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Bank of Canada's Q1 Business Outlook Survey Shows Many Firms Face Higher Input Costs Due to Rising Prices From the Iran War

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The Bank of Canada published its Q1 Business Outlook Survey (BOS) on Monday, after needing follow-up calls as a consequence of the Middle East war.

Results of follow-up calls suggest that many firms are already facing higher input costs due to rising prices for energy, fertilizer and freight linked to the Iran war, noted the BoC.

Others expect increases in the coming months as these costs are passed on by suppliers, added the central bank. Most firms' outlooks for sales, investment and employment are roughly unchanged.

The BOS was conducted from Feb. 5 to 25, before the Iran war began. This quarter's BOS also incorporates results from follow-up calls with participants conducted between March 18 and 27, after the start of the war in the Middle East, with firms selected based on their exposure to the economic effects of the war.

Survey evidence, gathered mostly before the war in the Middle East, shows that business sentiment improved slightly from last quarter to levels similar to those from before the trade conflict with the United States began, according to the BoC.

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National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For Next Week

National Bank noted the highlight of the week ahead will be the release of Consumer Price Index data for March on Monday. It said the surge in gasoline prices, a result of the conflict in the Middle East, will likely feed a 1.2% month-on-month rise in the headline index on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This could cause the 12-month rate to rise from 1.8% to 2.6%, the highest level since February 2025. Core inflation could remain "more stable", with both CPI-median and CPI-trim likely holding steady at 2.3% on a 12-month basis, National Bank added.Another key event will be the release of the retail sales report for February, next Friday. Based on previously released car sales data, spending on motor vehicles and parts is expected to have contributed positively to the headline figure, as is spending at gasoline stations, which could have benefited from higher pump prices, National Bank said. All told, goods outlays could have increased by 0.9% in the second month of the year. Excluding automobiles, sales could also have increased, albeit at a slightly slower pace (+0.7%), it added.National Bank will also keep an eye on the release of the March Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) on Thursday and the Bank of Canada's first-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) on Monday.

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CIBC On the Week Ahead In Canada Economics

According to Avery Shenfeld, nobody will be surprised to see headline CPI "take a big jump" in March on increases in gasoline. But, he said, it will be too soon to pick up any real news on the spillover from that for core inflation given that plane tickets that month were bought in advance, and non-food goods on the shelf had been shipped before diesel prices escalated. CIBC sees CPI up 1% in the month and 2.5% over the year, compared to a consensus of 1.1% and 2.6% respectively. The bank forecasts both CPI Core-Median and Trim will be up 2.3% year over year, compared to a consensus 2.4% and 2.3% respectively.Shenfeld said retail sales next Friday should show a "hefty" gain in February. He added while March could suffer from volume weakness outside gas stations, the Q1 picture for consumption looks to have been "quite good". While lower-income GST rebates and fuel excise tax cuts will cushion the blow, Q2 will take a hit from energy costs squeezing consumers, Shenfeld said. We'll need stronger employment numbers to get the retail sector on sustained growth path, he added. CIBC forecasts growth of 0.8% in both retail trade total and ex-auto for the month, versus a consensus of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.CIBC also awaits the release Monday of both the Q1 Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectation. Tuesday will see the auction of $16.4 billion in 3-M Bills, $5.8 billion in 6-M Bills and $5.8 billion in 1-YR Bills, followed Wednesday by the auction of $5 billion in 10-YR Canadas.Thursday will see the release of March Industrial Product Prices and Raw Materials data.

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