According to Avery Shenfeld, nobody will be surprised to see headline CPI "take a big jump" in March on increases in gasoline. But, he said, it will be too soon to pick up any real news on the spillover from that for core inflation given that plane tickets that month were bought in advance, and non-food goods on the shelf had been shipped before diesel prices escalated. CIBC sees CPI up 1% in the month and 2.5% over the year, compared to a consensus of 1.1% and 2.6% respectively. The bank forecasts both CPI Core-Median and Trim will be up 2.3% year over year, compared to a consensus 2.4% and 2.3% respectively.
Shenfeld said retail sales next Friday should show a "hefty" gain in February. He added while March could suffer from volume weakness outside gas stations, the Q1 picture for consumption looks to have been "quite good". While lower-income GST rebates and fuel excise tax cuts will cushion the blow, Q2 will take a hit from energy costs squeezing consumers, Shenfeld said. We'll need stronger employment numbers to get the retail sector on sustained growth path, he added. CIBC forecasts growth of 0.8% in both retail trade total and ex-auto for the month, versus a consensus of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.
CIBC also awaits the release Monday of both the Q1 Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectation. Tuesday will see the auction of $16.4 billion in 3-M Bills, $5.8 billion in 6-M Bills and $5.8 billion in 1-YR Bills, followed Wednesday by the auction of $5 billion in 10-YR Canadas.
Thursday will see the release of March Industrial Product Prices and Raw Materials data.