FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Dangote Maintenance Cuts July Refinery Runs, Curtails Product Exports, Kpler Says

By

Nigeria's Dangote Refinery output fell to a three-month low in July as maintenance sharply reduced crude processing rates and curtailed refined product exports, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said in a note on Tuesday.

Crude runs have declined to around 350,000-400,000 barrels per day since July 10, limiting exports of gasoline, jet fuel and gasoil at a time when global refined product markets remain tight.

Dangote Refinery has emerged as a key swing supplier to the Atlantic Basin since March, increasing exports as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted regional product flows. The refinery's jet fuel exports to Europe became particularly important as buyers sought alternative supplies.

Following crude distillation unit and residue fluid catalytic cracking unit maintenance in February, crude runs increased steadily to 600,000-650,000 bpd, with June throughput approaching the refinery's expanded 700,000 bpd capacity. However, operational constraints at the refinery's 204,000 bpd RFCC continued to limit conversion efficiency.

The latest slowdown was triggered by maintenance linked to the refinery's flue gas steam generator. Unlike previous outages, the disruption is not directly related to the RFCC but has constrained overall refinery operations. Since July 10, the CDU has been operating at around 50% throughput, while RFCC utilization has fallen to approximately 55%, Ritolia said.

Kpler has revised its July crude throughput estimate to around 450,000 bpd, down from a previous forecast of 650,000 bpd. The reduction is expected to result in a shortfall of approximately 75,000 bpd of gasoline, 50,000 bpd of jet fuel and 40,000 bpd of gasoil.

The slowdown has pushed Dangote's seaborne refined product exports to their lowest level in three months, removing a significant source of Atlantic Basin supply as lower Russian refinery exports and constrained Middle Eastern Gulf flows continue to tighten markets.

Kpler expects maintenance to conclude in the final week of July, with the CDU returning to full rates shortly thereafter. RFCC operations are expected to gradually recover to 80%-90% utilization by early August, supporting a rebound in refinery runs to around 650,000-675,000 bpd during August and September.

However, Kpler said operational reliability remains a key risk, with the RFCC and associated units experiencing repeated maintenance cycles after several weeks of operation since start-up.

Related Articles

Commodities

Chevron Shuts In Petronius Output as Tropical Depression 2 Nears

Chevron (CVX) is shutting in production at its Petronius facility and moving workers ashore as Tropical Depression Two approaches the Gulf of Mexico, Chevron confirmed in an emailed statement toon Monday."In preparation for Tropical Depression Two, we are shutting-in production at our Petronius facility, and all associated personnel are being moved onshore," the spokesperson said.The company's spokesperson said production at its other company-operated Gulf of Mexico assets remains "at normal levels," while Chevron transports nonessential personnel from its Tubular Bells and Blind Faith platforms.The company said it has activated storm preparedness procedures at its onshore facilities and will continue monitoring the system while prioritizing worker safety, facility integrity and environmental protection.Tropical Depression Two could disrupt about 2 million barrels of crude oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about 14% of US crude output, as more high-producing offshore platforms lie in the storm's projected path, Reuters reported, citing Earth Science Associates estimates.Shell (SHEL), BP (BP), Chevron and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) rank among the largest deepwater operators in the US Gulf of Mexico, according to the Reuters report.Stretching from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Pascagoula, Mississippi, the Gulf Coast refining corridor accounts for about half of the nation's 18.4 million barrels-per-day refining capacity, the report added.

$CVX$OXY$SHEL
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: US Gas Prices Slide on Supply, Weather Pressures

US natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trading Monday as the market continued to focus on ample supply, cooler weather forecasts and lingering LNG maintenance, outweighing expectations for stronger demand later in July.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both fell by 2.54% to $2.837 per million British thermal units.Natural gas prices retreated Monday and remained just above last Thursday's two-month low, Barchart said. The Energy Buyers' Guide noted the front of the curve continues to trade near the bottom of its recent range and is now down more than 40 cents over the past month, mainly due to a lack of expected cooling demand.The Commodity Weather Group said forecasts shifted cooler, with below-average temperatures expected in the Northeast through July 24.Weather concerns intensified as traders monitored a tropical depression expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha, raising fears of disruptions to LNG export facilities along the US Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center said the system could bring tropical storm conditions from the Florida Panhandle westward to southern Louisiana on Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially reducing LNG exports and increasing domestic gas supplies.Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 18.0 Bcf/d on Monday, down 0.1 Bcf/d from Friday but up 0.5% from a week earlier, according to BNEF data cited by Barchart.Gelber & Associates said LNG feedgas held at 17.8 Bcf/d following Freeport LNG's partial recovery, with flows expected to approach 20 Bcf/d next week as maintenance concludes. While that should tighten market balances later this month, the firm said traders appear reluctant to price in stronger demand before higher consumption and export nominations are reflected in physical market data.Total lower-48 gas demand was 78.4 Bcf/d on Monday after exceeding 80 Bcf/d for most of last week. Celsius Energy said Sunday's power burn totaled 43.8 Bcf/d, down 2.4 Bcf/d from Saturday but 1.4 Bcf/d above year-ago levels. Gelber & Associates estimated power burn at 47.5 Bcf/d and said updated modeling added 17.5 Bcf to cumulative demand over the next two weeks as heat becomes more concentrated across the southern US.Lower-48 dry gas production was 113.0 Bcf/d on Monday, down 2.1 Bcf/d from Friday but up 3.9% year over year.

Commodities

June Renewable Fuel Credit Generation Rises, but 2026 Gap Remains, TPH Says

An increase in US renewable fuel credit generation in June is unlikely to eliminate an expected supply shortfall in 2026, a dynamic that should continue to support renewable fuel producers and feedstock suppliers, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Monday note.The outlook comes despite US renewable fuel credit generation rising in June as domestic production of renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel increased, according to US Environmental Protection Agency data released late last week.Total gross RIN generation increased to the equivalent of 2.27 billion credits in June, up from 2.14 billion in May and 2.01 billion a year earlier. The gain was driven primarily by D4 biomass-based diesel RINs, which rose to 839 million from 736 million in May and 630 million a year earlier, marking the third-highest monthly D4 total on record.D1 through D7 are classifications of RINs tied to different renewable fuels and compliance categories under the US Renewable Fuel Standard.The increase reflected stronger domestic output, with US utilization rates for RD, BD and SAF production climbing to 86% in June from 76% in May. Imports of renewable diesel and biodiesel edged higher but remained modest at 19 million gallons, accounting for about 4% of D4 RIN generation.While annualizing June's net RIN production would yield about 25.9 billion credits, exceeding the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation of 25.5 billion, Blair cautioned that June reflects seasonally strong D6 ethanol RIN generation. Using more typical D6 production levels produces an annualized total of roughly 25.1 billion RINs, below the federal mandate.Assuming D4 and D3 cellulosic biofuel generation remains at June's pace through year-end would result in only about 24.3 billion RINs, also well below the 2026 requirement. Under that scenario, the US would need substantially higher imports of RD, BD and SAF than seen in June to meet the RVO, likely requiring higher D4 RIN prices to attract additional supply.A tighter RIN market could continue to benefit renewable diesel producers and refiners with renewable fuel operations, while supporting demand for agricultural feedstocks used in renewable fuel production, Blair said.