growth outlook following the completion of its acquisition of Plains' Canadian natural gas liquids assets, the company said in a Monday news release.

Keyera expects fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share to increase by about 35% or an approximate 16% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2027.

The growth targets reflect the contributions from the Plains acquisition, realization of near-term synergies, 2026 fractionation capacity expansions, and continued filling of available capacity across the integrated system.

Keyera is also targeting a 7% to 8% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share CAGR from 2027 to 2029, supported by continued filling of available capacity, completion of major growth projects and further optimization of the combined platform.

The outlook is supported by strong basin fundamentals, with oil, natural gas and NGL production across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin expected to continue growing as export market access expands and global demand for Canadian energy products increases.

Keyera has realized its initial $100 million annual run-rate near-term synergy target, with about $90 million in corporate cost savings already captured since the Plains transaction was announced in June 2025.

As a result, Keyera now expects total near-term annual run-rate synergies to range from $120 million to $140 million, expected to be realized within the first 12 months after deal closing.

With the addition of Plains Marketing business, Keyera's platform now includes frac-spread exposure, which represents another important source of liquids supply for the company's integrated system.

Keyera expects Marketing realized margin to be between $360 to $390 million in 2026.

Taking into account the partial-year contribution of Plains assets, 2026 growth capital spending is expected at $550 million to $625 million and maintenance capital at $240 million to $260 million.

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