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Bank of Canada Is in No Hurry to React to Higher Oil Prices, Says Desjardins
The Bank of Canada's Governing Council left rates unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday and signaled that elevated oil prices won't do much to boost gross domestic product or underlying inflationary pressures, said Desjardins.For its projections, the BoC assumed that Brent oil prices will fall to around US$75/barrel by mid-2027, roughly in line with the bank's forecasts.That said, policymakers expect investment and employment to be less responsive to higher crude prices than in the past, leaving real gross domestic product up just 1.2% in 2026, while previously it saw at 1.1%. So while the composition of growth will look different -- many households and businesses will be squeezed by higher energy costs even as some firms and governments benefit -- the economy is still expected to absorb slack only slowly this year, stated Desjardins.The good news is that officials share the bank's view that spillovers to core inflation will be limited. The BoC expects core inflation to end 2026 at 2.0%, which is actually a touch lower than the 2.1% penciled in back in January's Monetary Policy Report (MPR).The commentary accompanying the rate decision also highlighted the favorable starting point for underlying inflation, with the BoC's preferred core measures just slightly above 2% in March and the proportion of components rising above 3% also having declined in recent months. So while officials acknowledged the cost pressures associated with high oil prices, they implied that their operational target, underlying inflation, wouldn't be impacted, added the bank.Wednesday's MPR also included projections for an alternative scenario in which oil prices remain around US$100 per barrel. Even in that scenario, the economy is expected to struggle over the next few years, as many households and businesses would face higher costs and the benefits of elevated crude prices would translate into increased activity in oil-producing regions with a lag.That said, the forecasts include a further rise in headline inflation, which is substantially more persistent and broad-based than in the base case projections. Governor Tiff Macklem appears to suggest that such a situation could warrant consecutive increases in the policy rate, according to Desjardins.Overall, the BoC appears comfortable leaving rates unchanged for the rest of the year, unless oil prices remain high, added the bank. Assuming oil prices decline to levels consistent with their assumptions, the central bank's communications suggest that any changes in the target rate will be small.Desjardins takes that to mean that once the economy recovers to full health, central bankers will raise the policy rate gradually to 2.75%, the mid-point of their estimated neutral rate range. The bank's expectation is that those rate increases aren't in the cards until 2027.
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