Treasury
Jobs in Resource-Heavy Regions in Canada Are Strong But Manufacturing Heartland Shows Weakness, Says BMO
Canadian employment fell by 95,000 in Q1, the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic, although following an even larger gain in Q4 2025, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The big picture is that job growth has been very mellow over the past year, and the jobless rate is down a tick, noted the bank, after Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS).However, this is masking widening regional variation below the surface, stated BMO.Ontario has the highest unemployment rate outside Newfoundland & Labrador at 7.6%, near the widest (non-pandemic) gap on record relative to Canada overall, pointed out the bank.In the West, Alberta's jobless rate has now fallen below British Columbia's, which BMO hasn't seen on a sustained basis since the mid-2010s energy boom. While combined employment across B.C., Ontario and Quebec is down 0.4% year over year, growth has accelerated to 4% year over year in Alberta.Job-market performance across Canada's cities shows clear strength in resource-heavy markets -- Calgary, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Regina and Sudbury make up the top five, pointed out the bank. But, clear weakness in the manufacturing heartland -- London, Windsor, St. Catharines, Barrie and Kitchener round out the bottom five.London's 9.1% unemployment rate is now the highest in Canada.While some of this might reflect a bigger falloff in population growth within the LFS (Southern Ontario is getting hit disproportionately hard by non-permanent resident caps), these job market results are consistent with BMO's broader economic view, marked by United States trade tension and an oil price spike.
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