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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Climbs as Heightened Mideast Conflict Fuels Supply Fears

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EMEA crude futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Tuesday after Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and heightened US-Iran conflict stoked fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures gained 0.5% to $97.48 per barrel, while Dubai 1st Line Futures surged 1.9% to $93.26/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said that crude surged about 10% last week as renewed US-Iran clashes, including US strikes on Iranian tankers and attacks on ships and military targets around the Strait of Hormuz, stoked supply fears.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Affairs Ministry said Yemen's Houthis targeted civilian and economic assets in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. More than 70 civilians were injured in the attacks, the ministry said.

The ministry said that the attacks caused fires at several energy facilities, resulting in temporary shutdowns, and emergency services are working to contain fires at the sites. The Houthis, in a statement, said that they targeted Saudi Aramco facilities in southern areas with drones and ballistic missiles.

The attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure follow renewed US-Iran strikes on vessels in and around the Hormuz.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Monday that any US attack on Iran's oil and gas assets will draw retaliation against American energy interests across the Persian Gulf region.

"It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets, and you get struck," Qalibaf said in a social media post on X.

Tempering the gains, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said "significant progress" has been made in talks with Oman over a temporary transit route through the Hormuz.

Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said on Monday that the agreement, which the two countries have been negotiating for several weeks, is in the final stages and will include details on a temporary safe route through the strategic waterway.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said that the Iran-Oman agreement over how to operate the SoH is just days away from finalization. Schieldrop said the IMO and the US have been involved in the process.

On the supply front, OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to keep the oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting, it said in a statement, as the producer group needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next output steps.

The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt crude flows through the Hormuz.

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