$CJT.TO

Cargojet's Q2/26 Flight Activity Up 11% Y/Y QTD, Says CIBC

Cargojet's (CJT.TO) second quarter 2026 flight activity is up 11% Y/Y QTD, CIBC Capital Markets said."As we pass the first two months of Q2/26, we track CJT's flight activity using AirNav Radar data," said CIBC.CIBC observed that CJT's average daily flight activity in Q2/26 (as of May 27) is 70 flights per day, which compares to 63 flights per day for the same period in the prior year, representing a ~11% Y/Y increase. This would represent CJT's second consecutive Y/Y increase in quarterly flight activity, which has not occurred since the Q3/24 and Q4/24 period, stated CIBC.On a Q/Q basis, CJT's Q2/26 (as of May 27) average daily flight activity is up 0.7%, said CIBC and added that this compares to the 2021-2025 seasonal average of up 0.3% Q/Q."We run a linear regression comparing CJT's flight activity to its adj. EBITDA from Q1/19 to Q1/26," said CIBC. "The linear regression equation is Adj. EBITDA (in 000s) = (20,005.58) + [16.25 x Flight Activity] with a correlation of 89% and R-squared of 79%."CIBC noted, assuming the current ~11% Y/Y increase QTD holds through the remainder of the quarter, this implies an estimated Q2/26 flight activity of 6,193 flights for CJT. Applying the linear regression equation, this infers a quarterly EBITDA of ~$81MM, said CIBC."On the other hand, if we look at the monthly seasonality, June traffic has historically been down ~2% M/M versus May," stated CIBC.Assuming a similar pattern this year, this would put Q2/26 flight activity at 6,482 flights and would imply a Q2/26 EBITDA of ~$85MM said CIBC and added that this compares to Q2/26 consensus EBITDA at $79MM and CIBC's estimate of $82MM."Note, there could be some timing-related drag from higher jet fuel prices in the second quarter, particularly as the fuel surcharge recapture mechanism lags the increase in spot fuel costs," added CIBC. "This is a transient headwind though."The air freight market "continues to face macro turbulence", driven by ongoing trade uncertainty, higher fuel prices, and the conflict in the Middle East, said CIBC.CIBC noted, CJT's flight activity continues to demonstrate that the company is navigating through these headwinds."It is clear that it does not operate within a siloed framework," added CIBC. "CJT's ability to shift its assets to the most revenue-maximizing opportunities highlights the resiliency of its business model."Price: $85.99, Change: $-0.30, Percent Change: -0.35%

Stifel Canada on Cargojet's "Solid" Q1

Cargojet (CJT.TO) reported solid first-quarter results despite the macro volatility, underpinned by resilient domestic network performance and growth in new charter business in South/Central America, notes Stifel Canada.Analyst Daryl Young, who is maintaining a buy rating and $120.00 price target on the company's shares, notes that, at first look, Cargojet's adjusted EBITDA of $81.9 million was 4.9% above consensus.Management provided a constructive outlook, with the domestic network performing well through April, while the new charter customers/routes are expected to smooth traditional seasonality across the year.Revenue associated with the grounding of the MD-11 jets last November is expected to continue through the third quarter of this year. The international aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI) business remains slow, but appears to have found a new run-rate for the north/south routes (east/west routes will still take time to recover), Young adds."Overall, we continue to think that CJT is doing a good job managing through the current depressed environment, with its fundamental results and share price poised to see upside as tariff/trade overhangs eventually fade."Price: $82.17, Change: $+4.47, Percent Change: +5.75%

CIBC Confirms Outperformer Rating on Cargojet and Raises Target to $125 on Q1 Results

CIBC Capital Markets maintained its outperformer rating on the shares of Cargojet (CJT.TO) and raised its price target to C$125 from C$122 after the company reported its first-quarter financial results on Monday.Cargojet "continues to demonstrate its ability to extract incremental value from its existing fleet through improved asset utilisation and flexible redeployment," it said. About 12 to 13 aircraft operated for DHL are now available up to three days per week "for incremental charter opportunities, materially improving aircraft and crew productivity while lowering idle time," the bank noted.CIBC has seen the company "continue to benefit from healthy domestic demand environment while offsetting shorter-haul ACMI flying with charter opportunities.""The air freight market continues to face macro turbulence, whether it is ongoing trade uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, or the Middle East conflict," said analyst Kevin Chiang. "CJT's Q1 results and outlook continue to demonstrate that the company is navigating through these headwinds."CIBC's 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecast move to $341 million from $331 million expected earlier and to $355 million from $353 million, respectively, to reflect the company's revenue outlook and the current fuel price environment. Its EPS forecast moves lower as it adjusts its D&A expenses higher, the bank added.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $82.50, Change: $+4.80, Percent Change: +6.18%

Cargojet Target Raised To C$108 From $104, Keeps Outperform at National Bk As Q1 Results "Demonstrate Resiliency As Charter Growth Offsets Lower ACMI Revenue"

Cargojet Target Raised To C$108 From $104, Keeps Outperform at National Bk As Q1 Results "Demonstrate Resiliency As Charter Growth Offsets Lower ACMI Revenue"

Earnings Flash (CJT.TO) Cargojet Inc. Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $0.60 per Share Vs $1.62 a Year Ago

Earnings Flash (CJT.TO) Cargojet Reports Q1 Total Revenue $254.7M, Up 1.9% Vs Last Year

RBC Changes Estimates for Canadian Trucking and Diversified Industrials

RBC Capital Markets outlined Monday estimate changes for Canadian trucking and diversified industrials equities ahead of the first-quarter earnings reporting season.RBC lowered Cargojet's (CJT.TO) price target to $140 from $143 while maintaining its outperform rating. The EBITDA estimate for the company was also decreased to $80 million from $83 million, driven by indication Canadian consumer spending on discretionary goods is pulling back.The EBITDA estimate for Mullen Group (MTL.TO) remained unchanged at $79 million while its price target increased to $19 from $17 with an outperform rating. RBC expects recent PMI readings and potential infrastructure investment to favorably affect demand and sentiment in the shares.RBC cut Stella-Jones (SJ.TO)'s price target to $93 from $95 and maintained its sector perform rating while its earnings per share estimate was reduced to $1.27 from $1.47. While RBC sees utility pole momentum continuing in 2026, RBC sees the Tie outlook as uncertain and flags risk given aggressive behavior from Stella's main competitor.Meanwhile, the EPS estimate for TFI International (TFII.TO) was unchanged at $0.65 while its price target remained at US$137 with an outperform rating. RBC said it is bullish on recent pricing trends and does not expect management to provide full year 2026 guidance given the uncertain backdrop.Westshore Terminals Investment (WTE.TO)'s price target increased to $39 from $34 while its outperform was maintained. The EBITDA estimate was also unchanged at $29 million.Price: $84.94, Change: $-0.95, Percent Change: -1.11%