The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to maintain the range for its federal funds rate at the current 3.50% to 3.75% for the fifth straight meeting as uncertainty remains elevated, though the outcome is less certain than for the previous meeting.
Currently, the CME's FedWatch Tool sees a 68.5% chance of no change to the current target range and a 31.5% chance of a 25-basis point increase to 3.75% to 4.00%.
The FOMC's statement following Wednesday's meeting is due to be released at 2:00 pm ET, with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference scheduled to begin at 2:30 pm ET. There will be no update to the Summary of Economic Projections at this week's meeting.
The statement from the previous meeting, the first under Warsh's leadership, was significantly shorter than it had been for several years and Warsh's comments after the meeting showed that the age of substantial forward guidance has passed.
However, the updated Summary of Economic Projections and the minutes of that meeting did indicate the concerns about inflation had been the key topic of discussion at the meeting and that there was shift toward the need for rate increases for some members.
In testimony on Capitol Hill on July 14 and July 15, Warsh said that the FOMC has "no tolerance" for elevated inflation and is focused on restoring price stability, suggesting that the heightened inflation of the last five years will be "a thing of the past" if policy is done right.
June consumer price data released on July 14 showed a decline in the overall price level, due in large part to falling gasoline prices, and a flat reading for core prices, slowing the year-over-year rates but leaving them well above the 2% target.
Warsh said during his testimony that the June CPI was just one data point and that the FOMC's top job now is assuring that short-term inflation does not become sticky and longer lasting.
New York Fed President John Williams said on July 15 that economic growth is solid and the labor market is stable but noted that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% goal and needs to be brought down. He added that the stance of monetary policy is "well positioned" to deal with inflation, which he expects to slow in coming quarters.
However, some FOMC members are not convinced that the current stance of policy is adequate to deal with inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a voter on the FOMC this year, said on July 16 that the federal funds rate may need to be raised due to inflation that has been elevated for an extended period and is showing few signs of moving back to the Fed's 2% target.
As a result, it is possible that there could be one or more dissenting votes at this meeting as some voters voice their preference for a rate increase.
Currently, there is an 89.2% chance being priced in for at least one rate increase by the end of 2026, with some outliers seeing as many as three to four rate hikes.