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Etsy Could Meet High End of GMS Guidance Amid AI Search, Product Improvements, Oppenheimer Says in Upgrade

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Etsy Could Meet High End of GMS Guidance Amid AI Search, Product Improvements, Oppenheimer Says in Upgrade

Etsy (ETSY) could achieve the high end of its gross merchandise sales target as better artificial intelligence search tools and updates are improving user engagement and conversion rates, Oppenheimer said in a note e-mailed Tuesday.

The brokerage upgraded its rating on the online marketplace's stock to outperform from perform, with a $90 price target, citing AI search benefits, product improvements and app engagement and conversion.

Regression of Similarweb (SMWB) website visits implies third-quarter non-app buyers were flat year over year, compared with a 3% drop in the second quarter. This suggests that the high end of Etsy's gross merchandise sales, or GMS, outlook is "achievable," Oppenheimer analysts, including Jason Helfstein, said in the note to clients.

Similarweb is an AI-powered digital data company providing real-time market intelligence.

Last month, Etsy raised its full-year GMS growth outlook to the mid-single-digit range. GMS measures the total dollar amount of items sold on the platform.

A survey of 2,500 consumers in the US indicated that 88% of buyers went directly to Etsy's website or app instead of Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Google Search, demonstrating a robust competitive moat and less dependence on search engines, Oppenheimer said in the note.

About 25% of buyers indicated either an improvement in search, product selection or item descriptions. Of the 54% of lapsed buyers, or consumers that never purchased from Etsy, about 33% and 22% listed discounts and selection as their most likely reason for a future purchase, respectively, according to the brokerage.

"Broad product improvements clear, but reactivating and adding new buyers remains difficult," the analysts said.

Oppenheimer still estimates Etsy's non-app GMS growth in the second half of the year to be similar to the second quarter, while "conservatively" assuming a lack of improvement in app GMS on a two-year basis despite "clear product improvements."

Last month, e-commerce company eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly estimates.

Price: $74.41, Change: $-0.05, Percent Change: -0.07%

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