FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally Amid Latest US Attacks Against Iran, US Naval Blockade

By

European natural gas futures were up on Wednesday, hovering near their highest levels in over three months, as tensions continued to mount in the Middle East and intensified supply constraints.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 4.18% to 55.175 euros ($63.03) per megawatt-hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract gained 4.27% to 133.620 British pence ($1.79) per therm.

US Central Command said in a post on X on Wednesday that it had conducted another "round of strikes against Iran," targeting coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites located on the Greater Tunb Island, to weaken Tehran's ability to target commercial ships along the Strait of Hormuz.

In a Truth Social post, US President Donald Trump warned that Iran was headed towards "total destruction," while noting that the Strait of Hormuz was open to all ship traffic, besides Iran.

Trump also said that he was replacing the 20% US reimbursement fee, which he had floated earlier this week, in favor of trade and investment deals with various Gulf states.

Despite the escalation, traffic along the strait, which usually accounts for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained elevated, with a total of 30 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, warned that this will "undoubtedly increase the difficult process of refilling storage facilities in Europe ahead of the next winter heating season," as the bloc would have to compete with Asia, which is battling high summer temperatures.

Hynes cited China's latest commodity trade data to back his views, noting that gas imports into the country continued to recover in June, reaching 10.9 million tonnes.

European gas inventories remained low, at 52.52% of capacity, compared to 63.02% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 67.8%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

All of this comes just after Western Europe set a record for its hottest June in history, with an average temperature of 20.74 degrees Celsius, which was three degrees above the 1991 to 2020 average, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher as US Strikes Iran, Trump Drops 20% Hormuz Toll

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the US launched fresh military strikes against Iran before reinstating the naval blockade and heightening concerns over supply disruptions even as President Trump abandoned plans for a 20% Hormuz shipping fee.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced by 2.2% to $79.87 per barrel, while Brent futures rose 2.5% to $85.39/bbl.The US military launched more airstrikes against Iran on Tuesday as it prepares to reimpose a blockade on the country's ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. ET, US Central Command said in a social media post."US Central Command forces began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," US Centcom said in a post on X.The attacks follow an announcement by Trump that he would replace the 20% protection fee for cargo transiting the Hormuz that he had floated a day ago, with trade and investment deals from Gulf countries."Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States," Trump said in a Truth Social post.The reversal comes after growing opposition to Trump's proposed protection fee within the shipping industry, including from the International Maritime Organization.Previously, Iran had demanded tolls for safe passage but agreed not to impose the fee for 60 days under the interim peace deal it signed with the US.The security situation in the key has deteriorated over the past week as Iran has attacked commercial ships.Vessel transits via the Strait of Hormuz continued to decline on Monday, according to MarineTraffic data, which showed a total of 10 verified crossings on July 13, down by six from the previous day."Low risk commercial vessels accounted for the sharpest day on day reduction, while nine of the 10 crossings used the Iranian Route," according to MarineTraffic.TPH Energy analysts said the slowdown comes amid heightened security risks following deadly attacks on two UAE oil tankers, claimed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.Earlier on Tuesday, the UAE said two of its tankers were struck while transiting the waterway's southern shipping lane. Adnoc Logistics & Services, the shipping arm of Adnoc, said the two oil tankers that came under attack, the Al Bahyah and Mombasa B, suffered significant damage.Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, alleging that the Gulf state had bombed an airport under the group's control on Monday.A wider conflict with the Houthis, who have in the past targeted Red Sea shipping, could jeopardize Saudi Arabia's oil exports through its East-West Pipeline, which allows crude to bypass Hormuz, according to a Kpler note on Tuesday.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: US Advances Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline Talks to Bypass Hormuz

The US is advancing talks to revive an oil pipeline linking Iraq to Syria, aiming to create an export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and reduces Iran's potential leverage over global energy supplies, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.US Special Envoy for Syria and Iraq Thomas Barrack held discussions with Iraqi and Syrian officials and companies, including Chevron (CVX), on restoring the long-idled Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline. Bloomberg said a State Department official confirmed US support for rehabilitating the pipeline, with American firms expected to participate.US President Donald Trump also said Tuesday that new US-Iraq oil partnership announcements are expected within the next week, following a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi at the White House.The White House, US State Department, Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chevron did not immediately respond to requests for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$CVX
Oil & Energy

Hormuz Traffic Plunges as Renewed Iran-US Conflict Threatens Oil Flows

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran disrupt energy flows through the strategic waterway, according to shipping data released on Tuesday.Vessel transits via the Strait of Hormuz continued to decline on Monday, according to MarineTraffic data, which showed a total of 10 verified crossings, down by six from the previous day."Low risk commercial vessels accounted for the sharpest day on day reduction, while nine of the 10 crossings used the Iranian Route," according to MarineTraffic.MarineTraffic said that crew safety, insurance costs, and operational acceptance remain the primary constraints on transit decisions, as shipowners weigh whether transiting through the key chokepoint is commercially viable.TPH Energy strategists said the slowdown comes amid heightened security risks following deadly attacks on two UAE oil tankers, claimed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.The strikes have further restricted passage through the Strait, with shipping activity already heavily suppressed before the attacks.Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization, the UN's shipping agency, on Monday confirmed 53 maritime security incidents linked to the Middle East conflict.The deterioration in maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz comes just 26 days after the US and Iran signed a 60-day interim agreement, a framework that had temporarily reduced tensions and allowed limited oil flows to resume.TankerTrackers posted on X on Monday that during this period, over 80 million barrels of Iranian crude oil and refined products, worth over $6 billion at current prices, have left the region, including shipments in the weeks leading up to the agreement.However, with the US blockade now being reinstated, TankerTrackers said about 30 million barrels of Iranian crude oil may remain awaiting departure.Over 60 million barrels of floating storage capacity remain available to Iran within the blockade perimeter, potentially allowing Tehran to continue production while holding unsold crude offshore.The US blockade threatens to reverse the fragile recovery in Gulf shipping activity and could force traders to reassess the availability of Middle Eastern crude supplies.US Central Command posted on X that military forces had resumed the blockade against vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday."There are currently more than 20 US Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East," Centcom said.The latest escalation followed a series of retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran after Tehran moved to enforce restrictions on Hormuz traffic.The US Centcom conducted an additional round of strikes on Tuesday against Iran to hamper its ability to attack commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.The strategic waterway handles about one-fifth of global oil consumption and remains critical for exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar.TPH analysts said any prolonged disruption could tighten global crude markets, increase freight and insurance costs, and complicate energy flows into Asia.