Crude tanker rates hit new highs as escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz push shipping risks higher, Kpler said Monday.
About 24 successful strikes have emerged over the past two weeks, with eight attributed to the US and the rest to Iran, sharply raising risks for crude shipping.
Despite the attacks, US Navy convoys continue moving Gulf barrels, while owners and charterers remain willing to load under escort as higher risks translate into steeper freight costs.
Very Large Crude Carrier freight from the Middle East Gulf to China reached $24 per barrel, while Gulf of Oman cargoes climbed to $12/bbl.
Freight now accounts for 25% of crude value on Middle East Gulf shipments, up from 17% when the conflict began and about 5% before the war, Kpler said.
For Gulf of Oman cargoes, freight represents 11% of crude value, showing how shipping costs increasingly determine the delivered price Asian refiners pay.
Tanker rates outside the Middle East also reached their highest levels of the year as owners position ships for Gulf employment, leaving Atlantic Basin buyers competing harder for vessels.
That competition is spreading the Hormuz risk premium across global tanker routes, even where ships have no direct exposure to the Strait, Kpler said.
Kpler expects tanker rates to stabilize in the coming days, as another major increase in geopolitical risk would likely push the market toward fewer Gulf loadings instead of higher freight.
Continued attacks could therefore reduce crude availability and Gulf tanker demand rather than trigger another proportional freight surge, creating a ceiling for rates despite elevated shipping risks.
Higher freight costs are also pressuring Asian refiners, which need stronger refined-product margins to offset rising crude delivery expenses from the Middle East Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Refiners unable to pass those added costs to fuel buyers could face weaker economics, extending the tanker market squeeze across the broader oil complex, Kpler said.