Biomethane could emerge as a significant source of lower-emission fuel for the shipping industry by 2030, potentially supplying a large share of the sector's early compliance needs, the Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping said in a report on Wednesday.
Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center strategists said that global biomethane production could reach about 21 billion cubic meters by 2030 in a base-case scenario and as much as 52 billion cubic meters under more aggressive policy support.
The report shows that this compares with about 30 billion cubic meters of biomethane equivalent needed if the fuel were used to meet all additional low-emissions energy demand created by the IMO's draft Net-Zero Framework in 2030.
The Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center said that the question is less about whether the world has enough biomass and more about whether shipping can gain access to the broader gas system.
The IMO framework, which remains under negotiation, would introduce a Global Fuel Standard that progressively tightens limits on the greenhouse gas intensity of the energy used by ships.
The center estimates that the framework could create unconstrained demand for about 26 million metric tons of low-emission fuel on a light-fuel-oil-equivalent basis in 2030.
Biomethane is attractive as a near-term option because it is chemically equivalent to fossil methane.
Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center said this means it can be used by existing LNG-fueled vessels and can leverage much of the infrastructure already built for natural gas.
The development is expected to give biomethane an advantage over newer fuels such as green ammonia and e-methanol, which face higher production costs, renewable-power requirements, infrastructure constraints and challenges securing long-term customers.
Biomethane can also deliver very low, and in some cases negative, well-to-wake emissions depending on its feedstock, production method and the rules used to account for emissions.
The center estimates global biomethane production at about 10.6 billion cubic meters in 2025 across regions with available data.
Under its base case, production grows at a 15% compound annual rate through 2030, broadly consistent with the International Energy Agency's outlook for the gas market. That would take global supply to about 21 billion cubic meters.
A more aggressive scenario applies a 38% annual growth rate, based on the pace required in Europe to meet policy targets. That would lift global production to roughly 52 billion cubic meters by 2030.
Both estimates remain well below the much larger technical potential identified by the IEA, suggesting that feedstock availability isn't the main obstacle to near-term growth.
Instead, the constraints are more likely to involve infrastructure, certification, regulation and the ability to connect biomethane production with established gas and LNG value chains.
Meanwhile, even if biomethane production expands rapidly, shipping won't necessarily capture the available supply.
Road transport, industry, heating and other sectors are likely to compete for the same molecules, particularly where regulations or carbon prices make biomethane attractive.
Sectors with a greater willingness to pay could divert supplies away from maritime customers, potentially limiting the contribution biomethane can make to shipping's emissions reductions.