Commodities
BP Expects 'Exceptional' Oil Trading Performance in Q1, Flags Higher Debt
British oil and gas giant BP (BP) said on Tuesday that it expects "exceptional" results from its oil trading business for Q1 2026, amid the spike in prices driven by the US and Israeli war against Iran.This marks a sharp shift compared to the segment's "weak" performance during Q4 2024. However, the gas trading business is expected to perform broadly in line with prior quarter figures, according to the company's Q1 trading statement, providing estimates for the quarter.Meanwhile, upstream production is expected to remain flat compared to the prior quarter, at 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while gas production is expected to be "slightly higher."In its report, the company noted that Brent prices averaged $81.13 per barrel during Q1, compared to $63.73 the prior quarter, while Henry Hub prices stood at $5.05 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit, against $3.55 per MMBtu.Refining margins too witnessed an uptick, at $16.9 per barrel, from $15.2, which the company said could help boost results in its refined products business by $100 million to $200 million.The company, however, warned that net debt was set to rise from $22 billion in the previous quarter, to between $25 and $27 billion, due to "a significant working capital build" in the range of $4 billion and $7 billion.Analysts at Citigroup have raised their earnings outlook for BP by 20%, expecting Q1 adjusted net income of $2.6 billion, as a result of the company's high trading income during this period, alongside higher oil and gas prices since the beginning of the Middle East conflict.
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