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Australian Consumer Confidence Falls Amid Rising Inflation Expectations

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The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence fell 1.9 points to 72 in the week of Sept. 14 to 20, ANZ reported Tuesday.

The four-week moving average fell 1.4 points to 73.2, per the report.

Australian consumer confidence remains near recent lows as renewed Middle East tensions and surging fuel prices weigh on economic outlooks and keep inflation expectations elevated, according to ANZ economist Sophia Angala.

Rising inflation risks and the prolonged Middle East conflict are expected to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25 basis points in both September and November, further weighing on near-term spending growth amid weak consumer confidence, Angala added.

Weekly inflation expectations rose to 6.1% from 5.9%, while the current financial condition indicator for 12 months rose 2.5 points to 69. The future financial conditions for the next 12 months decreased to 82.6 points from 83.4.

Short-term economic confidence for the next year fell 5.5 points to 61.1, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years decreased to 75.8 points from 77.6.

The "time to buy a major household item" subcategory fell 4.1 points to 71.4.

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Real GDP Growth Forecast Accuracy Varies; Differences Rarely 'Statistically Significant,' Research Says

One forecaster generally outperformed another when evaluating the accuracy of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations among forecasting organizations for individual economies, but the differences are often not "statistically significant," according to a research discussion paper released by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Monday.The researchers studied the properties of real GDP forecasts by four international organizations, comprising the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Commission and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.The findings suggest that the differences may result from chance rather than indicate better forecasting ability.Conversely, the researchers found statistically significant deviations from forecast rationality for each forecaster, with common reasons including optimistic bias, excessive revisions, and extreme forecasts.

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