ANZ expects a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter rise in trimmed mean inflation in Australia in the second quarter, which would see annual growth print at 3.7% year on year, slightly below the Reserve Bank's 3.8% year-on-year forecast, according to a report released on Friday.
A better-than-expected quarterly trimmed mean result and a slowing economy are anticipated to allow the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates on hold in August, ANZ said.
The Reserve Bank is likely to remain alert regarding inflation risks due to the rising trend in the monthly trimmed mean measure, especially amid the renewed conflict in the Middle East.
ANZ is anticipating a 0.4% month-on-month increase in June, bringing the three-month annualized rate to 4.3%.
The trend in monthly data raises the likelihood of a November interest rate hike and the possibility of an August hike.