Treasury
RBC Previews This Week's Macroeconomic Data in Canada
The week ahead is relatively quiet for major Canadian data releases, but industry reports will offer important signals about the economy's momentum heading into spring, said RBC.Early signs from Statistics Canada's advance estimates suggest wholesale trade for April on Thursday and manufacturing sales on Friday should show the sectors finding their footing after significant disruptions to motor vehicle production earlier in the year, noted the bank.Early estimates showed March manufacturing sales rising 3.5% month over month, lifted by the oil and coal product subsector as energy prices surged amid escalating Middle East conflicts, along with further recovery in the transportation sector.Separately reported data from the Industrial Product Price Index suggests about half the increase was due to higher prices, but that would still leave 'real' sales up about 1.7%.This is "significant" because the sector has been under pressure, stated RBC. As of February, manufacturing was still running below levels a year ago, weighed down by product-specific tariffs on products like steel and aluminum, as well as the motor vehicle sector.Yet, recent data points to a steadying trend, added the bank. Both trade flows and manufacturing output have shown signs of stabilization and United States tariffs have been broadly edging lower.Wholesale trade tells a similar story, pointed out RBC. The advance indicator showed core sales, which exclude the price-related increases in oil and related products, rose 1.3% month over month in March.Housing data for April will also be released this week, according to the bank. Early results from local real estate boards show more sellers entering the market, with new listings reaching record levels in Montreal and Ottawa. Home resales rose month-over-month in Toronto, which were up 6.1%, Calgary and Edmonton, though remained weaker year-over-year in most markets.Buyers continue to hold stronger negotiating power in Vancouver and Toronto, where ample inventory is sustaining price corrections -- Toronto's MLS HPI fell 6.5% year-over-year while Vancouver's dropped 6.9%.The spring season has yet to deliver a clear boost to demand, with confidence constrained by trade uncertainty, job market concerns and affordability challenges, concluded the bank.
$CXY