Asia Markets
Update: US Equity Indexes Climb as Unexpected Decline in Inflation Helps Counter Sharp Deterioration in Iran Geopolitics
(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose, as a boost from an unexpected drop in producer price inflation helped outweigh a worsening geopolitical environment, including potential complex military operations against Iran and an emerging threat to shut down the maritime gateway to the Red Sea.The Nasdaq rose 0.6% to 26,269.23, the S&P 500 climbed 0.4% to 7,572.40, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.3% to 52,658.64 on Wednesday. Communication services and consumer discretionary topped the gainers, while utilities led the decliners.The US Producer Price Index fell 0.3% in June after a 0.6% increase in May, below consensus for no change in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Core PPI rose 0.2%, slower than the 0.3% gain expected and a 0.1% rise in May. PPI was up 5.5% year-over-year in June, versus the 6% gain in May, while core PPI climbed 4.7%, up from 4.6% in May.Fed policy is likely to remain unchanged given the divide between inflation optimists and pessimists, Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said in a note. Following the PPI data, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 90% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, up from 84% on Tuesday, with the rate-pause likelihood also increasing for September, October, and December. Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year yield falling four basis points to 4.55% and the two-year sliding 6.3 basis points to 4.13%.Geopolitically, the strikes on Iran aimed at forcing open the Strait of Hormuz are also targeting capabilities that the US would like destroyed before executing complex operations in the country, Reuters reported, citing three US officials. The officials said the strikes effectively strengthen Trump's additional military options.In response, Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard threatened to halt all energy exports from the Middle East over the blockade of its ports, the Associated Press reported. "The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one," the Guard was cited as saying. Iran is also signaling it could use Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most important energy arteries at risk, a separate report from Reuters said.Despite these tensions, crude oil futures traded off session highs following US inventory data. Brent rose 0.4% to $85.05 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate climbed 0.5% to $79.71 a barrel.US commercial crude oil stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended July 10, below the 1.8 million-barrel slide forecast in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels during the same period in the US summer driving season, smaller than the 2.0-million-barrel slide expected. Distillate stocks, which power the supply chain comprising commercial trucking and freight trains, rose by 4.6 million barrels, compared with an expected drop of 2.0 million barrels.In company news, Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier ASML (ASML) reported growth in Q2 earnings and sales and raised revenue guidance for the full-year 2026.Mega-cap banks continued to post strong results. Morgan Stanley's (MS) Q2 sales beat the outlook, with robust investment banking and trading driving the top line higher year over year. BlackRock (BLK) also reported higher Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue, and The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) reported Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue above market expectations.
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