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Global Manufacturing PMI Dropped In March On Middle East War, notes ABN Amro

After having risen to a 44-month high of 51.8 in February, the global manufacturing PMI dropped back to 51.3 in March, notes ABN Amro.In a note to clients the bank said this seems to be, to a large extent, related to the escalation of the conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran, which started on Feb. 28Accoring to ABN Amro, the deterioration in March was led by emerging markets (EM), with the EM aggregate falling back to 50.7 from February's 52.0.The bank said this was partly driven by China's manufacturing PMI from RatingDog (included in the global index), which fell back to 50.8 following a one-month surge to 52.1 in February. This largely reflects a weakening of export prospects due to the Iran conflict, with China's export subindex dropping sharply again following a spike in February, it added.ABN Amro noted the manufacturing PMI for India dropped even more sharply, reflecting the country's large dependence on oil imports coming from the Middle East.The agreed ceasefire between the U.S./Israel and Iran could mean that the impact from the conflict ultimately proves temporary, although the agreement still looks fragile and it is too early for strong conclusions on this point, noted the bank.

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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Keeps Risk Premium Elevated

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 1.25% at 45.86 euros ($53.59) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 1.65% to 116.13 pence ($1.54) per therm.The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran came under strain over Israeli strikes on Lebanon which the BBC reported killed at least 203. Tehran has called the strikes a breach of the truce.On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place in, and around, Iran," until a complete agreement is reached.Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.US Centcom Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper provided an update on Operation Epic Fury on Thursday, saying that joint efforts by US and Israeli forces had led to a "generational military defeat" for Iran, which he said has left the country unable to "project power beyond its own borders".According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will face "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.Analysts at Wood Mackenzie shared similar concerns, noting that even with the Strait open, it would take weeks or even months before the Middle East's shut-in capacity starts to come online.The firm estimated that even if Qatar begins to restart its Ras Laffan LNG facilities on Thursday, the full restoration of all 12 of its trains could take until the end of August. At the same time, its damaged capacity at the South site might remain offline for several years.This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Asia Markets19d ago

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Thursday as Fragile Middle East Ceasefire Lifts Oil Prices

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.4% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.3% lower in Thursday's premarket activity as doubts over the durability of a Middle East ceasefire lift oil prices.US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down 0.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures retreating 0.4% before the start of regular trading.US initial jobless claims rose to a level of 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from an upwardly revised 203,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for a smaller increase to 210,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg.Personal income declined 0.1% in February following January's 0.4% gain, compared with the expected 0.3% gain in a survey conducted by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET.US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.5% increase in Q4 from a 0.7% gain in the second estimate, compared with estimates for no revision in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET.Wholesale inventory data for February are due to be released at 10 am ET, followed by weekly natural gas stocks data at 10:30 am ET.In premarket activity, bitcoin was down by 0.3%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.2% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) fell 1.5%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was flat.Power Play:ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) retreated marginally by 0.01%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was 0.01% higher, and the iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was up 0.5%. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.1%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 1.3% lower.Simply Good Foods (SMPL) shares were down more than 19% pre-bell after the company posted lower fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings and net sales.Winners and Losers:FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) retreated 0.6%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 1.7%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 1.9% higher.Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares were up more than 11% pre-bell after the company said it has agreed to be acquired by Ares Management (ARES) for $19 per common share or operating partnership unit in an all-cash deal valued at about $1.70 billion. Ares stock was 1.5% higher.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) retreated 0.2%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.1% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 0.1%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) declined by 0.3%.Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) shares were down more than 2% in premarket activity, a day after the company said it plans to sell up to $60 million of its common shares via an at-the-market offering.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) retreated by 0.1%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was down 0.1%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was flat. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 0.7% lower.Novartis (NVS) stock was down more than 1% premarket after closing the prior session with a 2% gain. The company said Thursday it will expand its programs to find and treat patients with heart disease and cancer in "hard-to-reach" communities worldwide.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) declined by 0.7%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.4% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was down 0.8%.American Airlines Group (AAL) stock was down more than 1% before the opening bell, a day after the Federal Aviation Administration said the airline should pay a $255,000 civil penalty for allegedly breaching drug and alcohol regulations.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was up 0.2%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) advanced by 0.5%.Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock was up more than 1% before Thursday's opening bell after the company said it had discovered oil at the Bandit prospect, co-owned by Chevron (CVX) and Woodside Energy (WDS), in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron stock was 0.8% higher, while Woodside advanced 0.5%.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 4.4% to $98.57 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas retreated by 0.2% to $2.72 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up by 2%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.3% lower.Gold futures for May were up by 0.1% at $4,781.00 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures declined by 1% to $74.60 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 0.4% higher, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) advanced by 0.03%.

