Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to a two-month low as a surge in US-Iran hostilities and vessel attacks compels maritime operators to prioritize defensive routing over traditional transit routes, shipping data showed on Monday.
MarineTraffic data indicate that confirmed crossings through the strategic chokepoint fell by about 52% over the week from July 10-12.
Over the weekend, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, following which the US Central Command rolled out a series of strikes against Iran, intensifying security concerns along the Strait and sparking a drop in vessel transits.
The US Centcom said its forces conducted strikes using one-way attack surface drones against a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base.
"Last night's [Sunday] strikes degraded Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial shipping," Centcom said in a post on X.
Additionally, Trump revealed a new Hormuz security plan on Monday and said that the Strait was open for vessels.
Shipping operators, however, remained cautious. MarineTraffic data showed operators shifting away from standard International Maritime Organization and Omani corridors and increasingly using Iranian and dark or AIS-disabled routes.
"Although no new IMO-confirmed physical attacks have been reported since 27 June, renewed US-Iran tensions and recent IRGC warnings continue to weigh on confidence, reinforcing a cautious approach to commercial shipping through the region," MarineTraffic said.
The US-Iran tit-for-tat attacks add another layer of uncertainty for energy markets already monitoring risks around the Hormuz, where Iran has previously threatened shipping activity during periods of heightened confrontation with Washington.
Meanwhile, according to an analysis by the shipbroker Gibson published Friday, US crude exports have supported global shipping by replacing disrupted Middle Eastern supply, particularly on long-haul routes to Asia.
"The biggest growth was seen in long haul trade to Asia, which doubled from the 2025 baseline," Gibsons analysts said, noting that this growth was mostly fueled by the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release.
However, analysts said export growth is slowing and spare capacity is becoming limited, meaning a renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could tighten cargo availability and increase volatility in tanker markets.
Analysts questioned whether the US could sustain these heightened export flows. Citing preliminary AIS data, analysts said that weekly US Gulf Coast crude exports have been steadily declining since May, with last week's data indicating a fall to their lowest level in the last three months.
"Overall, the US has done the bulk of the heavy lifting in keeping global markets supplied through the crisis, but its capacity to keep doing so is diminishing," analysts said.
Analysts warned that if renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lead to another prolonged closure, global oil supplies would tighten significantly, while tanker markets could face a sharp drop in demand.
"With global inventories rapidly depleted in recent months, this is a recipe for much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risk for tanker markets," analysts said.