Commodities
Market Chatter: Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Within Weeks as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy
Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel remaining, the head of the International Energy Agency reportedly warned Thursday, raising the prospect of imminent flight disruptions if energy supplies continue to be constrained by the conflict with Iran.In an interview with the Associated Press, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as the most severe energy crisis in modern history, driven by the disruption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments."I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel," he said.The supply shock is already pushing up fuel, gas and electricity prices worldwide, with broader economic consequences expected to intensify the longer the situation continues. Birol warned that inflationary pressures and slower economic growth are likely outcomes across multiple regions.While all countries will feel the effects, he said the burden will fall disproportionately on developing economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America."Some countries may be richer than the others. Some countries may have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis," he said.He cautioned that without a resolution that ensures the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, shortages of refined oil products could worsen, further straining global supply chains.Birol also voiced concern over Iran's reported use of a "toll" system for vessels transiting the strait, warning it could establish a dangerous precedent for other strategic waterways."If we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back," he said. "It will be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there," he said, pointing to key shipping routes in Asia.Meanwhile, the physical toll of the conflict on energy infrastructure could prolong the crisis even if hostilities ease. According to Birol, over 80 major energy facilities in the region have been damaged, with over one-third suffering severe destruction.He said more than 100 oil tankers and several liquefied natural gas carriers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, limiting their ability to alleviate shortages.Even under optimistic conditions, Birol said, restoring energy production to prewar levels could take months, or as long as two years.It will take "up to two years to come back where we were before the war," he said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)