$^DJI$^IXIC$^SPX$AAL$AEHR$ARES$BETH$BITO$CVX$EEM$EETH$EXI$FAS$FAZ$GLD$IBB$IGM$IGV$IPK$IVV$IWM$IYE$IYH$IYJ$IYK$IYW$NVS$OXY$PMR$QQQ$RTH$SLV$SMPL$SOXX$SPY$UNG$USO$VDC$VHT$VIS$WDS$WSR$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLV$XLY$XRT$XSD

US Markets19d ago

Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Truce; Key Inflation Report on Deck

US equity markets were trending lower before the opening bell Thursday as investors assess uncertainty over the recent two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, and await a key inflation report.The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3% each in premarket activity, while the Nasdaq was off 0.2%. The indexes finished Wednesday's trading in the green, recording their highest close in at least four weeks.In a Wednesday post on X, Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US violated three clauses of Tehran's 10-point ceasefire proposal. The violations include Israel's attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace and the denial of Tehran's right to enrich uranium, according to Ghalibaf."The deep historical distrust we hold toward the (US) stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments - a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again," Ghalibaf said. "In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable."In a late Wednesday post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said US ships, aircraft and military personnel will "remain in and around Iran" until the "real agreement reached is fully complied with.""It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - no nuclear weapons and, the Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe," according to Trump.On Tuesday, Trump announced that he agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, subject to Tehran agreeing to the complete and safe opening of the strait, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi had said in a statement that the country will allow "safe passage" through the strait during the two-week ceasefire through coordination with its armed forces and "with due consideration of technical limitations."Delegations from both countries are scheduled to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan on Friday to negotiate a "conclusive agreement to settle all disputes," Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Tuesday.West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.5% to $97.70 a barrel before the open, while Brent increased 3.3% to $97.87."The headlines may calm down first, but the real reset depends on what happens in the days ahead," Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said in a report Wednesday.The delayed personal income and outlays report for February is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET. The report includes the personal consumption expenditure core price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed Wednesday that participants emphasized the need for the central bank to be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy amid heightened macro risks. Most policymakers were concerned that a prolonged war could soften labor market conditions, possibly warranting policy easing, according to the minutes. However, persistent inflation amid higher oil prices could call for rate increases.Markets widely expect the Fed to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its next policy meeting later in April, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate retreating 0.5 basis points to 3.79% and the 10-year rate off 0.4 basis points to 4.29%.Thursday's economic calendar also has the delayed final estimate report for the fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 am, as well as the weekly jobless claims report.Shares of Constellation Brands (STZ) declined 0.9% pre-bell after the beer and wine company issued a full-year earnings outlook below Wall Street's estimates.Neogen (NEOG), BlackBerry (BB) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) report their latest financial results before the bell, among others. WD-40 (WDFC) posts its earnings after the markets close.Gold sipped 0.5% to $4,752 per troy ounce, while bitcoin nudged up 0.2% to $71,399.

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Financial News · Live Terminal

Global Manufacturing PMI Dropped In March On Middle East War, notes ABN Amro

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Keeps Risk Premium Elevated

Global Manufacturing PMI Dropped In March On Middle East War, notes ABN Amro

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Keeps Risk Premium Elevated

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Thursday as Fragile Middle East Ceasefire Lifts Oil Prices

Alleged Ceasefire Violations in Middle East, Shipping Halt in Strait of Hormuz Dampen US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

Ares Management to Acquire Whitestone REIT in $1.7 Billion Take-Private Deal

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Rebounds Over 3% Amid Fears of Ceasefire Collapse

Tadawul Shares End Week Subdued; Saudi Arabia's Industrial Production Rises in February

Alberta, Quebec Unlikely To Separate From Canada But May Drive Volatility In Currency, Bond Markets This Fall, Says Rosenberg Research

Afreximbank Backs Dangote's Expansion to Double Refinery Capacity

UAE Equities Close Lower Ahead of Key US Economic Data

Global Markets Return to "Reality" on Fragile Iran War Ceasefire, Says Scotiabank

Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Truce; Key Inflation Report on Deck

Persian Gulf Uncertainty Damps European Bourses Midday

Middle East Oil, Gas Output Recovery to Take Months Despite Hormuz Ceasefire, Warns Wood Mackenzie

Oil, Ceasefire Views Damp Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia, Europe Off

Germany's Manufacturing Production Contracts in February on Lower Pharmaceuticals, Electronics Output

Indian Equities Slip on Thursday Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

Canada's Provincial Bond Valuations "Hint" at An Oil Exposure Premium, Says National Bank

Middle East War Dents Japan Consumer Confidence

Japan Machine Tool Orders Jump 28% in March