Cargojet's (CJT.TO) second quarter 2026 flight activity is up 11% Y/Y QTD, CIBC Capital Markets said.
"As we pass the first two months of Q2/26, we track CJT's flight activity using AirNav Radar data," said CIBC.
CIBC observed that CJT's average daily flight activity in Q2/26 (as of May 27) is 70 flights per day, which compares to 63 flights per day for the same period in the prior year, representing a ~11% Y/Y increase. This would represent CJT's second consecutive Y/Y increase in quarterly flight activity, which has not occurred since the Q3/24 and Q4/24 period, stated CIBC.
On a Q/Q basis, CJT's Q2/26 (as of May 27) average daily flight activity is up 0.7%, said CIBC and added that this compares to the 2021-2025 seasonal average of up 0.3% Q/Q.
"We run a linear regression comparing CJT's flight activity to its adj. EBITDA from Q1/19 to Q1/26," said CIBC. "The linear regression equation is Adj. EBITDA (in 000s) = (20,005.58) + [16.25 x Flight Activity] with a correlation of 89% and R-squared of 79%."
CIBC noted, assuming the current ~11% Y/Y increase QTD holds through the remainder of the quarter, this implies an estimated Q2/26 flight activity of 6,193 flights for CJT. Applying the linear regression equation, this infers a quarterly EBITDA of ~$81MM, said CIBC.
"On the other hand, if we look at the monthly seasonality, June traffic has historically been down ~2% M/M versus May," stated CIBC.
Assuming a similar pattern this year, this would put Q2/26 flight activity at 6,482 flights and would imply a Q2/26 EBITDA of ~$85MM said CIBC and added that this compares to Q2/26 consensus EBITDA at $79MM and CIBC's estimate of $82MM.
"Note, there could be some timing-related drag from higher jet fuel prices in the second quarter, particularly as the fuel surcharge recapture mechanism lags the increase in spot fuel costs," added CIBC. "This is a transient headwind though."
The air freight market "continues to face macro turbulence", driven by ongoing trade uncertainty, higher fuel prices, and the conflict in the Middle East, said CIBC.
CIBC noted, CJT's flight activity continues to demonstrate that the company is navigating through these headwinds.
"It is clear that it does not operate within a siloed framework," added CIBC. "CJT's ability to shift its assets to the most revenue-maximizing opportunities highlights the resiliency of its business model."
Price: $85.99, Change: $-0.30, Percent Change: -0.35%