Chinese Producer Prices Return to Inflation After 41 Months of Declines
Chinese producer prices ended 41 consecutive months of declines in March, returning to inflation for the first time since 2022.Factory-gate prices rose 0.5% last month, reversing the 0.9% decline in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday.Median estimates by analysts polled by Bloomberg and Reuters saw inflation of 0.4%.Analysts at ING believe that the return to inflation in producer prices could translate to reflationary momentum across the Chinese economy.Producer price inflation was most evident in a 5.2% year-over-year increase in the oil and gas extraction industry prices, up from a 14.8% fall in the first two months, ING analysts said.However, Macquarie analysts say the PPI rebound is a one-off cost shock rather than reflation, also due to oil prices.Non-ferrous metals, computer and telecom, and coal and steel producer prices also drove upward PPI, Macquarie said.Meanwhile, the consumer price index, a measure of inflation, rose 1% year over year in March, slower than the 1.3% increase in February.Chinese consumer price increases were slower than the 1.2% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, went up 1.1%.The deceleration was due to normal price declines following the Chinese New Year festivities, ING said.Pork prices slid 11.5% year over year, the National Bureau of Statistics said.On a monthly basis, CPI ticked down 0.7%, the statistics bureau said.