FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally as Middle East Conflict Escalates

By

European natural gas futures soared on Monday to their highest level since December 2022 as the conflict in the Middle East intensified over the weekend, deepening concerns over regional energy supplies amid few signs of an imminent de-escalation.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures surged 4.85% to 83.375 euros ($96.18) per megawatt-hour, while British NBP futures rose 4.57% to 207.330 British pence ($2.79) per therm.

Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its critical 1,200-kilometer East-West oil pipeline following drone attacks on Friday, further complicating energy flows across the region, as reported by.

Meanwhile, hopes for a diplomatic solution between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz suffered another setback after a meeting scheduled for Monday was postponed "in the interests of consensus," according to Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi.

Salim Al-Aufi, Oman's minister of energy and minerals also called for the identification of "alternative export options" to ensure steady LNG flows through the region, during the Gastech conference in Bangkok on Monday, according to a Bloomberg report.

Traffic along the Hormuz continued to hold steady, with 22 transits on Sunday, despite the raging conflict, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said hopes for a resumption of Qatari LNG flows "diminished" rapidly, helping drive a surge in European gas prices last week, as the region continued to deal with low inventory levels.

European natural gas inventories stood at 68.04% of capacity, compared to 80.35% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 84.3% according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Fortunately, weather forecasts have continued to point to a warmer-than-average winter across the region, with the UK's Met Office saying that the probability of a warm and wet autumn and early winter in the UK is around 1.5 to two times higher than normally expected.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service similarly expects above-average temperatures for winter as a whole across virtually all European land areas.

This offers much-needed relief for the region as it eases pressure on heating gas demand, which remained significantly below historic levels.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

Crude Closes Out 2nd Straight Week of Gains Amid Middle East Escalation

Crude prices tracked their second straight week of gains after touching triple-digit highs this week, driven by intense Middle East military friction, shrinking US inventories, and rising Chinese physical demand.West Texas Intermediate settled at $99.99 per barrel, up from $91.24/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $104.50/bbl, up from $95.83/bbl a week earlier.Both Brent and WTI futures contracts gained about 9% on a weekly basis."Oil's resilience reflects a market now repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict, along with a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply," ING analysts said.However, analysts said supplies remain constrained. "And while meaningful volumes are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain well below pre-war levels, underscoring how fragile the situation has become," ING added.The broader upward run was heavily driven by intensifying geopolitical friction in the Middle East, including a massive wave of tit-for-tat maritime attacks between US and Iranian forces in and around the Strait of Hormuz.Satellite images and reports confirmed smoke near Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline following Houthi drone and missile attacks on civilian and energy assets in cities like Abha, Jazan, and Najran, which caused fires and temporary shutdowns.Compounding regional supply anxieties, US military strikes targeted Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and the port city of Jask, while Washington rolled out new sanctions targeting networks aiding Hezbollah and Kata'ib Hezbollah.On the supply and inventory front, the Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels to 424.1 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 4.The EIA separately noted that US distillate fuel inventories are projected to drop below the 100 mmbbl mark in September and remain beneath five-year lows through much of 2027, driven by strong export demand.Meanwhile, the US oil rig count increased by one from 449 the previous week to 450 in the week ending Sept. 11, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. The US had 416 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, increased by six to 798 from 792 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets boosted their net long positions in the week ended Sept. 8, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released Friday.The data showed that money managers reported 218,960 long positions, up 7,851 from Sept. 1, while short positions fell 3,790 to 107,229, lifting their net long position by 11,641 contracts to 111,731.The International Energy Agency on Friday said a full recovery in Middle East supplies is not expected before 2027, projecting average global oil supplies to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026.In its monthly oil market report for September, the agency revised its 2026 average global oil supply forecast to 100.7 million b/d, 1.3 million b/d lower than in its previous report.Meanwhile, demand signals from Asia provided further support as independent Chinese refiners ramped up refinery run rates.In response to strengthening global energy markets, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to raise retail fuel prices while keeping hikes below official ceilings to protect consumers, several media outlets reported.Political commentary also shaped sentiment, with US President Donald Trump saying during a press gaggle at Joint Base Andrews that elevated crude prices could persist through the midterm elections before tumbling toward sub-$2 gasoline levels once the conflict subsides.

