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International
RBNZ Expected to Raise Cash Rate in July, BNZ Research Says
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points at its July meeting, according to a Monday report by BNZ Research.In order for the stimulatory monetary policy to not to add to inflation, the cash rate needs to get back to neutral relatively quickly, BNZ said. All key economic data ahead of the meeting have been released and were broadly consistent with the RBNZ's May projections, leading to the expected start of a tightening cycle.The oil futures markets imply that the Dubai Crude price closer to $68 pre barrel might be appropriate, compared with the central bank's assumption of around $101 per barrel across the quarter in May, BNZ said. This drop will have a marked impact on fuel price forecasts and the consumer price index.Falling oil prices are likely to stimulate spending, which adds to the possibility that inflation ceases to be supply driven but instead becomes demand driven.It forecast a 0.2% quarterly increase in the Household Labour Force measure of employment in the June quarter, taking the annual increase to 0.8%, BNZ said.Before the conflict, inflation concerns were already building, and there was a strong argument for higher interest rates even without an oil price shock, it added.
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International
Singapore Export, Import Prices Rise in May
Singapore's export prices rose 14.7% year over year in May, marking the third straight month of growth since March, according to data from the Singapore Department of Statistics on Monday.The latest pace of expansion accelerated from the 13.3% rise in April, but missed the 15% growth forecast by Trading Economics.Meanwhile, import prices jumped 19.1% year over year, quickening from the 18.9% increase in April. It also missed the Trading Economics forecast of a 24% growth.
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International
Reserve Bank of Australia Outlines Framework for Additional Monetary Policy Tools for Low Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia said its Monetary Policy Board has disclosed a framework outlining how it would approach the design and use of additional monetary policy tools in a low-interest rate environment, according to a Monday statement from the central bank.The bank said the toolkit features six tools, including term lending facilities, government bond purchase programs, forward guidance with commitment, negative interest rate policy, term rate targets, and foreign exchange asset purchases, with further tools able to be added over time.The Monetary Policy Board could use some of the tools for various purposes, including to stimulate aggregate demand when the policy rate is very low, to address market dysfunction and sustain or repair monetary policy transmission channels, and to meet its statutory obligations of contributing to financial stability, the bank said.When preparing advice for the board, staff will detail options for how tools could be exited, including planning both for the end of the policy and for the return to normal settings, it added.
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