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Berenberg: Bank of England to Retain Key Rate in September Meeting; November Hike Possible

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Berenberg said the Bank of England "can probably afford" to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its Thursday monetary policy meeting, with a narrow 5-4 vote in favor of a hold versus a rate increase.

"We agree with the Bank of England (BoE) that the latest spike in energy prices is unlikely to trigger a new price-wage spiral, but it would probably be a mistake for the central bank to argue that it does not need to hike. The tightening in financial conditions that the BoE says will help prevent persistent inflation is predicated on the central bank raising the policy rate," the research firm said Wednesday in a preview note. "To keep this 'insurance policy' in place, the BoE must deliver at least some of the tightening priced in. Otherwise, it will fall behind other central banks and risk losing credibility."

Analysts also anticipate the BoE to indicate that it is heading toward a potential 25 basis-point increase at its next meeting in November amid expectations that a more prolonged period of high energy prices due to the Middle East conflict will push up the annual inflation rate to more than 3%, above the BoE's 2% target, for at least the next six months.

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International

New Zealand Parliament Approves India Free Trade Agreement

New Zealand's Parliament passed legislation for a free trade agreement with India by a 93-29 vote, Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said in a statement on Wednesday.The agreement will make 57% of New Zealand's exports to India duty-free from day one, with tariffs eliminated or significantly reduced on 95% of exports once fully implemented.The FTA is expected to enter into force this year after both countries complete their respective ratification procedures, the statement said.

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International

Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index Narrows in August

The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index narrowed to negative 0.09% in August from negative 0.17% in July, according to a report on Wednesday.The index indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future.Momentum has continued to improve and is only slightly below trend heading into later in the year and early 2027, Westpac Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting Matthew Hassan said.The June quarter national accounts showed the Australian economy holding up better than expected amid a global energy shock and higher interest rates, with growth stabilizing at a slow pace.Westpac now expects annual growth to slow 1.5% by the end of the year, up from its previous forecast of 1%, Hassan said.The growth pulse remains soft, with the leading index growth rate averaging negative 0.17% since the start of the year, which is milder than the negative 0.46% average during the cost-of-living crisis from 2022 to 2024.Rising fuel prices and potential interest rate hikes seem to be negatively affecting consumer sentiment, with indications that the downturn in established housing markets is also having an impact. These effects might worsen in the near term and could extend to other components.

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International

Further Widening of New Zealand's Current Account Deficit to Be Expected in the Wake of Higher Costs for Imported Energy, Other Products, Westpac Says

Further widening of New Zealand's current account deficit can be expected in coming quarters as the full impact of higher costs for imported energy and related products feeds into the data, Westpac said in a Wednesday report.New Zealand recorded a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of NZ$3.8 billion in the June quarter, narrowing NZ$666 million from the previous quarter. The current account deficit widened to 3.2% of GDP in the year to June, in line with expectations.For the second year in a row, the release of balance of payments data for the June quarter contained historical revisions to estimates of the current account deficit. The deficit for the year to March is now estimated at 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP), rather than the 3.6% of GDP deficit that was estimated previously.The key revisions concerned primary income flows, with new estimates pointing to higher returns earned on New Zealand's investment abroad and lower returns paid on foreign investments in New Zealand.The revisions have no implications for the bank's estimate of June quarter GDP growth, which remains 0.2%.New Zealand's international investment position improved in the June quarter, reflecting favorable changes to offshore asset valuations, falling to NZ$178.3 billion, or 39% of GDP, from NZ$191.7 billion, or 42.5% of GDP, in the March quarter. The liability is mostly related to debt, with net external debt reaching 49.4% of GDP in the June quarter.

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