$BKR
Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Falls After Reports of Gulf-Iran Talks to Ease Hormuz Risks

Crude oil futures closed lower in after-hours trading on Friday, but notched sharp weekly gains, as markets weighed reports of potential talks between Iran and Gulf states to ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures slipped 2.4% to $99.99 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.3% to $104.31/bbl.Gelber & Associates strategists said that the pullback reflects a partial reduction in the immediate Hormuz risk premium rather than a meaningful improvement in physical supply, with vessel traffic still severely restricted.US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 400,000 barrels to 424.1 mmbbls in the week ended Sep. 4, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report released Thursday.Crude inventories matched the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said. The draw is significantly below Investing.com's estimate of 1.4 million barrels for the week ended Sep. 4.Gelber & Associates analysts said WTI is still on track for a weekly gain of over 8%, making Friday's decline a volatile reversal in a market dominated by Middle East shipping disruptions.On Friday, Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline as a precaution after it came under multiple attacks in the Riyadh and Medina regions.Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said that the attacks caused several injuries and that emergency teams are taking steps to secure the pipeline and assess its safety.Diplomats from the six-member bloc of Gulf countries are set to meet Iranian officials on Monday in a push by Oman and Iran to secure buy-in for a deal to temporarily manage shipping via the Hormuz.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that the meeting would bring together Iran, Iraq and other countries bordering the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, describing the initiative as an important step toward strengthening regional understanding and cooperation.Saxo Bank strategists said that the meeting would be the first at this level since the war began, underscoring the growing urgency to restore more reliable maritime flows through the Gulf.Fueling bearish sentiment, the International Energy Agency said on Friday that disruptions to global oil supplies are forcing lower consumption. The IEA slashed its forecast for this year's decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels per day, projecting a drop of 2.5 million b/d.The agency projected that 2026 will see the biggest contraction in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic as a result of higher fuel costs and lower supply.Crude demand is projected to recover by 2.6 million b/d in 2027, narrowly offsetting this year's losses, the IEA said.

Oil & Energy

Fuel Crunch Leaves Washington With Few Options as Refinery Margins Soar, Kpler Says

US refiners are earning extraordinary margins as Americans face sharply higher gasoline and diesel prices, leaving the Trump administration with few conventional options to ease fuel costs without creating new supply disruptions, Kpler analyst Michelle Brouhard said in a note Friday.The national average for regular gasoline is $4.30 per gallon, up 34% from $3.19/gal a year ago, while diesel is about $6.06/gal, up almost 63%, according to AAA.Trump met with refinery executives last week after criticizing major oil companies for making what he called excessive profits.The six largest US energy companies with refining operations earned $24.7 billion from refining in the second quarter, nearly five times the year-earlier level, Brouhard said, citing the Wall Street Journal.Kpler estimates US refinery margins could average about $42 per barrel in Q3, versus roughly $14 a year earlier.Refineries are already running near their limits, with utilization approaching 98%. Yet US transport-fuel demand is falling, with Kpler estimating consumption declined by about 230,000 barrels per day year over year in both the second and third quarters.The administration has already used traditional tools, including a 172 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, Jones Act waivers, fuel-specification waivers, and measures to expand domestic production, refining, and logistics capacity. Those steps offer limited immediate relief.That leaves two potential near-term strategies, increasing global product supplies through diplomacy or restricting US fuel exports.Washington could encourage China to increase refinery runs and exports or seek an easing of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. More global supply could reduce demand for US products, although additional Chinese production would also increase crude demand.Export controls would keep more US gasoline, diesel and jet fuel at home and could lower Gulf Coast prices. However, regional effects would vary, with the Gulf Coast producing a large surplus while the East and West coasts remain dependent on outside supplies.Restricting exports could also prompt refiners to cut production if margins collapse, ultimately reducing domestic supply and straining US allies and trading partners that rely on American refined products.With refiners operating near capacity, policymakers face a choice between restoring global supply through diplomacy and directly limiting US product exports.Sustainable price relief ultimately depends on restoring refining capacity and fuel flows disrupted by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.