FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Australian Consumer Inflation Expected to Rise 0.4% in June, Westpac Says

By

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) for June is forecast to rise 0.4% on a monthly basis, raising the annual pace to 4.2% from 4% in May, Westpac Banking said in a Friday report.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, it expects a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis.

The increase on a monthly basis is expected to be driven by recreation and culture as well as housing, reflecting higher holiday travel, rents, and new dwelling purchase costs. This is expected to be partly offset by a sharp decline in automotive fuel prices.

Survey measures pointed to a moderation in cost pressures, with quarter-on-quarter purchase and output price growth slowing to 2% and 0.6%, respectively. Consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations also inched lower and reached around pre-conflict levels, though they remain elevated at 4.7%.

Monthly trimmed mean inflation is forecast to clock in at 0.4%, taking the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.6% in May. The quarterly trimmed mean is expected to rise 0.9%, bringing the annual rate to 3.7%.

Related Articles

International

Trump Administration Slaps Up to 12.5% Tariffs on 60 Nations Over Forced Labor Concerns

US President Donald Trump's administration on Thursday imposed new tariffs of up to 12.5% on South Korea, Japan and 58 other trading partners over forced labor concerns.The imposition of tariffs followed Section 301 investigations into whether these economies fail to prohibit or enforce a ban on imports made with forced labor, according to White House statement on Thursday.Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland face a net 12.5% cap, meaning their effective tariffs are reduced by their existing Most-Favored Nation (MFN) duties.Australia and China will face a straight 12.5% tariff on all goods while Taiwan and the European Union will see tariffs capped at a net 10% (the difference between the MFN rate and 10%).Southeast Asian nations received mixed treatment: Malaysia, Indonesia India, and Bangladesh were assigned a 10% tariff with additional textile tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) to encourage U.S. cotton and textile imports, while the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam were lumped into the 12.5% category.There is a proposed 10% tariff on goods from economies that have a forced labor import ban in place but are not yet effectively enforcing it.The six economies falling into this category are Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan.

ASX 200^BSEHang SengFTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI^KOSDAQ^KOSPINikkei 225Nifty 50^SETShanghai Composite^STI^SZSETaiwan Weighted
International

ANZ Expects 0.9% Quarter-on-Quarter Rise in Australia's Q2 Trimmed Mean Inflation

ANZ expects a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter rise in trimmed mean inflation in Australia in the second quarter, which would see annual growth print at 3.7% year on year, slightly below the Reserve Bank's 3.8% year-on-year forecast, according to a report released on Friday.A better-than-expected quarterly trimmed mean result and a slowing economy are anticipated to allow the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates on hold in August, ANZ said.The Reserve Bank is likely to remain alert regarding inflation risks due to the rising trend in the monthly trimmed mean measure, especially amid the renewed conflict in the Middle East.ANZ is anticipating a 0.4% month-on-month increase in June, bringing the three-month annualized rate to 4.3%.The trend in monthly data raises the likelihood of a November interest rate hike and the possibility of an August hike.

ASX 200
International

Australia's June Employment Data Shows Cooling Job Market Beneath Strong Headline, Jarden Says

The June employment data for Australia reveals a cooling job market beneath a strong headline, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to look past the headline into the detail, Jarden said in a Thursday note.Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained flat at 4.4% in June compared with the previous month, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed. The total number of employed people increased by 76,300, bringing the total to 14.8 million.The flat jobless rate came from participation rising alongside employment rather than the market tightening. Part of the increase was people who had lined up jobs in May, according to ABS, and the underlying pace of hiring has slowed sharply over the year.The three-month average employment growth slowed to around 0.25% in the quarter to June, compared with around 0.6% in the same period in the prior year.The strength in the jobs data was also narrow based on regions, with New South Wales and Western Australia seeing a 0.9% and 1% rise in employment, and the unemployment falling to 4% and 4.2%, respectively. The rest were softer.Underemployment rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.5%, rising 0.6 percentage points over the year, and broad under-utilization reached almost 11%, up around 0.7 percentage points over the year. This is the clearest signal in the release, and it shows spare capacity is still widening, Jarden said.

ASX 200