International
Canada's Population Drop May Be Smaller Than Reported, CIBC Says
Much of Canada's population decline may be overstated due to how non-permanent residents (NPRs) are captured in the headcount estimates, according to CIBC Capital Markets in a note.Statistics Canada reported that the country's population fell by 55,025 in the first quarter of 2026 and by 234,597 since July 2025, suggesting a potential reversal after several years of rapid population growth.Following the introduction of tighter immigration policies in late 2024, many expired permits were treated as population outflows, even though some individuals remained in Canada under extensions or other valid statuses, wrote CIBC in Friday's note."These individuals, however, were not fully captured in Statistics Canada's population estimates," said CIBC.StatsCan has indicated that its September release will include significant revisions to recent population estimates, likely increasing the number of recognized NPRs.The bank's analysis suggests these revisions could add about 160,000 people to 2025 population growth and around 210,000 in both 2026 and 2027, reversing the narrative of population decline.The revisions also carry implications for labor market statistics, as the Labour Force Survey incorporates NPR adjustments gradually. This lag could temporarily distort key indicators, including employment and unemployment rates, according to CIBC.
$CXY
